Key Points and Summary – The B-21 Raider is moving from reveal to reality. Lt. Gen. Andrew Gebara says a second airframe will fly before year-end, while the first—airborne since Nov. 2023—continues steady tests at Edwards AFB.
-The Air Force isn’t forcing “artificial dates,” but urgency is real: only 18 B-2s remain, B-1s are worn, and B-52s lack stealth against China/Russia air defenses.
A B-21 Raider is unveiled at Northrop Grumman’s manufacturing facility on Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California, Dec. 2, 2022. The B-21 will be a long-range, highly survivable, penetrating strike stealth bomber capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear munitions. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Joshua M. Carroll)
B-21 Raider. Image Credit: U.S. Air Force.
-At least 100 B-21s are planned through the 2030s, with leaders floating 145–200 to restore capacity.
-Built for penetrating, long-range conventional and nuclear strike, the Raider could reach initial operational capability as early as 2026, with full-rate production and broader fielding later in the decade.
Second B-21 Raider Bomber Will Fly Soon: What To Expect
The iconic B-2 Spirit is set to be replaced by the B-21 Raider, a next-generation strategic stealth bomber designed and built by Northrop Grumman, some time before 2030 – and officials say its second aircraft will fly in just a few months.
In August, Lt. Gen. Andrew Gebara said during a discussion hosted by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies that a second B-21 Raider will fly before the end of the year. The first B-21 flew in November 2023, and is now scheduled to begin its final series of test flights before Northrop Grumman begins production.
Gebara also said, however, that the U.S. Air Force has so far refrained from pressuring the manufacturer to meet an “artificial date,” arguing that it is better to give Northrop Grumman the time they need to get things right.
“That’s really been the secret sauce to the B-21 right now, is no undue pressures,” he said. “Let them do what they’re doing, and they’ll get us the world’s best aircraft here very soon.”
And while the Air Force may not be pressuring the manufacturer to rush the B-21 Raider, it remains keen to see the aging B-2 platform replaced. That eagerness stems from the many shortcomings of its existing bomber fleet. Today, only 18 B-2 Spirits are operational. And while still formidable, those bombers are aging, costly to maintain, and increasingly vulnerable to modern air defenses. The B-1 Lancer is worn from decades of heavy use, and the B-52 Stratofortress – though reliable and spared for upgrades – lacks stealth altogether.
With China and Russia investing heavily in advanced radar systems and integrated air defenses, the U.S. Air Force needs a larger fleet of long-range aircraft capable of penetrating contested airspace and delivering both conventional and nuclear payloads. The B-21 is meant to solve that problem, ensuring that America’s bomber force remains effective against near-peer adversaries.
What to Expect Next
Following its first flight, the B-21 entered into a steady pace of flight testing. By September 2024, the first B-21 was executing up to two sorties per week from Edwards Air Force Base, while two additional airframes remained in ground testing.
The Air Force has long expected the next two B-21s to fly by 2026, both of which were built to production standards and can be converted to combat missions if necessary.
At present, the production target is at least 100 B-21s to be delivered through the mid- to late-2030s. However, growing competition has prompted calls from analysts and officials to dramatically increase the number that will eventually be delivered.
A B-2 Spirit makes a low pass flyover during the 2024 Warriors Over the Wasatch Open House and Air Show June 29, 2024, at Hill Air Force Base, Utah. The B-2 Spirit, the predecessor to the new B-21 Raider, has been the U.S. Air Force’s premiere stealth bomber for more than 20 years. (U.S. Air Force photo by Cynthia Griggs)
U.S. Strategic Command Commander Gen. Anthony Cotton, for example, has suggested as many as 145 B-21s – a figure that has been echoed by top Air Force leaders.
Other analysts, including Harry Kazianis of this outlet, National Security Journal, have argued that as many as 200 may be necessary.
While initial operational capability could begin in 2026, complete production and widespread operational deployment are projected to extend into the 2030s, reflecting the massive scale of the project.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York who writes frequently for National Security Journal. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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