On the eve of a midterm election day when the high price of oil is shaping up as a key issue, oil prices ticked down slightly on Monday after President Donald Trump hinted at a pivot toward diplomacy with Iran, before considering a post-election attack on Iran.
According to Bloomberg News, Brent crude jumped toward $110 a barrel on Friday.
But by Monday morning, Brent Crude was trading at $106.8, still high by both historical and recent standards, but lower than late last week.
West Texas Intermediate Futures, meanwhile, fell to under $100, CNBC reported.
Trading Economics wrote in its Monday report that Brent Crude fell as “hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the US and Iran eased concerns about further supply disruptions.”
AAA, in its weekly gas price report last Friday, reported that the national average gas price had dropped five cents to $4.22 per gallon, although “crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, however, are limiting further declines at the pump.” The average price a year earlier, however, had been just over $3 per gallon.
That small drop in prices is unlikely to make a difference when Americans go to the polls on Tuesday.
Back Off An Attack? Trump Pivots Towards Talks
Bloomberg reported that Trump had told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call that he preferred to pursue diplomacy, a stance that “concerned the Israeli prime minister,” Axios reported last week.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio had said Saturday that no decision had yet been made on additional strikes, and that the president was pursuing a diplomatic solution.
Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist at Rabobank, told Bloomberg that this represents a “temporary pullback” in oil prices. And on Monday, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its Brent forecast to $105 a barrel for December.
“The Mideast and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, alongside broader geopolitical fragmentation,” analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Grigsby wrote, “create high disruption risk.”
The Latest Talks: ‘A Potential Diplomatic Opening’
According to Al Jazeera, mediated talks between the U.S. and Iran have “provided a potential diplomatic opening.” That could also mean a pause in what many outlets across the political spectrum described as possible attacks this week.
Mediated talks took place in Tehran on Friday and in Qatar the following day, and reportedly led to movement, with Iran agreeing to alter its offer for “the period after which Iran’s proposal to partly reopen the Strait of Hormuz can be enforced.” It was previously seven days, but the Al Jazeera report said it has now been reduced to two, citing Iran’s foreign minister.
That report stated that Iran, much like the U.S., is signaling both an openness to diplomacy and that it’s prepared to get back to active military hostilities.
“We are prepared for all scenarios,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told AL Jazeera over the weekend. “We have upgraded our weaponry, addressed our vulnerabilities, and tested new arms,” the foreign minister added. “Our forces are at the highest level of readiness.”
Trump, meanwhile, had told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago Halloween party that in a potential attack after the midterm elections, he could likely execute American military aims quickly.
“We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes,” Trump said at the Halloween party, per Al Jazeera.
The Vance Letter
This followed Vice President JD Vance‘s writing a letter last week to Iranian Security Chief Mohsen Rezaei, in a bid to jump-start peace talks between the countries.
Trump, however, has stated that Vance’s letter was more an effort to get Iran needed medical supplies.
“Basically, it’s getting supplies in to help people that are not well,” Trump told reporters last week about his vice president’s letter.
However much reason there is for optimism, the sides appear far apart on the big issues.
“Iran is seeking a series of concessions while the United States insists on progress on Iran’s nuclear program before concessions are made,” Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow with the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera in its story about the potential for talks.
The order of events is also important, Mortazavi added.
“Therefore, the central difficulty is sequencing and leverage. Each side wants the other to act first.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
