Key Points – Following the successful US air assault on Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, the immediate military objective may be complete, but a complex diplomatic and logistical challenge remains: what to do with Iran’s nuclear material.
-Historical precedents, like the 19-year IAEA process in South Africa and the hands-on US/UK dismantlement in Libya, show there is no easy path.
-Given deep mistrust of the IAEA, President Trump must devise a new plan.
The Iran Nuclear Material Problem
Early in the morning of June 22, 2025 Iran time, U.S. bombers dropped bunker buster bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
President Donald Trump warned Iran that the United States could hit several other targets if Iran did not stand down.
Despite the Iranian government’s bluster—and its warning that it could target American bases in the region and Americans worldwide—there is no mitigating the damage Trump’s actions did to the Islamic Republic, its ambitions, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s legitimacy.
While Trump is prone to hyperbole, simply celebrating the destruction of these key nuclear sites is not enough.
Khamenei may speak about his willingness to become a martyr and perhaps Trump will need to grant his wish, but the result will be the same: the end of any meaningful nuclear program in the Islamic Republic.
When the smoke clears and when Khamenei—or his successors—do the inevitable and surrender their nuclear program, then it will need to be extricated from Iran.
Here, there is precedent. In 1991, South Africa’s Apartheid regime both acknowledged its own secret nuclear weapons program and agreed to forfeit it. Even with a fully compliant government, first under P.W. Botha and then Nelson Mandela, it still took 19 years for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to certify the program’s end.
In 2003, when Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi decided to come in from the cold, U.S. and British specialists rushed into to physically dismantle its industrial base so that he could not change his mind.
The question then becomes who will physically remove Iran’s nuclear material. Many diplomats might say that is a job for the IAEA, but it is doubtful the United States let alone Israel will trust the IAEA given its own partisanship and history of ineffectiveness. Since the Israel-Iran conflict began, former IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has been particularly partisan in his antagonism toward Israel.
While Trump is opposed to U.S. “boots on the ground,” he may need to decide if U.S. nuclear and logistics specialists count.
If not, perhaps then he should turn to allies.
Here, India could play a key role, given that they are perhaps the only country in the world that has the trust of the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Indian specialists might truck it to Chabahar and then ship it to India for inspection, analysis and safe-keeping.
Whatever Trump decides, the worst option would be to rest on laurels and stand down, for the danger of loose nuclear material getting into the hands of terrorists or irregular forces will remain high until it can be secured and spirited out of Iran.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. The views expressed are his own.
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Zhduny
June 22, 2025 at 9:48 am
After the US and its sidekicks finished invading all of iraq in 2003, no WMDs or uranium stockpiles were ever found.
But What was found was the massive pollution left behind by the occupation forces after 2011.
Let behind were piles and piles and numerous waste dumps containing highly toxic chemicals and radioactive materials.
Thorium and uranium compounds were detected,highly dangerous to pregnant women, nerotoxic items containing high level of lead and mercury, cleaning compounds containing carcinogenic molecules, and depleted uranium parts and ash waste contaminated with DU.
The 2003 attacks and invasion of iraq were based on an american govt false premise of blatant lies and manufactured falsehoods.
Today, that noxious history is about to be repeated, this time in iran.
So, when will it be repeated and in where. It will be repeated after 2018 and it will take place in east asia !
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