How the Fall of Putin Could Happen

Key Points and Summary – The only way for Russian President Putin to leave office appears to be a coup.

-Despite widespread speculation, a coup to overthrow Vladimir Putin is highly unlikely.

-The Russian leader has spent decades “coup-proofing” his regime by creating loyal security forces like the National Guard, centralizing control over the FSB, and expanding his own presidential powers.

-While the costly war in Ukraine has created immense pressure, Putin’s inner circle remains ideologically committed to his goals.

-For a coup to succeed, it would require broad agreement among top officials who have been carefully selected for their loyalty, making the prospect of a successful rebellion extremely slim.

A Putin Coup Isn’t Happening

Ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, talks of a coup in Moscow have gradually escalated – but over three and a half years of war, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position has yet to be meaningfully challenged at home or abroad.

There are, no doubt, world leaders itching to see Putin deposed and replaced by a leader more likely to engage with the West. In March 2022, then-President Joe Biden said that Putin “cannot remain in power.”

In May that same year, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham suggested that the goal for Western countries assisting Ukraine in its defense efforts should be to “take out” the Russian president.

Years later, and Putin remains in power – even as the future of peace deal talks remains uncertain, the chances of Putin being removed from power are slim.

Regime change in Russia would require extensive Western cooperation, a domestic appetite to make it happen, Russian officials willing to risk their lives and careers to make it happen, and a series of additional efforts to overcome hurdles established by Putin to prevent it from happening.

Is A Coup Possible?

For a coup to begin in Russia, it would require broad agreement among Putin’s top advisers, senior Kremlin officials, and siloviki more generally – the latter of which refers to Russian officials within government institutions.

Coup attempts are typically triggered by a trigger event or crisis, which in this case would be a combination of the ongoing war in Ukraine and its domestic repercussions. With the Russian economy on the brink of a recession and more than a million Russian casualties so far, a coup might appear to some as a likely scenario if peace talks fail and Putin doubles down.

The problem? Putin has not only gone to great lengths to make himself coup-proof, but top Kremlin officials are as committed to the conflict in Ukraine as he is. Logically, the huge costs incurred by Russia to continue the war in Ukraine should have been enough to bring Moscow to the negotiating table long ago.

But this war isn’t logical; it’s ideological. And Putin’s top brass are just as committed to achieving his goals in Ukraine as he is.

Putin is aware of the risk, however.

He is, after all, a former KGB foreign intelligence officer.

That would explain the series of measures he has taken over the years to coup-proof his regime.

In 2016, Putin established the National Guard – a force that reports directly to the presidency and bypasses the Defense Ministry, bolstering his direct control over domestic security.

Earlier in his presidency, Putin also restructured and centralized the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor agency to the KGB, placing it firmly under his personal control and merging it with other security functions.

In 2020, constitutional amendments were made to expand presidential power, enabling Putin to remain in power until 2036 and giving him the power to dismiss judges and override other governmental institutions.

Putin’s actions are deliberate; the measures taken to restructure the Russian government date back to before the 2000 election.

The famous “Revision Number Six,” a leaked document that was published in Kommersant in May 2000, outlined plans to centralize political control under the Presidential Administration, turning the office of the presidency into the primary coordinator of all social and political processes.

So, is a coup possible? Yes.

Is it likely? No.

About the Author:

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York who writes frequently for National Security Journal. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.

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