Key Points and Summary – Fresh off a trip to Ukraine, U.S. Special Envoy Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg told a packed hall at the Warsaw Security Forum that, despite the bloodletting, Russia isn’t winning.
-They haven’t taken Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, or crossed the Dnipro—only chipped away at parts of the east.
A U.S. M1A1 Abrams tank needed for training the Armed Forces of Ukraine awaits offloading at Grafenwoehr, Germany, May 14, 2023. The M1A1 training is expected to last several weeks and will include live fire, crew qualification, maneuver, and maintainer training. Armed Forces of Ukraine training is conducted by 7th Army Training Command at Grafenwoehr and Hohenfels training areas in Germany on behalf of U.S. Army Europe and Africa. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Christian Carrillo)
-His message mixed blunt math with human stakes: casualties on an industrial scale, kids sheltering in subway schools, a Ukrainian public that refuses to bend.
What Happens Now in the Ukraine War? We Just Attended a Panel with Keith Kellogg for An Update
WARSAW, POLAND – One of the most well-attended briefings at the Warsaw Security Forum (WSF) this year was an overview of the war in Ukraine by retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, the United States’ Special Envoy to Ukraine under President Donald Trump. Kellogg had recently returned from Ukraine and brought back several observations about the war’s status, now that it has entered its fourth year.
Kellogg pointed out that this is a kind of war where “everybody is now listening and following what is going on. Europe has not seen a conflict like this since WWII. We in the US thought the war would be over in three days and instead we had a defiant Ukraine President [Volodymyr] Zelenskiy telling us ‘I do not need a ride, I need ammunition.'”
This war has been unprecedented not only in its longevity, but also in the cost, with casualty levels alone reaching 1 million on both sides. The United States sustained [considerably smaller] losses in Vietnam of 58,000 dead over a period of about ten years.
Kellogg pointed out that the assessment of the senior US official and general officer community is unanimous: “Russia is not winning this war. Russia has not crossed the Dnieper River, has not taken Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odessa. They have managed to take parts of Lugansk, Donetsk, and Zaporozhye.”
What is the Objective
“We want to get to a place where the killing stops because the level of the killing is at industrial strength. I have been in Ukraine a lot and I have seen the resiliency Ukraine and how this looks,” he said. “The Ukrainians are incredibly indomitable. But the bottom line is that this is a major war that needs to be brought to a close.”
Kellogg always reminds his audiences that he speaks his mind but does not speak on behalf of President Trump. However, he would say that, in his estimation, “the White House is impatient with what is happening in Moscow.”
But what is Putin thinking and what is his objective? was the next question put to the US Special Envoy.
“I will not solve that one at all—no one in this room can figure that one out. But President Trump has been very personally engaged. I give full credit to President Trump for engaging [with Putin]. Biden never picked up the phone to talk to Putin.
“But you have to talk to your adversary. There is a level of frustration [with the Russians],” Kellogg stated. “Putin realizes he cannot win this. He intended to subjugate Ukraine, but that is not going to happen. You see that when you talk to Ukraine people they are determined and there is stability of the state.
“Trump is almost acting in an intermediary role—somewhat like Teddy Roosevelt in 2004 with the Treaty of Portsmouth,” that closed down the war with Russia and Japan. The US will play this intermediary role and has repeatedly stated that Ukrainians will be a key part of any negotiated settlement, which was part of this prediction.
Ukraine War: Look to the Future
What will happen in the next 12 months, and will Putin decide to negotiate? Kellogg was asked.
“We have to make sure that Putin understands he cannot win over the long term,” said Kellogg. Ukrainians have a realistic view of the world, which could be instructive in this situation. In post-war Germany, Adenauer knew he would never achieve a unified Germany during his tenure, but he believed it would happen eventually. He knew that Germany would not be a NATO member during his watch, but would eventually become one.
“We also have to look to the future,” Kellogg said, and then referred to the conditions that the Russian bombardments against Ukrainian cities impose on the population. “Kids should not have to go to school in the subways. We need to find a solution to make sure that does not happen again.”
He also reminded the audience that some international territorial disputes can take a long time to resolve. Congress had passed the Jerusalem Act, he pointed out, which required the US to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. But there was a provision in the legislation for a waiver.
“That Jerusalem Act waiver was employed 37 times,” Kellogg said, and “Rex Tillerson was the last Secretary of State to receive a waiver. Trump was determined that the embassy would move, so he insisted on that step” the following year.
Kellogg recalled in response that Trump received the traditional State Department “the sky is falling” warning and was told, “If the embassy moves, this will create a 3rd Intifada, but the 3rd round of such an insurrection never came,” recalled Kellogg.
The last question was that two and a half weeks ago, Poland was attacked by a swarm of Russian drones. Support was received from many countries, but there was a deafening silence from the White House for many days.
Kellogg explained the dynamics of the kind of reporting that usually occurs in these instances as the reason for the US delay. “In the military we learn first reports are always wrong,” he explained. “You have to wait for second and third reports before you react. The best course is to wait to see what really happened and what should be done.”
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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Swamplaw Yankee
October 1, 2025 at 5:12 am
The key thought: “We in the USA thought the war would be over in three days” etc.
That is the point of every extreme danger! The complete inability inside the current USA power structures. The structure has deficient something, perhaps intelligence organization. Near idiots wander about in well paid employment and there is zero jail time for this crime.
Why is there zero talk about the crime of incompetence in the above? How could there be no congressional investigation of the above failure?
The Congressional reports that I have read acknowledge that elected congress officials have zero idea of the efficiency of the USA intelligence morphology. Or, am I wrong and the peer readers know otherwise.
So, a world Imperial empire goes to re-start its 1000 year old Genocide of Ukrainians and the USA pretends the USA knows zip, zero, nothing. Other than to offer rides out of town. And, this is not a major concern in any sector of the MSM.
In 1741 a ruuzzkie tsarina ordered the extirpation of the Chuckchi and Koryak people of Siberia: 100%. This is after over 300 years of ruuzzkie run sex/slavery of countless peoples in the Siberian Asiatic lands.
in 2014 tsarling Putin ordered the re-start of democide of Ukrainians after the POTUS Obama Democrat Cabal unilaterally, green lit the loss to NATO of the Ukraine’s Crimean soil, Families and Black/Azov Sea jurisdictional zones to the prime vile Cold war enemy of the WEST, tsarling Putin.
Many historians estimate the loss of millions of Ukrainian children over the centuries of depraved ruuzzkie ethnic sex/slave trading of Ukrainians to the Muslim Ottoman Empire.
In 1932-33 ruuzzkie ethnics dressed up in Halloween costumes as fat Joe Stalins to legally Genocide 20,000,000 Ukrainians in the largest incident of democide in the 1000 years of killing Ukrainians.
The USA did nothing in those years to stop millions of “normal” ruuzzkie ethnics from this mass Genocide Starvation killing to obtain FREE Ukrainian Real estate. Just like today, the ethnic ruuzzkies were lined up in 1932-33 to move into vacant Ukrainian’s homes, farms, businesses, etc.
POTUS Obama + his Democrat Cabal unilaterally greenlit the re-start of this 1000 year old Genocide of Ukrainians and the 2014 start of FREE Ukrainian real estate being given to parasite ruuzzkies ready + all lined up to leave Moscow for Ukraine.
Kellogg deceives as this 2014 invasion is not a war. Vietnam, Iran or Korea was a war. The Yankee did not invade Iran or Vietnam to butcher Vietnamese and steal their homes, farms and businesses.
Kellogg refuses to be honest and call tsarling Putin a democidist! Kellogg needs to state honestly that POTUS Obama green lit the re-start in 2014 of the ongoing Genocide of Ukrainians! Kellogg refuses to state that the USA demands the return of every square foot of illegally occupied Ukrainian soil stolen since the 2014 POTUS Obama green light.
Kellogg is dead wrong when he claims the Lord made Trump his intermediary angel. Trump is unable and incapable of being an intermediary, adjudicator or any sort of facilitator judge. That is not even remotely debatable.
Wow. Does Kellogg expect the world to believe this self-created Yankee style fairy tale. Maybe Trump truly wants to cuddle up close with the Genocide perpetrator, Putin! If so, do not use this cuddle time to steal Ukrainian soil + homes just so parasite ruuzzkie tribesmen of Putin can colonize for FREE ancient Ukrainian soil.
Kellogg needs to address the activities of POTUS Obama in the pre-planned days of 2014. Everyone knows that the LONG GAME of Putin was to pay off russian speakers to ignite at a signal. And, thanks to the NAZI-like FSB the traitors to Ukraine ignited in a grab for FREE Ukrainian land.
The analogy to MOLDAVA is apt. The NAZI-like FSB controls a large part of Moldova and pays big money to keep the ruuzzkie speakers as suppressors of the Moldavan population. The comparison to the Ukraine’s Crimea is appropriate. Kellogg refuses to demand that POTUS Obama admit in 2025 that his Democrat Cabal did nothing in 2012-14 to stop Putin in the pre-planned LONG GAME to take over Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014.
Kellogg still criminally perpetrates in public the US con that Trump has the right to negotiate away Ukrainian land. Trump clearly did zip, zero in his first term to stop Putin’s mass abduction of Ukrainian children and return 100% of stolen Ukrainian land.
Kellogg only needs to speak in detail of how much pre-payment of compensation and reparation in US gold bullion the USA sees as its version of a Putin ruuzzkie ethnic retreat package. How much creative management of this pre-payment concept can Kellogg show the world observers? -30-
Jim
October 1, 2025 at 11:55 am
Retired General Keith Kellogg, 81, is a holdover from the Cold War mentality and is stuck in a time warp where it’s always 1991, arguably the peak of United States military power.
It’s not 1991 anymore.
Nobody thought the war would be over in three days, that was a head fake, so when Kiev didn’t collapse, as suggested by General Mark Milley, it made Kiev look strong and resilient in the face of Russia’s advance.
“Those feisty and plucky Ukrainians, we can’t abandon them” was the narrative Milley wanted to plant. (Hint, Kiev was never going to be abandoned, too much was riding on their fighting it out.)
Seriously, you spend eight years building up the government and military since the C. I. A. supported bloody, violent overthrow in 2014 and it falls in three days… come on, give me a break.
But that’s ancient history, so to speak.
Where are we now?
I guess General Kellogg is much like the T. V. Generals who almost to a man, Hodges, Petraeus, Keane, 82, McCaffrey, 82, all stated Ukraine would win the ’23 Summer Offensive, Hodges going so far as saying Kiev’s soldiers would be partying on the beaches of Crimea by Fall of ’23.
Instead a total disaster… one giant slaughter pen for Ukrainian soldiers… no air cover, insufficient mine removal equipment, and no ability to give covering and must important removal and clearing fire to advance against fixed, fortified positions in depth. Patraeus even suggested the Russians would drop their weapons and run under the assault.
Didn’t happen.
So, we’ll see what happens on the Battlefield.
General Kellogg retired from the army in 2003 over twenty years ago.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.
Old, retired General’s prognostications on military matters in Ukraine have been wrong too many times, to give them much credence now.