Key Points and Summary – Frustration is growing in the West over Vladimir Putin’s “stalling” of Ukraine peace talks, but the reason may lie in the East.
-The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in China offers Putin a critical opportunity to meet with friendly leaders from across Asia and the Middle East.
-For Moscow, the summit is a chance to gauge the strength of its partnerships, find ways to counter Western sanctions, and determine if a compromise with the West is even necessary.
-With a struggling economy at home, the outcome of this meeting could ultimately decide Putin’s entire negotiating strategy.
Is This Upcoming Summit the Reason Putin Is Stalling Ukraine Talks?
Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to welcome more than 20 world leaders at the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a show of unity of countries spanning Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East.
The meeting is set to take place in Tianjin between August 31 and September 1.
The news comes amid threats from Washington of new sanctions against Russia and additional secondary sanctions on countries trading with the country. It could also explain, in part, why European leaders are growing frustrated over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “stalling” of talks with Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz accused Putin this week of dragging out negotiations, just as progress appeared to be finally being made.
A meeting with friendly nations, however, could ultimately influence how Putin approaches negotiations – and even decide whether or not he goes ahead with a trilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
While it could be easily argued that the war in Ukraine will ultimately end with concessions to Russia, or a simple Russian victory, Moscow’s ability to repair its economy and establish a stronger sphere of allies could well influence decisions made during this critical period of negotiations with the West – and the upcoming SCO summit gives Putin a chance to discuss everything from trade deals and diplomacy and to gauge how world leaders might respond to secondary sanctions that Washington could soon implement.
With that in mind, it’s hard to imagine progress being made with Western leaders in the coming days, with the Kremlin likely focusing on how to approach upcoming talks in China. Not only is Moscow likely curious to hear what Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to say about U.S. tariffs and sanctions, given India is one of Russia’s largest purchasers of oil, but a combination of domestic matters and military capacity will ultimately determine the extent to which he is willing to make concessions.
Domestically, Russia is facing an economic crisis that goes beyond international trade. Massive defense spending is strangling the civilian economy, with the country facing a labor shortage that could require as many as 11 million new workers before the end of the decade, fuelled in part by conscription.
In terms of military capacity, however, Russia can continue the war in Ukraine for some time.
While North Korea provides thousands of new troops, Russia’s annual artillery shell output has reached 4.5 million – and that figure only keeps rising. Domestic drone production is rapidly increasing, too; over 1.5 million drones were reportedly manufactured in Russia in 2024.
For Putin, then, the upcoming SCO summit presents an opportunity to assess the depth of Russia’s partnerships, to gauge the impact of secondary sanctions on its ability to trade with overseas partners, and to determine whether compromise with the West is even necessary.
If Moscow’s friends offer enough assurances, Putin may see little reason to make concessions at all.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York who writes frequently for National Security Journal. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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The Han PRC CCP Xi regime leads the “Axis of Gulag States”. The Xi regime covertly funds whatever trillions of rubles that their vassal tsarling Putin is ordered to spend. Putin has no budget woes. Unless Xi stops the PRC from deficit funding Putin.
The Ukraine using intelligence of its people, is the real object of the PRC CCP. They want a real challenge, not the idiocy of the MAGA POTUS White House moronics.
The Ukraine is fighting the PRC CCP on its own Ukrainian blood and sinew.
Coward MAGA POTUS Trump is cowering in his inability to understand international level chess like statemanship. Trump has self-abdicated any role of POTUS.
We in Yankee are back to 1939-40-41-41. Yellow Belliie Cowards ran the USA and aggressively demanded that others die so the Yankee could be soft + comfy cowards. -30-