Key Points – While President Donald Trump has not personally brokered an end to the Russia-Ukraine war as promised, his administration’s actions—and inaction—are still profoundly transforming the conflict.
-According to a recent analysis by Splinter News, Trump’s perceived indifference to Ukraine’s fate, his rhetoric about it being a “European problem,” and his administration’s push to water down new sanctions are emboldening Vladimir Putin.
-Russia now believes it can “wait out” the United States, allowing it to maintain maximalist demands in stalled peace talks while grinding down Ukrainian forces, confident that significant future US military aid is unlikely.
Trump’s ‘Indifference’ to Ukraine is Giving Putin Hope He Can Win
Donald Trump promised, throughout the presidential campaign, to end the Russia-Ukraine war early on, perhaps even on his first day in office.
That, of course, did not happen, with the war still going strong nearly five months into Trump’s second presidency. Trump has upbraided Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, while even at times expressing public criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin, something Trump hasn’t been known to do in the past few years.
In recent weeks, Trump has appeared to lose interest in trying to bring about a peaceful settlement in the long war, with the most recent fruitless peace talks taking place in Istanbul, without any direct involvement from the Trump Administration. After Ukraine attacked Russia with drones and Russia retaliated, Trump told reporters that “sometimes you’re better off letting them fight for a while and then pulling them apart.”
But while Trump has not personally solved the war, he has nevertheless continued to have a significant effect on it.
“Transforming the War”
According to an analysis published this week on the American politics website Splinter News, as Ukraine and Russia continue to attack each other, “what the U.S. president does – and does not do – is still transforming the conflict.”
Splinter News quotes Rajan Menon, a senior research scholar at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, as stating that while Trump appears to be backing away from the conflict, his presence continues to have a significant effect on the goings-on in the war.
Russia is counting on Ukraine being ground down in the war, Menon told Splinter, as well as on something else: “Trump will not only give up on the peace talks, but might also say, ‘this is not our war,’ which he said many times. ‘We have an ocean between us and Ukraine. It’s really your European problem. Goodbye, I’m leaving – and, by the way, I’m also cutting off supplies to Ukraine.’”
Trump has been saying versions of this for a while. Meanwhile, he is unlikely to pass anything like the military help that the Biden Administration bestowed on Ukraine since the start of the war. The Administration has delivered the materials already promised and appropriated by the Biden Administration, but it’s unlikely that Congress is going to deliver another round of military aid.
And while Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has introduced legislation for a new round of sanctions that would punish countries that buy cheap energy from Russia, the Trump Administration is reportedly pushing to water down the measure.
Waiting the U.S. Out
In the Istanbul talks, the Russian side offered maximalist demands, including international recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and other disputed areas of Ukraine, as well as promises not to join NATO, as well as other demands that crossed lines that Ukraine had held.
That led to the presumption that Russia is hoping to continue the war and ultimately win it, even as Russia reportedly crossed the 1 million casualty mark earlier this week, per Ukraine’s government.
“Trump’s indifference to Ukraine’s fate is likely adding to Putin’s perception that he can wait out the United States, and the West more broadly, and win this war outright. That’s not a guarantee, especially considering Russia has failed to achieve its aims in more than three years of war,” Splinter said of the current moment of the war.
“But the United States is influencing the conflict, and as Trump shifts the U.S. stance on Ukraine, first in rhetoric, and potentially in more meaningful material support, it will continue to transform the war. Exactly how will depend on what the U.S. does, and how significantly Trump might pull back from Kyiv.”
About the Author
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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