Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly instructed the Russian General Staff to calculate multiple pathways for new offensive operations to capture Kyiv.
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that these plans include potential strike scenarios from Belarusian territory and the Russian region of Bryansk targeting the Chernihiv region.
Ukraine War Map. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
While Belarus has made a lot of noise about Ukraine, it has thus far stayed clear of becoming more actively involved.
But it is possible that Russia could use it as a staging ground for another offensive aimed at Kyiv, which failed miserably in 2022 with heavy casualties.
Is Kyiv The Target Or Chernihiv?
In an interview with TSN on June 30, Syrskyi stated that Putin had previously instructed the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to develop multiple pathways for a renewed offensive, including potential operations launched from Belarusian territory to capture the capital and its surrounding areas.
However, Syrskyi noted that he doesn’t believe Kyiv is the actual target, but he sees a direct strike from the Bryansk region toward Chernihiv as the most probable scenario.
Russian military planners are assessing potential operations launched from Belarus. However, Ukrainian leadership remains skeptical that Belarus will allow its territory to be used as a staging ground.
Bohdan, a drone pilot from the Unmanned Systems Battalion of Ukraine’s 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, pilots an FPV drone in Donetsk Oblast during active battle operations. Photo: David Kirichenko
Fifteen Deadlines, Still No Objectives Met
This latest Putin announcement should be taken seriously, but tempered with the reality of the situation on the ground.
As President Zelenskyy pointed out, Putin has set 15 deadlines for the taking of the Donetsk Oblast, and the Russians have still yet to accomplish one of their primary objectives from the start of the invasion four and a half years ago.
The Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its June 30 assessment of Russia’s offensive, “The Kremlin’s deadlines for its military objectives continue to be divorced from the reality of Russian forces’ battlefield performance.
Russian forces advanced on average 3.79 square kilometers per day in June 2026 — a rate far below Russian forces’ previous rate of advance in August 2025, when Russian forces advanced at a rate of 16.65 square kilometers per day.
“Russian forces still need to seize about 5,305 square kilometers to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and are highly unlikely to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the newly set deadline of December 31, 2026.
“Russian forces have shown no ability to rapidly advance or restore operational maneuver in Donetsk Oblast.”
The ISW added that Russian commanders were submitting “beautiful reports” where battlefield gains were largely exaggerated and in some cases…fabricated.
Ukraine Orders Evacuations Of Several Border Towns
Ukrainian authorities, after considering the risks of such an incursion, have ordered the mandatory evacuation of 12 border settlements in the Chernihiv region starting July 1, and extended evacuation orders for 7 additional towns that were cleared last winter.
Syrskyi said he doesn’t believe the attack will come from Belarus because of the numerous marshlands, which make it difficult to move heavy equipment.
The German Army during World War II struggled to move troops and equipment through the Pripet Marshes in Belarus (then Byelorussia) and faced horrific conditions trying to nail down Soviet partisans.
The terrain would definitely favor Ukraine’s defenses in any attack from the Belarus border region.
Also, the Ukrainians have not observed any large troop buildups along the Belarus border; rather, they expect the attack to come from the Russian Bryansk region directly into the Chernihiv area, in an attempt to extend the line of fighting and force Ukrainians to divert forces from elsewhere, possibly the Donbas region.
“Considering recent events, I do not think that the leadership of Belarus will dare to provide the aggressor with its territory to use as a staging ground for conducting an offensive operation.
At the same time, we are taking such an option into account,” Syrskyi said.
Ukraine Drone Strikes Hit Moscow Satellite Center Again
Ukrainian drones struck a satellite communications center in the Moscow region in an aerial attack on Tuesday, as Moscow claimed to have shot down 419 drones launched into its territory overnight.
Ukrainian President Volodymry Zelenskyy said Ukraine struck the site, the “Dubna” space communications center, for the second time.
“This is a specialized satellite communications facility used, among other things, for intelligence gathering and coordinating the activities of Russia’s occupying forces in Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.
“Recently, our Defense Forces of Ukraine already reached four such Russian centers, not only in the Moscow region but also in the Vladimir region,” he said.
“Step by step, we are implementing our plan of long-range sanctions and making it as difficult as possible for the aggressor state to carry out its invasion operations against Ukraine and the occupation of our territories,” he added.
Ukrainian drones also struck the JSC Research Institute of Physical Measurements (NIIFI), a Russian defense-industry enterprise in the Penza region and one of Russia’s leading manufacturers of space, aviation, and military instrumentation.
The enterprise is part of Russian Space Systems, a subsidiary of the state-owned Roscosmos corporation, and manufactures sensors for Iskander, Kalibr, and Kh-101 missiles, components for Su-34, Su-35, and Tu-95MS aircraft, as well as equipment for Russian military satellites, according to the Kyiv Independent.
From all outward appearances, Belarus will continue to stay out of the fighting.
Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that he does not want to fight Ukraine, and Ukrainian intelligence reported that Belarus switched off the signal repeaters on its territory that Kyiv says had helped guide Russian drone attacks.
But without Belarus entering the fray, Putin would have to call up further reserves to man a large enough force for this new invasion against Ukraine. And that seems unlikely at present.
Meanwhile, Herman Gref, head of Russia’s largest state-owned bank, Sberbank, stated that the most critical issue for all Russian citizens was the swift end to the war with Ukraine.
Speaking at the bank’s annual general meeting, Gref said the public’s desire for peace has united the population, with independent polling showing that 81 percent of Russians favored an immediate halt to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
