Sorry: Ukraine Can’t ‘Drone’ Its Way to Victory Against Russia

Key Points – While Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” on June 1st—a sophisticated drone attack reportedly destroying numerous Russian strategic bombers deep within Russia—was a significant tactical success and morale booster, it is unlikely to fundamentally alter the war’s overall trajectory or secure a Ukrainian victory on its own.

-Russia retains substantial advantages in manpower, overall weaponry, and ammunition production.

-Despite the innovative use of cheap drones against high-value targets and a surge in domestic drone manufacturing, Ukraine still faces a formidable adversary whose strategic bombers can inflict greater damage and whose leadership shows little sign of abandoning its core war aims due to these strikes.

Can Ukraine Win This War With Drones? No

Citing Ukraine’s recent drone strikes against four Russian air bases, a New York Times article published this week argued that Ukraine has “flipped the script on how wars are waged.”

Highlighting the Ukrainian military’s maturing ability to use cheap drones to take out expensive aircraft stationed thousands of miles from Kyiv, authors Helene Cooper, Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt, Lara Jakes, and Adam Entous painted a portrait of a conflict that could, in theory, undermine Russia’s many strategic advantages on the battlefield.

The article refers to Operation Spider’s Web – a covert Ukrainian drone campaign launched on June 1 following 18 months of planning. Dozens of drones, smuggled into Russia and hidden inside wooden crates with remote-controlled lids, were launched from trucks positioned deep inside Russian territory. The targets were airfields as far as 3,000 miles from Kyiv. Ukrainian officials claimed that 41 aircraft were hit, including Tu-95MS, Tu-22MS, and Tu-160 bombers – all planes that form the backbone of Russia’s nuclear triad and long-range missile strike capability.

This wasn’t an isolated success, though it was by far Ukraine’s biggest drone victory so far. The attack is the culmination of years of rapid innovation in drone warfare and manufacturing. Ukraine has used drones in unconventional ways for years now, including dropping grenades directly into Russian tank hatches and onto various military outposts.

During the most recent operation, Ukrainian forces took out Russian targets using a combination of Turkish-made attack drones and inexpensive plastic aircraft that had been modified to various forms of munitions, including grenades. And, with 100,000 drones being manufactured domestically every month, Ukraine is unlikely to run out of these devices any time soon.

There is a compelling case to be made here that Ukraine can flip the script with these innovative new tactics, having successfully destroyed a $100 million aircraft using drones that cost as little as $600. But is that enough to turn the tide of the war?

I’m not so sure.

Is It That Simple?

While Ukraine’s drone victory proves its military can inflict major damage on Russia’s military assets, supply chains, and infrastructure – albeit under the right conditions – it remains true that Russia’s prized fleet of nuclear-capable and conventional bombers can exact substantially more damage than drones.

The question now is: Can Russia defend its remaining aircraft against future attacks, and will they use them to launch even more devastating strikes on Ukraine in the coming weeks and months?

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, this week offered a possible insight into Moscow’s line of thinking in the aftermath of the attack. The Russian official said that Moscow is seeking only “victory” against Ukraine, and that negotiators will not consider areas of “compromise.”

If Medvedev’s comments can be taken seriously (he is, after all, well known for his often outlandish and extreme public statements), it could indicate that Russia is willing to escalate on the battlefield rather than engaging with apparently futile efforts by negotiators to strike some kind of compromise.

Perhaps, at this point, Russia is willing to use its $100 million+ equipment to launch truly devastating strikes on Ukraine. That being said, it’s also entirely possible that Moscow would refrain from escalating over fears of tipping U.S. President Donald Trump over the edge, prompting fresh sanctions or additional consequences. Trump has, after all, said he is willing to do things “a little differently” if he feels Russia is “tapping [him] along.”

It’s also worth considering whether Ukraine can even sustain this war when their best hope of inflicting significant damage to Russia is spending 18 months to smuggle drones thousands of miles over the border. They did it once, but can they do it again? Now, Russia knows what to expect.

Russia can strike quickly and do more damage than Ukraine, and still has the upper hand regarding manpower, weaponry, and ammunition.

Unless Ukraine has new tricks up its sleeves, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which its military can win the war using clever drone tricks alone.

About the Author:

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.

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