Key Points and Summary – The Russian Navy’s future is “tenuous and unclear” as it evolves from a global aspiration into a smaller, regional force.
-This analysis argues that a combination of devastating combat losses in the Black Sea, a rapidly aging Soviet-era fleet, a crippled shipbuilding industry hampered by sanctions, and tight budget constraints have doomed its blue-water ambitions.
-Instead of large surface combatants, the future Russian Navy will likely prioritize its still-capable submarine fleet and smaller coastal vessels armed with powerful long-range missiles to defend its own “green water” territory.
The Russian Navy: In Decline?
The Russian Navy’s current position is tenuous and unclear, as is its future, despite a few recent refurbishments.
Losses caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine, in and around the Black Sea, as well as funding issues, complicate the Russian Navy’s outlook for the future.
The Black Sea Fleet was, at one point in time during the Soviet era, the pride of Russia’s smaller naval presence. But serious combat attrition by Ukraine has significantly reduced that fleet’s effectiveness. The sinking of the Black Sea flagship, the Moskva, as well as many other ships of varying sizes, forced the fleet to beat a retreat to safer harbors like Novorossiysk. Ukrainian naval drones and long-range anti-ship weaponry seriously restrict their freedom of action, and have, as a consequence, inflicted significant reputational and material damage that will take many years to fix.
So, with all of that said, where does the Russian Navy go from here?
An Aging Fleet
At the core of the Russian Navy’s problems is the age of surface vessels.
The majority of the Russian Navy’s ships are Soviet-built ships from the 1970s and 1980s — destroyers, large cruisers, as well as submarines. Many of these vessels are too old to remain in service for much longer, even after refurbishment.
The ongoing refit of the Admiral Nakhimov, a battle cruiser, illustrates how difficult modernizing the Navy has become. That project has been plagued by delays and cost overruns, placing a question mark on the long-term value of updating that platform.
In reality, Russia today lacks the robust industrial base and funding that the Soviet shipbuilding industry enjoyed. One compounding factor is the fact that many of the Soviet Navy’s ships were built in Ukraine, now at war with Russia. But even before the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian shipyards catered more to the needs of other navies than to the needs of the Russian Navy.
The ongoing sanctions regime against Russia has also had a detrimental impact on the Russian Navy’s ability to construct and commission new vessels. Retirements are expected to outpace new builds in the future.
Challenges to Shipbuilding
Modern vessels built for the Russian Navy have struggled. Two programs, one to build frigates and corvettes — the Admiral Gorshkov-class, Buyan-M, and Karakurt — have resulted in useful ships being placed in service with the Russian Navy, but not at scale.
Those programs resulted in only small numbers of ships delivered over long production timelines. Hindered by sanctions and with access to technologies like Ukrainian gas turbines as well as Western electronics have prompted delays and redesigns.
One brighter area for the Russian Navy is its submarine construction. While Russian submarines lag behind their American counterparts in terms of design sophistication and performance, their fleet is widely regarded as very capable, albeit somewhat outdated. Submarines like the Yasen-M nuclear attack submarines and the Borei-class SSBNs continue, albeit at a slower pace, especially compared to the Soviet era.
Construction of large surface vessels, such as aircraft carriers or destroyers, has essentially stopped. Reports indicate that the Admiral Kuznetsov, an aircraft carrier, will be scrapped as part of a cost-saving measure, despite ongoing repairs that have been underway for many years.
Budget Priorities
The internal competition amongst Russia’s service branches for defense rubles is tight. Currently, the priority for Russia is prosecuting its war in Ukraine, predominantly a land fight.
With very little room for new vessel construction, Russia may continue to prioritize its land forces and nuclear deterrence in the future, which would likely result in a greater emphasis on nuclear submarines over a large surface fleet. Smaller ships focused on regional defense and power projection, as well as smaller coastal assets, could be a future investment priority.
Green Water Navy
Even during the Soviet era, the Russian Navy was not a true blue water navy with global power projection abilities or aspirations.
Unlike the United States Navy, which is a true global force, and the only navy in the world capable of patrolling important maritime lines and protection international shipping, the Soviet and now Russian Navies were instead a green water force, optimized for protecting and patrolling the Soviet Union’s and Russia’s littoral waters rather than far-flung operations around the globe.
Except for the submarine fleet, Russia’s surface ships instead are designed to attack NATO carrier strike groups, pushing them back out to sea and away from Russia thanks to long-range anti-ship weaponry.
Into the Future
Russia is unlikely to build a large navy capable of competing with the United States Navy or the combined navies of NATO.
Instead, the Russian Navy will remain a regional force — albeit one that is dominant in its near abroad. It will also be in a unique position, operating a variety of vessels that are both nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed.
It will continue to leverage the asymmetric advantages of advanced submarines and long-range missiles, rather than relying on large fleets of ships.
The Russian Navy will survive, albeit in a different form than it took during the Soviet era: smaller vessels with advanced weaponry and a smaller overall fleet, backed by a robust submarine presence.
In the Russian Navy’s backyard, however, it will remain the predominant regional naval force, likely for a long time yet to come.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
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