Russia’s Ukraine War Machine Is Now Running on Fumes and North Korean Shells

Key Points and Summary – Russia’s vast Soviet-era military stockpiles are “drying up,” forcing its Ukraine war machine to become critically dependent on rogue allies, according to a new analysis.

-Shipments from Russian storage hubs have plummeted, and ancient T-54 tanks from the 1940s have been sent to the front lines.

-To fill the gap, Moscow is now relying heavily on foreign supplies, with North Korea reportedly providing over half of Russia’s imported explosives and a staggering 40% of its total ammunition.

-The war, which began with Soviet might, is now a grinding conflict propped up by pariah states.

Russia Relies on North Korea as Soviet Era Supplies Dwindle in Ukraine War

Russia’s war machine is increasingly dependent on the generosity of rogue allies and relics of the past, according to a new analysis from the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) Institute.

The study paints a stark picture of Moscow’s dwindling domestic military reserves and its growing reliance on foreign-sourced weapons, many of them from authoritarian regimes like North Korea and Iran.

Soviet Supplies Dry Up

At the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia drew heavily on vast Soviet-era stockpiles.

But those reserves are now drying up.

The KSE analysis, based on logistics and shipment data, shows deliveries from key Russian storage hubs have plummeted from a wartime high of 242,000 tons in 2022 to a projected 119,000 tons this year, almost back to pre-war levels.

“The better-quality equipment was the first to go,” said Pavlo Shkurenko, a KSE analyst, citing a drop in deliveries to military repair stations. Soviet-era T-72s and T-80s, dating back to the 1970s have been used. There were even T-54s from the late 1940s in operation in Ukraine.

Is Russia Adapting in Ukraine War?

Certain analysts told the press that a reduction in tanks on the ground does not necessarily imply growing Russian weakness but instead a pivot towards drones and infantry.

At the same time, the Kremlin is funnelling enormous sums into its military future—reportedly planning to spend over $1 trillion on rearmament by 2036.

In the meantime, however, Moscow is leaning hard on its few remaining allies.

The report highlights an explosive shift in arms sourcing: over half of Russia’s explosive material imports in 2024 came from North Korea, funneled through the Pacific port of Nakhodka.

These shipments, nonexistent before the war, reached 250,000 tons last year. South Korean intelligence puts North Korean military support to Russia at 28,000 shipping containers, some allegedly containing artillery, ballistic missiles, and even personnel.

Iran Backs Moscow in Ukraine

Iran, too, plays a supporting role, with the KSE identifying some 13,000 tons of explosives likely traced to Iranian supply routes through the Caspian Sea.

Ukraine’s intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, says Pyongyang now supplies 40% of Russia’s ammunition.

This figure highlights the significant reliance of the Kremlin’s war effort on regimes that are themselves subject to international sanctions.

In a further sign of strain, Russia has canceled its annual Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg, while fending off a near-constant barrage of Ukrainian drone strikes across western Russia.

What began as a blitzkrieg grounded in Soviet might is now a grinding war propped up by isolationist regimes. If Putin hopes to outlast Ukraine, he’ll have to do it with rusting tanks, North Korean shells, and an ever-growing price tag.

About the Author:

Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.

Fighter Jet Fails

Russia’s Su-57 Felon Stealth Fighter Is a Waste of Rubles

America’s YF-23 Black Widow II Might Be Better Than F-22 

Russia’s Su-75 Checkmate Fighter Won’t Fly