Russia Is Winning the Ukraine War

Key Points – As of May 2025, an assessment of the war in Ukraine across key metrics—territorial control, military manpower, and supply chains—indicates Russia maintains significant advantages. Russian forces occupy approximately 18.7% of Ukrainian territory and continue to make incremental gains.

-While both sides have suffered heavy casualties, Russia’s larger population pool and ongoing recruitment efforts allow it to sustain higher troop levels for a more extended period.

-Critically, Russia’s defense industrial base demonstrates greater self-sufficiency, particularly in ammunition production, whereas Ukraine remains heavily reliant on Western aid, the long-term consistency of which is uncertain.

-By these measures, Ukraine is not currently winning the conflict.

Math Doesn’t Lie: Russia Has the Advantage in the Ukraine War

If U.S. President Donald Trump follows up on his recent comments about Russian President Vladimir Putin being “crazy” with additional sanctions, May 2025 could go down in history as the month that the war in Ukraine changed.

While Trump has yet to announce how he intends to counter Putin’s aggressive drone strikes over Ukrainian cities this past weekend, the president is expected to imminently change how he approaches negotiations with Russian leadership.

That would make now a good time to assess where, exactly, both sides of this conflict stand in terms of three key metrics: territorial gains and losses, military manpower, and supply chains.

While this is by no means an exhaustive accounting of every major incident and dynamic in the war, this framework offers a solid general picture of where things currently stand.

Territorial Gains and Losses

As of May 2025, Russian forces occupy approximately 112,851 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, accounting for around 18.7% of Ukraine’s landmass.

The extent of Russia’s occupation of Ukraine includes a net gain of 397 square kilometers in the past month alone, with the most recent gains coming from the Sumy region.

Ukraine has made some limited advances, reclaiming around five square miles of territory, including areas in Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk regions.

As it stands, Ukraine’s territorial gains inside Russia are very limited, and its military has not regained major occupied regions like Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, or significant chunks of Kherson or Zaporizhzhia.

From this perspective, Russia has the upper hand, and it is not by a close margin.

Military Manpower

At the onset of the invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022, Ukraine’s armed forces numbered approximately 250,000 active personnel. Through conscription and other efforts, that number grew to almost 700,000 by July of the same year. After exhausting auxiliary units and reserves, the Ukrainian army grew to around 1 million. However, some estimates suggest Ukraine has lost as many as 80,000 soldiers, and a further 400,000 have been wounded. Ukraine has, therefore, lost between 20% and 25% of its initial active force.

Russia, meanwhile, has by some estimations lost some 60% of its pre-war active military personnel, but still has a stronger army overall. Russia began with 1.45 million active personnel in 2022. By April 2022, that number grew to 1.5 million, following a decree by Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand the armed forces. Russian casualties are believed to be as high as 900,000, and deaths as many as 250,000 – however, it’s hard to determine just how accurate these reports are. If true, it means Russia has lost substantially more soldiers than Ukraine, but doesn’t mean Ukraine has the upper hand.

Despite heavy losses, Putin is reportedly facing few obstacles in recruiting new troops. U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that Russia’s conscription system and financial incentives could allow it to sustain high troop levels for at least another two years.

Supply Chains and Production

Ukraine has significantly bolstered its defense industry, with approximately 500 arms producers employing nearly 300,000 people as of 2024. This year, the sector’s capacity is expected to reach $35 billion, up from $1 billion at the outset of the war. Ukraine now also produces roughly one-third of its military equipment domestically, with near-total self-sufficiency in drone production thanks to amateur drone enthusiasts creating as many as 100,000 drones per month. 

While Ukraine still relies heavily on NATO countries for its large weaponry, Russia has been almost entirely dependent on its own resources since the invasion began. Russia continues to rely on its extensive industrial base to this day, producing an estimated 3 to 4.5 million artillery shells annually, which is almost triple the combined output of Europe and the United States. Sanctions, however, have led to some challenges, including a 22% reduction in funding for aircraft production as a result of manufacturing delays.

Both countries have developed significant wartime production capabilities, but Russia remains more self-sufficient – and if NATO support were withdrawn, Moscow would be able to sustain its war effort far longer than Kyiv.

Russia holds more territory, has greater self-sufficiency in weapons production, and maintains a larger pool of manpower despite heavier losses. By no realistic metric could Ukraine be described as winning this war at this stage – a reality that likely explains Kyiv’s rumored willingness to make territorial concessions as part of what might hopefully be the last round of negotiations.

About the Author:

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.

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