Key Points and Summary – Russia’s drone incursion into Poland was a slap at Warsaw, NATO, and President Trump—but also a strategic blunder.
-It forces a hard answer on U.S. commitment while galvanizing Europe to treat Ukraine’s defense as its own.
-The core argument: if Ukraine survives, Europe does; if Ukraine falls, Europe’s security crumbles.
-That logic undercuts delaying Ukraine’s NATO path—Moscow is escalating anyway.
-A credible response is European-led: surge weapons, intelligence, and air defense for Kyiv while moving Ukraine toward Article 5 protection.
-Done right, the alliance avoids paralysis, deters further probes, and turns Putin’s provocation into NATO’s renewed purpose.
Trump, NATO, and Poland: Why Restraint Now Risks a Bigger War
Russia’s drone attack on Poland is obviously Vladimir Putin’s slap in the face of Poland, NATO, and President Donald Trump. But it’s also the most recent of the Russian dictator’s many instances of shooting himself, as well as Russia, in the foot.
True, NATO and Trump must now figure out just how committed the United States is to protecting its European allies. As political analyst Robert Kagan says, “By overtly attacking Poland, Putin has forced the question of America’s security commitment to the fore.
For Trump to do nothing in response to the constant strikes against civilian targets in Ukraine was one thing.
If he does nothing in response to a Russian attack on Poland, Europeans will have to stop fooling themselves and face the fact that the Americans really aren’t there for them.”
Whether an anemic American response spells the “beginning of the end of NATO,” as the title of Kagan’s article provocatively puts it, is another question. Not responding forcefully would certainly signal America’s indifference to Europe, and it would compel the Europeans to abandon their illusions about the United States, but the Alliance could survive, albeit in altered form.
The key is Ukraine. If it survives Russia’s assault, Europe survives.
If Ukraine falls, Europe falls. It’s that simple. And Ukraine’s survival doesn’t require an American commitment to do anything more than sell weapons to the Europeans and provide Ukraine with intelligence.
As to Europe, it has finally realized that the barbarians are at its gate and that Ukraine is central to its own security.
How NATO Must Respond to Putin
Now it’s up to the Europeans to do something about it. Putin’s attack should have the salutary consequence of putting the fear of God into the Europeans and compelling them to support Ukraine and themselves, unconditionally.
Putin’s attack on Poland has also exploded the case for not giving Ukraine immediate full membership in NATO. The argument against membership was and is that Russia would retaliate and escalate, thereby undermining European security.
Well, it’s done just that by attacking Poland. Clearly, Putin believes that he can escalate the war whenever and however he wants, precisely because the West is too terrified to respond. Now is the time for NATO to dispel that notion and extend Article 5 protection to Ukraine. After all, what would Putin do? Attack Poland? Attack Ukraine? Humiliate Trump yet again?
In effect, if not in intent, Putin has provided NATO with a genuine raison d’être. Now it’s up to Europe to take advantage of Putin’s latest misstep and rally around Ukraine by making it the core of its defensive mission.
With the United States on the sidelines, NATO can not only survive. It could possibly even thrive.
About the Author: Dr. Alexander Motyl, Rutgers University
Dr. Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, including Pidsumky imperii (2009); Puti imperii (2004); Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires (2001); Revolutions, Nations, Empires: Conceptual Limits and Theoretical Possibilities (1999); Dilemmas of Independence: Ukraine after Totalitarianism (1993); and The Turn to the Right: The Ideological Origins and Development of Ukrainian Nationalism, 1919–1929 (1980); the editor of 15 volumes, including The Encyclopedia of Nationalism (2000) and The Holodomor Reader (2012); and a contributor of dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines. He also has a weekly blog, “Ukraine’s Orange Blues.”
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Bankotsu
September 11, 2025 at 11:01 am
U.S. must declare war on Russia for the attack on Poland.
Swamplaw Yankee
September 11, 2025 at 12:29 pm
WE op-ed readers at this site benefit from the insight of Dr. Motyl, as this is an agent who has a long frame + extensive understanding of the world that exists within Ukraine. Not any different from Qbism interpretation of Quantum physics.
That is, we know it is a vicious race for comprehension and we all must and will make a bet. With Dr. Motyl, you know that the 99.9 % of Instant experts on Ukraine are just touts, like a “stable boy” tip sheet, keyboarding out blather that they have just read from a third rate web site.
There just are not any Ukrainian-American op-ed writers with Credentials and who are educating the Yankee Doodle Dandies! Or, conversely, fill these comments with the names of Ukrainian-Americans with an op-ed record that is somewhat comparable. Let’s see/ hear all those bona-fide Ukrainian names!
A note on language. While Motyl is sparse with the word war, there is NO war in my speculation. There is a re-start of the ancient 1000 year old ethnic genetic code inside russkies to abuse children and kill Ukrainians.
Yes, there is a definite physical front line of Genocide, where orcs are directed by ethnic russkies to kill Ukrainians! Why exactly, primarily to obtain suddenly FREE Ukrainian real estate.
This worked wonderfully well before for Putin’s Grandfather hiding in soviet Stalinist Halloween costumes back in 1932-33. As the ancient 1000 year old Genocide of Ukrainians hit a high spot, Halloween costumed russkie ethnics exterminated around 20,000,000 Ukrainians for their FREE real estate. Parasite russkies just had to clear out starved- to- death parents out of homes and mass kidnap the children. Suddenly the butcher was the FREE owner of any house or farm or business their hearts desired. And, wow, did those greedy russkies desire a lot of Ukrainian real estate.
As we all know, MAGA POTUS Trump is into real estate. “Strangely” the MAGA elite have no moral or ethical objection to the vicious front line of Genocide that steals homes and farmland from millions of Ukrainians. Putin or Xi equipped troops the MAGA elite can care less about the front line of Genocide sweeping home to home throughout Ukraine.
Is that “strange” actually a MAGA POTUS entanglement right into the “Dolus Specialis” the Genocidal intent that the entire russkie ethnic tribe feels is genetically NORMAL and their self-given right! -30-
Jim
September 11, 2025 at 1:00 pm
First things first, get to the bottom of what happened with the best evidence currently available put forth openly and transparently in public forums.
Presuming guilt is a poor way to reason through this situation.
After that? Depends on the evidence and the facts that can be derived from such evidence.
But the answer is not escalation and doubling-down as suggested, that won’t change the front line facts on the ground, Kiev is suffering on the battlefield.
It’s clear many war supporters want no compromise and will never accept what should happen: a peace treaty of neutrality for Ukraine. In fact, the vision many have seems to be an European war against Russia to stop any possibility of a peace treaty of neutrality for Ukraine even if that risks the destruction of Europe in the process.
The author wants, “Ukraine immediate full membership in NATO.”
That was the reason for the invasion in the first place to stop NATO encroachment up to Russia’ border and prevent the incorporation of Ukraine as a NATO member.
So, given Russia’s stated logic for the invasion and given what they were willing to do (and still doing) to stop that process (no NATO in Ukraine), an announcement of immediate NATO membership only inflames the conflict and risks escalation… to what end?
The author and others are willing to push that to the limit… Europe’s tapped out financially, haven’t you heard? So, dragooning them into paying more money, which they don’t have, and with their respective populaces deserting their elected leaders in ever greater numbers, it isn’t going to help Europe, rather it only accelerates the decline.
No, the solution the author seeks will accelerate and bring on the very result he fears the most: a Russian victory on the battlefield and no NATO membership for Ukraine and a bankrupt Europe with populations not just rejecting their political leadership, but questioning the system as a whole, wondering how a leadership could be so divorced from the people who elected them to office.
All, after more senseless death, destruction and untold suffering for the Ukrainian People.
Better to re-double efforts to achieve a peace treaty of neutrality for Ukraine… the sooner the better for the sake of the average Ukrainian and European citizen.