Putin’s ‘Ultimate Revenge’ for Drone Attack: ‘Dropping’ a Nuclear Bomb?

Key Points – Following Ukraine’s devastating “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike on Russian strategic bomber bases (June 1st), which caused significant damage and humiliation, Vladimir Putin faces critical decisions on retaliation.

-While options could include a demonstrative nuclear detonation (e.g., over the Black Sea) to intimidate Western support for Ukraine, such an act carries immense risks.

-These include potential Western nuclear counter-signaling, alienation of key allies like China, and the possibility of triggering an internal move against Putin himself, who is reportedly already concerned about assassination.

-A more conventional, though still harsh, escalation of attacks on Ukraine is therefore considered a more probable response.

Putin: What Will Be Do to Push Back Against Drone Strike? 

SINGAPORE – The Ukrainian covert strikes of Operation Spiderweb that destroyed 34 percent of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet have been one of the greatest embarrassments—from a growing list of embarrassments—suffered by the Russian military in its war against Ukraine.

Historically, Putin has not reacted well to his military being portrayed in a negative light. By way of example, he was reportedly furious over the surprise incursion by the Ukrainian military into Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024.

Sunday’s simultaneous attacks on four major Russian airbases surpass anything that Ukraine has done to demolish the image of invincibility of Putin’s military since the February 2022 invasion fizzled out. It was bad enough that the convoys launched out of Belarus never reached Kyiv, but Sunday’s action by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) makes Putin look far worse.

So, what are Putin’s options to attempt to exact some measure of revenge for Ukraine’s bold and wildly successful sabotage against the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS)?

Putin: How Far Is He Willing to Go?

In March 2022, I had just barely escaped dying in the Russian invasion. I was in Warsaw, wearing some inexpensive clothes I had purchased at the local mall and sitting in a restaurant with colleagues from Washington, D.C.

They—along with a good number of other defense experts with responsibilities in Ukraine and Poland—had been arriving in ever-growing numbers to try and make sense of how Putin’s massive invasion had come a cropper.

While sitting there and discussing what Putin might do next, one of us received a phone call from back in the US. One of our colleagues, still back in Washington, was looking at what was coming out of Moscow and was close to consternation.

“Get out of Warsaw—now,” he said. “Putin is going stark raving mad over how his invasion of Ukraine, that was supposed to be over in 3-4 days, has turned into a fiasco. He is mad as hell. And he does not deal well with humiliation.”

“Here, our assessment is he would hit Warsaw now with a nuclear weapon in order to lay down a marker. This would be in order to show the West he means business—that he is willing to destroy Ukraine and Poland if he cannot invade and occupy them.”

A Demonstration of Destructive Force

Fortunately for us (and the rest of the world as well), if indeed Putin was ever contemplating using a nuclear weapon—against a NATO member state, no less—he then thought better of it.

He decided that mobilizing hundreds of thousands of new conscripts and overpowering Ukraine with brute force was a lower-risk option. This has been Moscow’s overall course of action since that time.

But there has been no shortage of those who postulate that the former KGB Lt. Col. might still like to try to frighten the West with his nuclear arsenal by doing something beyond the regular rhetoric that includes threats of attacks on European capitals.

Test a Nuke Over the Black Sea? 

One of the possible courses of action that Putin had reportedly been considering back in 2022 was a potential show of destructive force by detonating a nuclear weapon over the Black Sea. Could such a move be back on the table?

The intention, as the thinking goes, is that the specter of an actual mushroom cloud might have the effect of causing the European nations aiding Ukraine in this war to cease providing that aid.

The Limits of Nuclear Force

However, there is also a potential downside to Putin’s kind of action. That the Europeans might decide to make a show of force with their own nuclear forces—to say nothing of the US—to show the Kremlin “just how much they have to lose,” said a colleague who is a now-retired senior intelligence official who I have spoken with on this subject at length over the past three years.

“Putin using a nuclear weapon or engaging in some other wildly destructive act—how does this ‘move the ball,’ so to speak for him,” he said. “And what would happen with his allies in China? Would they continue to stand by him, or would they say, ‘Sorry, too much risk for us to stay in.’”

“There seem to be many more downsides and hardly any upside results if he takes this course,” he concluded.

“Putin is in a quandary right now,” he continued. “As the war continues to go badly, he is in a position where he cannot trust anyone. Could he use a nuclear weapon or take some other drastic action? Sure, he could. But that might result in someone putting a knife in his back as well.”

“Don’t forget Putin did not show up at the first set of proposed peace talks in Istanbul reportedly because he feared assassination. He may have said otherwise,” said my colleague, “but he was not worried about the Ukrainians taking a shot at him as much as he was worried about one of his own people doing so.”

About the Author:

Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw.  He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments, and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design.  Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.

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