The United Nations has warned that the Iran war could trigger a global food crisis, citing ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that are affecting agricultural production and pushing up food prices.
The warning comes more than seven months after the United States and Israel launched their first strikes against Iran, and as Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked over details of a potential agreement.
U.S. Air Force Capt. Nick “Laz” Le Tourneau, pilot and commander of the F-22 Raptor Aerial Demonstration Team, performs an aerial demonstration during the 52nd Annual SUN ‘n FUN Aerospace Expo in Lakeland, Florida, April 18, 2026. Capt. Le Tourneau showcased the unmatched capabilities of the F-22 to the SUN ‘n FUN crowds by performing multiple series of combat maneuvers. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Mary Bowers)
F-22 Raptor Flying in the Dark Clouds. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Meanwhile, fertilizer shipments are struggling to pass safely through the waterway.
The crisis is worsening, with farmers worldwide preparing for new planting seasons but facing limited access to the fertilizers they need to grow crops.
Rising fuel costs are also threatening farmers worldwide, raising agricultural production costs and, in places where fuel is inaccessible, including some of the world’s poorest countries, making farming impossible.
On Thursday, October 15, the president of the International Fund for Agricultural Development told Reuters that fertilizer shipment disruptions would have dire consequences.
Alvaro Lario said the impact is already showing up in harvests.
Lario also noted that agricultural commodity prices rose 13% in the third quarter of 2026, and that prices are expected to rise further before the end of the year and into early 2027.
The latest warning comes as the United Nations attempts to negotiate a new special shipping arrangement with Washington and Tehran that would permit fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, even as the conflict largely continues.
UN Says Agricultural Production Already Suffering
The new warning suggests that the economic consequences of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, long predicted by analysts, are now beginning to show, extending well beyond international energy markets and now affecting global food production.
Speaking to Reuters, Lario said the disruption to shipping through the waterway is affecting farmers who initially managed to keep operating using existing fertilizer and fuel supplies already located outside the Strait of Hormuz.
But as we near the end of the year, those reserves are becoming largely depleted, forcing farmers to make difficult decisions about their next crops and whether they can even afford to maintain normal fertilizer use.
Some farms may choose not to grow at all, others may try to grow without the necessary fertilizers, and others may be forced to plant entirely different crops.
Lario also warned that rising fuel prices are impacting farms, too, making mechanized harvesting far more expensive and thereby reducing yields.
Lario said the uncertainty is also pushing smaller farmers to prioritize quick-income crops over high-value crops that typically require longer growing periods.
The problem is particularly worrisome in the poorer parts of the world, such as Asia and Africa, that depend on imported agricultural products and fertilizer.
Other issues compound the problem, including major storms and threats to wheat shipments through the Black Sea.
United Nations Proposes Emergency Corridor
The United Nations has a proposed solution, but it’s unclear whether Iran will accept it.
On Wednesday, October 14, United Nations Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva warned that Washington and Tehran have only weeks left to reach an agreement before the next major agricultural planting season is affected.
Speaking to Reuters from Bangkok, Thailand, during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings, Da Silva described a proposed mechanism to restore limited fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The proposal would establish a maritime coordination center in Oman for UN personnel to monitor cargo loading at Gulf ports.
Those UN personnel would then help coordinate vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz.
For it to work, however, Tehran would need to agree to stop threatening or striking ships moving through the waterway.
With the Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s main point of leverage, the regime would likely not comply without concessions from Washington.
Reuters reports that the system could be established and operational within seven to ten days of a U.S.-Iran agreement, and the UN believes that allowing even five ships through the strait each day could maintain essential fertilizer supplies and avert a crisis.
Shortages Could Cause Years Of Problems
Fertilizer shortages now will cause problems for the next harvesting season – but they could also cause problems for several more years.
Even if Washington and Tehran reach an agreement in the coming weeks, the damage to agricultural production could be difficult to reverse in the medium term.
Fertilizer shortages affect crops throughout their growing cycles, so shipments that arrive after planting or application may not prevent lower yields.
The consequences could therefore extend well into next year even if commercial shipping returns to normal, and if shipping takes months to normalize, the backlog could cause problems further down the line, too.
For governments already struggling with food inflation, the major concern now is that reduced harvests could force countries to import more food at higher prices.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
