The U.S. Navy’s Attack Submarine ‘Nightmare’ Is Getting Serious

Key Points and Summary on the U.S. Navy’s Attack Submarine Problem – The U.S. Navy is facing a critical attack submarine shortage, a “nightmare” scenario where aging Los Angeles-class boats are being retired faster than new Virginia-class submarines can be built.

-This impending capability gap is a symptom of a much deeper crisis within the American naval shipbuilding industry, which is plagued by inefficiencies, delays, and an inability to keep pace with the rapid expansion of China’s Navy.

-This growing naval imbalance threatens to erode U.S. deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, potentially emboldening adversaries and shaking the confidence of key allies like Japan and Australia at a critical time.

The U.S. Navy’s Submarine Nightmare Is a Numbers Challenge

In the modern naval system of warfare, which is complex and dynamic, a nation’s fleet often defines its power. At a time of geopolitical maneuvering, especially in the Indo-Pacific area, the U.S. Navy is in big trouble.

The alarming trend of sending Los Angeles-class submarines to be decommissioned faster than the state-of-the-art Virginia-class boats are ready for service is a problem not just in physical operation; it reflects a much deeper disease at the heart of American naval shipbuilding.

This incompetence not only causes significant gaps in U.S. fleet capability, but it also poses a national security risk in an era when China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is rapidly growing in power.

How the U.S. Navy’s Attack Submarine Crisis Began

Ever since the 1970s, the Los Angeles-class of submarines has been the mainstay of the U.S. submarine force.

Seen as sailing since they were introduced, these boats have performed brilliantly in various sea areas, ranging from anti-submarine warfare to reconnaissance.

However, as these old vessels are retired and cease to be in service, the transition to newer Virginia-class submarines has been slower than initially planned.

The U.S. Navy plans to decommission 20 Los Angeles-class submarines by 2026, but only a limited number of Virginia-class boats will have joined it by then. This situation raises serious questions about the future of America’s undersea weapons.

While technologically superior, the Virginia-class boats are also plagued by inefficiencies in shipbuilding, delays, and budget overruns.

Originally poised to build 30 Virginia-class submarines, there has been no sign yet that the Navy will meet a fraction of that target. Facing growing demand for products, the shipbuilding industry has struggled with operational issues, but the pandemic worsened it further, and costs have gone up.

The Navy is Always in the Middle of Some Sort of Controversy

This has resulted in a serious fleet shortfall that can’t be put off any longer. In addition, the USN’s problems do not only lie with the submarines.

In a similar position are surface vessels. Designed to provide the Navy with a fleet that is both flexible and adaptable, the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program has encountered numerous design challenges and operational issues.

Cutbacks to the LCS program in favor of more capable surface combatants, such as Constellation-class frigates, highlight the difficulties still besetting the Navy’s efforts to maintain a strong shipbuilding pipeline.

The outcome is a fleet that is not only contracting swiftly in numbers but also missing the all-around capability needed to fight modern wars.

The impact of such a lack of ability to produce new naval vessels not only gives the U.S. Navy very limited present-day capabilities.

Will America Fall Behind At Sea?

As the PLAN expands its fleet by building advanced submarines and surface vessels equipped with new technology, it will further risk falling behind in a crucial area of military preparedness.

It is not simply that the Chinese Navy is building more. It is also noted that in new technologies, such as artificial intelligence and unmanned systems, the results of which could give them significant leverage in future conflicts.

What Happens Next?

In terms of geopolitics, this naval imbalance has potentially far-reaching consequences.

Small wonder, then, the Indo-Pacific has already become a great-power stage.

With China using claims to assert territorial hegemony and military bluster, the US needs a demonstrable deterrent, but it needs to be anything but weak.

Without an American naval presence in the region, the U.S. military also might find it harder to project power throughout Asia.

This could make adversaries even bolder than they already are and shake alliances with Japan, Australia, and South Korea —three key regional partners for the United States. The consequences of reduced maritime presence are increased friction and disorder in real operations.

And the effects will range even further afield than this.

The more that U.S. foreign policy becomes focused on America First, domestic politics and foreign affairs will further interfere with each other, even if they should not. In the face of these challenges, the U.S. Navy must be given top priority as a national security imperative. Increased funding and a more nuanced shipbuilding strategy are required for this purpose. The Navy will need to overcome obstacles in direct negotiations with shipyard owners to achieve an effective solution.

Furthermore, building an interdisciplinary pool of skilled labor will be imperative to remain capable of meeting U.S. naval requirements in the coming decades. Moreover, the United States must reassess its strategic priorities and allocate resources accordingly.

The number of ships should not be the sole determinant of the future, but also ship capacities and readiness. It is essential to invest in advanced technologies, such as hypersonic weapons or next-generation sensors, to help maintain the competitive stalemate in the country’s favor. Incorporating unmanned systems into our fleets can extend operational flexibility and reduce losses on our side.

Submarine Shortage Meets Shipbuilding Problems for U.S. Navy

Overall, the U.S. submarine shortage is just one symptom of a broader failure in shipbuilding, a failure that undermines U.S. naval dominance.

As the PLAN advances and missile technology evolves, the U.S. Navy must take decisive action. By prioritizing shipbuilding and leveraging the same scientific edge it has applied to more traditional industries, the country can begin to safeguard itself from being overwhelmed in this competitive era.

This is a critical moment in time: if we don’t act now, we risk losing our opportunity to secure our future. The resolution of this issue is vital for the country’s security.

About the Author: Dr. Andrew Latham

Andrew Latham is a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities and a professor of international relations and political theory at Macalester College in Saint Paul, MN. You can follow him on X: @aakatham.

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