Key Points and Summary – More than two years after the failed Wagner rebellion, the question of Vladimir Putin’s vulnerability to a coup remains a subject of intense debate.
-While the Wagner group has been absorbed into the state, the long, brutal war in Ukraine has created new discontents within the regular military.
-Unverified but persistent rumors suggest that some officers within Russia’s General Staff are considering a “coup-style operation” as a survival mechanism against potential purges.
-While many experts dismiss this as “wishful thinking,” the possibility of a challenge from within the military is still considered feasible in a system where all other paths to power have been blocked.
Is Putin Susceptible to a Coup?
Back in the summer of 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin faced an attempted rebellion from the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who marched on Moscow. However, the rebellion was over after less than 24 hours.
“It is wrong to assume that the Russian military is toothless or that the Prigozhin saga is “the beginning of the end” for Putin,” Aslı Aydıntaşbaş wrote as part of a Brookings Institution roundtable after the Wagner coup.
“Putin was humiliated and, as Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin argues, the Russian military is corrupt and inefficient — but there is no indication that the regime is unraveling. We do not have a clear sense of what really happened. Was Prigozhin trying to stage a coup, as early reports suggested, or is this simply infighting among warlords in an opaque system?”
Indeed, it remains a question whether the Wagner Group rebellion was an attempt on the rule of Putin himself, or merely on the military leadership.
Prigozhin, the leader of the rebellion, isn’t around to answer questions about it; he died in a plane crash in August of 2023, just months after the rebellion, along with several of his lieutenants. And the BBC reported a year later that the remnants of the Wagner Group were by then under the control of the Kremlin.
Dr. Sorcha MacLeod, a member of the UN’s working group on mercenaries, told the BBC that the Wagner Group “may not exist in exactly the form it did previously, but a version – or even versions – of it continue to exist… There’s been this sort of dispersal amongst the Russian state, so there is no one overall controller.”
Is Putin in danger of suffering another rebellion, with Russia’s economy stagnant and the war in Ukraine continuing? And could it succeed?
Could It Happen Again?
A new book called Putin’s Sledgehammer: The Wagner Group and Russia’s Collapse into Mercenary Chaos, by Candace Rondeaux, was published earlier this year and looks at the 2023 rebellion.
An article in May, in the Times, looks at the question of whether that could happen again.
“Could Vladimir Putin be overthrown by disgruntled soldiers? The Russian leader has blocked so many other paths to his removal that it is a question worth asking,” the article asks.
“Those who can mobilise young protesters on city streets are in exile or in the gulag (where Alexei Navalny met his death). Those who could form a credible anti-Putin axis within the establishment lack the nerve or the clout. It is a feature of the Putin system, shaped over a quarter of a century in power, that to be trusted by him or even brought into his presence you have to be politically castrated. Yet challenge from within the military is still feasible. A long war in Ukraine, clumsily steered by the Kremlin, has created its own discontents.”
New Rumblings
In late July, The Robert Lansing Institute wrote about rumblings about “alleged coup planning within Russia’s general staff.” Those rumors, however, are unverified.
“Recent unverified claims from Russian sources suggest that certain officers within Russia’s General Staff are allegedly considering a coup-style operation, fearing repression or purges if the war in Ukraine ends unfavorably,” the report says. “Inspired by the failed mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023, these actors reportedly view a limited, swift power seizure as a potential survival mechanism. This report evaluates the credibility of these claims, identifies plausible actors, and assesses the likelihood and possible outcomes of such a scenario.”
The Institute assessed the rumors as having “Medium credibility.”
“While unconfirmed, the logic behind the fear of repressions and coup contingency planning fits historical Russian behavior patterns. However, the lack of public-facing signals from top generals tempers the assessment.”
It may, however, be wishful thinking on behalf of Putin’s opponents, similar to the years of rumors about the Russian leader being sick or dying.
“The idea of a coup from within Russia’s General Staff is not implausible—but remains speculative and fragile in terms of execution. The most likely outcome, if any, would be internal destabilization or isolated defiance, not a full regime change.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
Military Affairs
The Air Force Has an F-47 Fighter Problem
The Aircraft Carrier Is No More
The Royal Navy’s Astute-Class Nuclear Attack Submarine Is Quiet as a Dolphin
