Key Points – Despite growing pessimism in the West and Russia’s ongoing summer offensive, Ukraine has not lost the war.
-While Russia possesses a manpower advantage, its battlefield performance has been poor, marked by staggering casualties approaching one million (killed and wounded) and massive equipment losses for minimal territorial gains since early 2024.
-Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable ingenuity and resilience, inflicting disproportionate losses on Russian forces, damaging irreplaceable strategic bombers deep inside Russia, and crippling the Black Sea Fleet.
-A Russian victory is far from inevitable, but Ukraine’s ability to ultimately prevail will depend on continued and robust Western military support.
Has Ukraine Lost The War With Russia?
As the Russia-Ukraine war drags on into its fourth year, many believe Ukraine has already lost the war.
Russia is exercising initiative and is conducting its summer offensive, yet nothing is yet truly settled.
The war has become a war of attrition, with both sides suffering appalling casualties. Ukrainian defenses on the Eastern Front are bending but have not broken. Russia has continued large frontal attacks, sacrificing troops for small gains on the ground.
While a much smaller and poorer country, Ukraine has relied on its ingenuity and will to resist and keep the Russians at bay. The underdog force recently snuck a fleet of drones into Russia on trucks and unleashed them on Russian airfields, causing irreparable damage to Moscow’s long-range bombers.
Both sides then began a propaganda battle with Ukraine showing videos of bombers being targeted, claiming hits on 41 but only showing that half that number were hit and about a dozen destroyed. Moscow claims that Ukraine did only superficial damage, which is untrue.
The Tu-95s and Tu-160s, which are no longer manufactured and cannot be replaced, are the bombers that were hit.
Pessimism Abounds In the West, Especially In the US
A growing number of analysts and policymakers believe Russia is winning the war. One US academic noted, “the United States and the West more generally and Ukraine have lost in the war over Ukraine,” and “the Russians are going to win.”
Dmytro Kuleba, a former Ukrainian foreign minister, remarked that unless the current trajectory changes, “we will lose this war.” In addition, some US policymakers have concluded that Russia has “all the cards,” alluding to the contentious February meeting between Trump and Zelensky in the White House.
Russian President Vladimir Putin boasts that Russia is decisively winning on the battlefield: “Overall, we can clearly see what is happening right now. Our troops have the strategic initiative along the entire contact line.”
He added that, “we have reason to believe that we are set to finish them off. I think that people in Ukraine need to realize what is going on.”
Andrei Kartapolov, head of the defense committee in the Duma, Russia’s lower legislative chamber, followed Putin’s comments with threats that if Ukraine did not accede to Russia’s maximalist demands in peace negotiations, Ukrainian leaders would be forced to listen to “the language of the Russian bayonet.”
Vice President JD Vance also reiterated Washington’s bleak analysis, saying that “Russians have a massive numerical advantage in manpower and weapons in Ukraine, and that advantage will persist regardless of further Western aid packages.”
Russian Territorial Gains Have Come at an Exorbitant Cost
Putting aside Putin’s rosy proclamations, a look at the hard facts is a sobering look at how much the Russians have paid for about 1 percent of Ukraine’s territory in the past year.
In 2024, Russian troops took an area about the size of Rhode Island at the cost of 440,000 casualties. Russia will suffer its one-millionth casualty sometime this month at the current rate of casualties suffered.
And yet, despite a million casualties, Russia hasn’t achieved a single one of its strategic objectives since the full-scale invasion began nearly three and a half years ago. Russia currently holds about 18 percent of Ukrainian territory.
Since January 2024, Russia has lost approximately 1,149 armored fighting vehicles, 3,098 infantry fighting vehicles, 300 self-propelled artillery systems, and 1,865 tanks. Russian equipment losses have been significantly higher than those of Ukraine, varying between a ratio of 5:1 and 2:1 in Ukraine’s favor.
Despite its air force being just a fraction of the size of Russia’s, Ukraine has taken away Russian numerical superiority.
And in the Black Sea, Russia has lost over one-third of its Black Sea fleet, losses that military experts consider critical, rendering it incapable of fulfilling its operational responsibilities. They were forced to relocate most of their critical warships, including 10 Kalibr missile carriers, from Crimea ports to Novorossiysk to shelter them from Ukraine’s attacks.
At the current monthly rate of advance in Ukraine, it would take Russian forces over 152 years to capture the remaining 80 percent of Ukraine if Russia can sustain massive personnel losses indefinitely. Russian victory is thus hardly inevitable.
Putin is playing for time because he believes he is on the right side. He believes the Western alliance will break apart and lose interest in saving Ukraine. Plus, he dictates the narrative in Russia and can limit the bad news about the number of casualties to the population.
CSIS reported that “Russia’s daily average of casualties has increased every year since 2022. However, many of the soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine are from Russia’s Far North, Far East, and prisons—and are not the children of Moscow and St. Petersburg elites. Putin likely considers these types of soldiers more expendable and less likely to undermine his domestic political support base.” Therefore, Putin isn’t concerned about casualties.
A Russian victory lies in fostering the illusion of Russian strength through untrue propaganda reports and undermining Western resolve.
Ukraine finds itself in an unenviable position, but its fate is far from being settled. It can survive and eventually stop the Russians, but they won’t win without continued Western support.
About the Author
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
Fighter Jet Fails
waco
June 9, 2025 at 12:31 pm
2025 is crunch time for russia to grab the bull by the horns and slay the nazi horde.
Once and for all.
But problem is vladimir vladimirovich has become feeble and also increasingly showing signs of effeminacy.
He MUST be shoved aside and allow somebody like medvedev to take over.
What did Dmitry say in 2023.
Russia would have used nukes if that year’s ukrainian counteroffensive succeeded.
Now is the time to use nukes against the ukro nazis.
And elbow aside putin.