Key Points – Following Ukraine’s successful “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike on June 1st, which damaged or destroyed numerous strategic aircraft, Russia faces a significant long-term challenge in rebuilding its bomber force.
-Production lines for the targeted Soviet-era bombers, such as the Tu-95 Bear and Tu-22M3 Backfire, have been cold for decades, making one-for-one replacement of these lost assets impossible in the near term.
-While Russia is slowly producing modernized Tu-160s, this industrial reality means the recent losses, estimated by OSINT to be at least 13-20 strategic aircraft, will create a lasting impact on Russia’s long-range conventional strike and nuclear deterrence capabilities.
Ukraine Hits Russia Bomber Forces Hard: Not Easy to Replace
Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web, which saw dozens of Russian long-range strategic bombers damaged or destroyed by Ukrainian FPV drones, was one of the intensely meaningful and symbolic blows Ukrainian forces have managed to land on Russia.
During the attack, over 100 explosive-laden FPV drones emerged from hidden compartments in shipping containers and flew over Russian air bases, ramming into parked bombers and exploding.
Scenes recorded by the Ukrainian FPV drones are dramatic. Russian bombers, some covered in car tires to protect them, are wreathed in smoke and flames.
Some of the bombers were supposedly fully fueled, a measure that would have allowed them to jet away in the case of incoming Ukrainian missiles.
“Planning, organization, every detail was perfectly executed,” President Zelensky said on his Telegram channel in the aftermath of the attack. “I can say with certainty that this is an absolutely unique operation.”
“What’s most interesting – and this can now be stated publicly – is that the “office” of our operation on Russian territory was located directly next to FSB headquarters in one of their regions,” the President added.
“In total, 117 drones were used in the operation – with a corresponding number of drone operators involved. 34% of the strategic cruise missile carriers stationed at air bases were hit. Our personnel operated across multiple Russian regions – in three different time zones. And the people who assisted us were withdrawn from Russian territory before the operation, they are now safe.”
But while the bombers were protected from high-yield, far-away threats, they were surprisingly exposed to a much closer threat from FPV drones. Operation Spider’s Web was highly successful in the short term, sending a firm message to Russia, even as peace negotiations are ongoing.
Bomb our cities, Ukraine said, and we’ll bomb your bombers. In the long term, Russia will struggle to rebuild its strategic bomber force — for a similar reason that the United States shut down what was at the time one of its most advanced aerospace programs.
Rearming in the Future
In the coming years, Russia will face serious challenges in building new long-range strategic bombers capable of delivering nuclear weapons, even though there are conflicting reports about how many of Russia’s strategic bombers were hit and how many were ultimately destroyed.
In the aftermath of the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that about 40 of the Russian bombers targeted were hit. American intelligence officials put that estimate quite a bit lower, at around 20 aircraft hit, with about 10 of them destroyed.
Oryx, a website that uses open-source intelligence to track losses in the war in Ukraine on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, lists 11 Tu-22M3 strategic bombers damaged or destroyed, as well as 8 Tu-95MS strategic bombers and 2 Beriev A-50 early warning and control aircraft. Interestingly, no Tu-160 strategic bombers are listed on the Oryx website.
Still, the blow was as stunning as it was rapid.
“Even just from the immediately visually confirmed destruction of around 8 Tu-95 bombers, a Tu-22M3 and several other aircraft likely including more Tu-95s and an A-50U AWACS, this is a stunning success for Ukraine’s special services,” Justin Bronk, a Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, said.
“If even half the total claim of 41 aircraft damaged/destroyed is confirmed, it will have a significant impact on the capacity of the Russian Long Range Aviation force to keep up its regular large scale cruise missile salvos against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, whilst also maintaining their nuclear deterrence and signalling patrols against NATO and Japan.”
“The LRA force likely had slightly over 60 active Tu-95s and around 20 Tu-160 bombers for launching Kh-101 cruise missiles, and the fleet had been heavily tasked throughout the war,” Bronk said.
He added that the “Tu-95 has not been produced for more than 30 years and production/modernisation of the Tu-160 is at a very limited scale, so replacing losses will be very challenging. The Tu-22M3 that Russia uses to launch anti-ship quasi-ballistic missiles into Ukraine has also not been produced since the 1990s and at least two had already been lost or shot down since 2022.”
Cold Bomber Production Lines
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, Russia, like the United States and other NATO countries, reduced its forces and scaled back the production of tanks, planes, and ships.
Lacking both the funds for wildly expensive defense projects, as well as a clear geopolitical foe, the Russian defense industry languished. Russia’s bombers are no exception — many haven’t been produced in several decades.
In the United States, the vaunted F-22 Raptor stealth fighter production line also shut down due to a lack of a clear use case, given the United States’ position as the world’s sole superpower. Although an incredibly advanced stealth fighter, its place in a world without credible challengers no longer made sense, prompting the abrupt end of its assembly line.
What Will Russia Do Now About Those Bombers?
As details of Operation Spider’s Web continue to filter out to the public, a more complete operational picture will become clearer in the days ahead. But regardless of how many of Russia’s strategic bombers are destroyed and damaged precisely, Ukraine’s attack is both a strong blow and a massive surprise attack.
Perhaps Russian pro-Kremlin social media channels calling the attack Russia’s Pearl Harbor aren’t entirely off the mark.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
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