While rising gas prices frequently pressure the White House ahead of key elections, it is difficult to say if the current situation will pressure President Trump into making a deal.
With the upcoming midterm elections threatening the Republican slim lead in the House and the Senate, a return to lower gas prices, something President Trump has repeatedly promised with the end of the conflict, would lower inflation concerns and clear a path for a successful election season.
Generic Oil Tanker Image. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
However, the administration has taken a firm public stance. After the initial collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire worked into the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) earlier in July, President Trump has threatened further escalation against Iranian infrastructure if new terms are not met.
The recent gasoline price spike to a $4.00 per gallon national average is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly renewed conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic has been reduced to just a handful of ships per day.
This situation directly impacts prices at the pump and influences the administration’s political decision-making process in several ways.
Affordability Is Likely To Be A Key Mid-Term Election Issue
Voters in November are likely to be concerned with affordability in the elections.
And the price of gas at the pump, despite many Americans changing their lifestyles somewhat since prices first spiked in March, affects everything else consumers purchase, especially in the United States, where everything is transported by truck.
And the price of gas keeps staring Americans in the face as they drive down their streets, with prices posted on signs on every gas station. And with the increase in gas prices comes an increase in food costs.
Oil Tanker. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, overall grocery prices have risen by 31 percent. Other costs such as utilities, health care, childcare, automobile costs, and the price of housing are all rising, and the effects will play a role in the election.
The Situation In Russia Is Also Keeping Gas And Oil Prices High
The Strait of Hormuz’s traffic is hardly the only factor in oil prices being what they are currently. The war in Ukraine is also affecting the price and availability of oil on the global market, and some analysts are concerned it could skyrocket costs.
President Trump briefly lifted the sanctions on Russia’s gas and oil industries to help ease oil shortages earlier this year. However, those sanctions are back in place, although they don’t currently matter.
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s gas and oil infrastructure and refineries have decimated their production, cutting 25 percent. Russia has been forced to halt exports of gas, oil, and diesel and is now importing gas from India and Belarus.
Sounding the alarm, Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNBC last week that “Any reduction in Russian crude exports could push prices far higher than $100.”
On Monday, the price of Brent crude futures dropped about $2 per barrel, trading at $82.73 at 11:00 a.m. But this is something the president has said would happen and is convinced it will drop once the conflict is resolved.
I think oil is going to be a little bit of a yo-yo. Goes up a little bit, goes down a little bit,” the president said to Fox Business last week. “And when this is over, oil is gonna drop like a rock.”
The Situation Is Fluid Right Now In Iran
With the resumption of hostilities, the ferocity of attacks has increased on both sides.
The Iranians have been playing the stalling game, trying to hold out until they believe that the November elections will usher in a wave of Democrats that will halt the conflict and give them victory.
But with the escalations, President Trump is following through on his threats to target Iranian infrastructure, bridges, and power plants that US Central Command (CENTCOM) has framed as being used by the Iranian military and the IRGC.
The US is wearing down Iranian defenses in a systematic manner that, despite their statements to the contrary, they can’t withstand indefinitely.
The US is bringing in more Wild Weasel aircraft that target anti-aircraft and anti-ship radars, and is operating at a sustainable pace.
Iran’s economy is in shambles, and this escalation, coupled with a renewed naval blockade, is taking a further huge toll on it.
Affordability in the US pales in comparison to what ordinary Iranians are feeling.
It will come down to who blinks first, but right now, neither side is giving an inch.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications
