Key Points and Summary – With President Trump’s August 8 ceasefire deadline for Russia just days away, a new analysis explores the high-stakes standoff.
-There is “virtually no chance” Vladimir Putin will agree to a genuine ceasefire, as it would be seen as a sign of weakness and political suicide at home.
-Instead, Putin will likely continue to stall and issue threats. This puts the ball squarely in Trump’s court.
-Everything depends on whether Trump follows through with his threat of massive secondary sanctions, a move that could finally change the dynamic of the war.
Ukraine War: What Happens When Trump’s August 8 Ultimatum for Putin Expires?
Now that Donald Trump has given Vladimir Putin until August 8 to agree to a ceasefire or else face the imposition by the United States of secondary tariffs, what will the Russian dictator and the American president do as the deadline approaches?
Will Trump really impose punitive tariffs? Will Putin cave?
Having twice shortened his deadline from 50 days to 10-12 and now to a definitive 10, Trump has effectively committed himself to doing something in case Putin declines a ceasefire. The only question concerns the breadth and depth of the tariffs. All we can say with certainty is that weak tariffs will make Trump look weak and undermine his legitimacy. Given his mercurial nature, however, we just don’t know.
Ideally, Trump would use the August 8th deadline to announce a raft of significant secondary tariffs, a massive increase of US military aid to Ukraine (even if paid for by the Europeans and Ukrainians), and his support of the West’s seizure of the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets parked in European banks.
That would send a message to Putin that he could not ignore.
Anything short of a massive Western commitment to the Ukrainians would play into Putin’s hands. There is, after all, virtually no chance that the Kremlin’s current occupant will agree to a genuine ceasefire by August 8 or any time thereafter, as for him to do so would be the equivalent of political suicide.
Russia is making incremental advances, but it’s decades from anything resembling a smashing victory that would justify the million-plus casualties Russia has suffered. A ceasefire would make Putin look impotent, and in a society that venerates hyper-masculinity that would be deadly.
Instead, Putin will snarl, warn the West that it’s playing with fire, and continue to propose what it’s been proposing: a full-fledged peace based on Russian terms. If Trump refrains from falling for Putin’s word games and remains true to his own promises, secondary sanctions and increased support of Ukraine may be in the cards.
Ambassador John E. Herbst puts it well: “Since the Russian president launched his revisionist campaign with the 2008 attack on Georgia, and then his seizure of Crimea in 2014, he has managed to outlast the opposition that he has faced from the West. Trump has the ability to change this. To do so, he must abandon the dawdling, incremental policy of the Biden administration, and he must take strong military and economic measures that will prevent additional Russian gains on the battlefield and further reduce the output of an already doddering Russian economy.”
Everything depends on Trump. If he finally realizes that he has far better cards than Putin and acts on it, the war may begin approaching something resembling an end.
If TACO rears its head, Putin will rejoice and bomb Ukraine with increased vengeance.
About the Author: Dr. Alexander Motyl
Dr. Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, including Pidsumky imperii (2009); Puti imperii (2004); Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires (2001); Revolutions, Nations, Empires: Conceptual Limits and Theoretical Possibilities (1999); Dilemmas of Independence: Ukraine after Totalitarianism (1993); and The Turn to the Right: The Ideological Origins and Development of Ukrainian Nationalism, 1919–1929 (1980); the editor of 15 volumes, including The Encyclopedia of Nationalism (2000) and The Holodomor Reader (2012); and a contributor of dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines. He also has a weekly blog, “Ukraine’s Orange Blues.”
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Jim
July 30, 2025 at 4:49 pm
I suspect Putin will say nothing or relatively nothing, simply continue to prosecute the war to conclusion, as he and his advisors see it.
Russia has overcome all sanctions, so far, they will do their best to weather whatever sanctions Trump puts forward, now.
The Russians invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 to prevent NATO expanding to their border, even more specifically, to being dangerously close to their defensive depth and center, Moscow (as we’ve seen Kiev launch drone attacks at Moscow).
The Russians will not accept a cease fire, really a korean-style armistice, where Kiev is taken in as a de facto part of NATO, their military NATO trained & armed with a Banderite government itching for confrontation against Russia… in other words, a militarized, NATOized, Banderite Kiev West of any dividing line.
Russia considers NATO in Ukraine as an existential threat as they define it.
We’ll see where Trump falls on all this. (Yes, the usual suspects are pulling out their Maximalist plans for more weapons, money, and intelligence and so on… because it worked so great the first time around.)
Trump may be well received by the Washington Establishment for this hawkish turn in his policy, but a good part of his base of political support will not.
Trump’s polls are sinking… he needs his supporters, not dump them as is his wont to do when they disagree with him on longstanding issues important to the base (see Jeffrey Epstein).
Swamplaw Yankee
July 30, 2025 at 5:08 pm
Motyl seems to be the only op-ed contributor that has genuine Ukrainian comprehension. Good to see him again. -30-
Commentar
July 30, 2025 at 9:21 pm
The hammer dropping on trump actually.
Let’s see how long trump’s going to last.
There’s a saying about givin’ a man enough rope. So that he can go hang himself with it.
Trump’s busily burning the bridge with Russia, but Russia is no iran or Israel.
Russia has nukes although admittedly how many are in usable condition is quite uncertain.
Once nukes start to fly, there’s no going back. The action is totally irreversible and irreparable.
Careful where you put your foot or your threats, trump.
Moreover, the stink over trump’s past dealings with Jeffrey Epstein is billowing today.
Dems are pushing for release of records.
How the hell did trump say he knew Jeff was stealing girls from him but can’t say where the girls were sent afterward.
Some remote island ? A hotel belonging to trump ? Where.
Where, trump. We need answers.
Swamplaw Yankee
July 31, 2025 at 6:17 am
There remains the elephant in the room. The Yankee op-ed crows feels constrained to mention it. Why? Let’s hear some answers from the peer reviewers..
The USA is not the optimum, prime or best structure to negotiate with the Fascist Putin empire. Especially since the MAGA POTUS Trump has self-abdicated from the position of Leader of the WEST.
Can the inner beltway accept this reality or is this the old addict medical scene? That is, the USA power structure still thinks it’s addiction to being leader of the WEST means that they are the Leader of the WEST. Tragically, this reader just can not spot the “leader” of the WEST in 2025.
The USA pooped its leadership position away back in 2008, for sure in 2014. There was the Georgia in 2008, then the POTUS Obama in 2014. The USA just could not be trusted. POTUS Obama’s Democratic Cabal was so used to unilateral power moves it betrayed the WEST with its unilateral greenlighting of the loss of the WEST geopolitical position by controlling the Ukraine’s Crimean soil, people and Black/Azov Sea zones to the prime, vile cold war enemy: Putin.
The Inner Beltway better get cracking with open debates on how much compensation and reparation the WEST must force out of the orc muscovite child mass abductioners.
The return of 100% of ukraine’s soil is tops.
-30-