Ukraine Can Win the War Against Russia

Key Points – Despite over three years of war and staggering Russian losses (approaching one million casualties claimed by some sources, with vast materiel destruction), Vladimir Putin remains committed to achieving victory in Ukraine.

-While President Trump pushes for a negotiated peace, potentially involving significant Ukrainian concessions, Ukraine has preserved its sovereignty and inflicted severe damage on Russia’s military.

-Ukraine can still win through a robust three-pronged approach: increased Western military aid including longer-range weapons to defeat Russia on the battlefield, tougher coordinated economic sanctions to cripple Russia’s war economy, and unwavering political resolve from the West, including leveraging Russia’s frozen assets.

Can Ukraine Win The War With Russia? Yes, There Is a Path

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dragged on for more than three years, and it appears, at least outwardly, that neither side is capable of winning the war militarily.

Most people believe that without Western support, Ukraine would lose the war. And for his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin likes to portray his war as going according to plan, but it has done nothing of the sort. Russia has suffered catastrophic losses in men, armored vehicles, and aircraft, as Ukrainian defenses have been much better than anyone would have believed.

Putin, being an absolute ruler and in control of his country’s press, has kept the truth from his people about the horrific casualties Russia has suffered. He is perfectly willing to continue the bloodbath as long as Russia is victorious in the end.

But what about Ukraine? Can they win the war?

Russian Casualties Have Been Horrific:

According to the British Defense Ministry, Russia has suffered 950,000 casualties (dead and wounded) in the war, as of May 3. It should be noted that Russia’s casualties in 2024 were the highest of any year of the war.

In terms of armored vehicles, armor, artillery, aircraft, and material, as of May 21:

Tanks — 10834 (+1)

Armored fighting vehicle — 22567 (+5)

Artillery systems — 28067 (+58)

MLRS — 1388 (+1)

Anti-aircraft warfare — 1167

Planes — 372

Helicopters — 336

UAV — 36621 (+118)

Cruise missiles — 3197

Ships (boats) — 28

Submarines — 1

The plus (+) numbers to the right show the increase from the day before.

Ukrainian losses have also been high – more than 400,000 total. Civilian deaths are estimated to be about 13,000, but that number is sure to rise.

President Trump Says Ukraine Can’t Win

U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that he has “been watching Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for years . . . negotiate with no cards. He has no cards, and you get sick of it.”

The Trump administration believes the only solution is to try to reach a peace plan with Putin, even if it means making multiple concessions to the Kremlin. To achieve such a rushed settlement, Trump’s team of negotiators may even revisit the so-called Istanbul agreements proposed by the Russians at the start of the war in 2022.

The Russian proposals during the Istanbul talks were highly unfavorable to Ukraine, including demands that Kyiv unilaterally abandon its NATO aspirations and announce permanent neutrality; refuse foreign weapons and hosting foreign military personnel; and reduce the size of its military and arms stockpiles.

As we all know, these demands are ridiculous and would be a total non-starter for Kyiv.

Ukraine has not collapsed, nor is the situation there as helpless as Trump makes it appear. Ukraine faced a full-scale invasion from the second-largest army in the world – an invasion that no one thought Ukraine would resist for more than a couple of weeks.

Instead, Ukraine blunted the attack and inflicted horrible casualties on the invading Russian military. It has since been able to preserve its sovereignty and existence as an independent state, in addition to militarily exhausting and draining Russia, and trapping Putin in a meatgrinder of his own making.

The Ukrainian Army has even managed to achieve what was considered utterly inconceivable a decade ago: It has occupied Russian territory and conducted successful intelligence operations inside Russia.

With the current state of the war, it would be foolish for Ukraine to grant Russia the favorable conditions that the U.S. administration is trying to force on them. Washington and President Trump have been adamant about getting the killing to stop.

How Can Ukraine Win The War?

The Ukrainians have mainly been fighting a war of attrition, trying to inflict as many casualties on Russian military units as possible, in hopes of ultimately forcing them to give up their plan to conquer Ukraine.

A three-prong approach is needed to derail Putin’s dream of installing a multipolar world order that would reverse the verdict of the Cold War and create a world divided into spheres of influence.

First, militarily, Russia’s war machine is close to being spent. They can’t produce enough armor and armored vehicles to keep up with their losses. They began the war with vast reserves of men and armor, and while they still have plenty of manpower in reserve, they’ve been wasting their armor in poorly coordinated attacks that throw away men and machines to win a few yards of ground.

Worse, their reserve armor is increasingly older, less capable, and in poorer condition. The West has been needlessly cautious in its dealings with Putin, denying Ukraine the weapons needed to defeat Russia militarily. Putin has preyed upon this fear of escalation.

If the U.S. does cut aid to Ukraine, Europe must cut a deal with Washington to buy arms and ammunition and then turn them over to the Ukrainians. This means more fighters, artillery, and tanks, longer-range missiles, infantry fighting vehicles, and ammunition. Ukraine also needs more drones of all shapes and sizes.

The second prong is economic. Russia’s economy is already worsening due to the war, and its fall could accelerate if Western leaders are willing to take the necessary steps.

Greater coordination is needed among the United States, the UK, the EU, and other countries sanctioning the Russian war effort. Existing sanctions remain inadequate, while tougher measures are needed to target intermediaries.

Third, politically, Putin has been banking on the erosion of Western support. The West needs to harden its rhetoric and make it crystal clear that Russia will not win win this war militarily.

There should be no talk of allowing Putin to save face by claiming any kind of victory. As a further political action, the West should threaten Russia’s frozen funds. If Putin fails to comply with actual peace talks, then Europe should tell him all of those frozen funds will be turned over to Ukraine. Or, perhaps, do this no matter what Russia does.

It won’t be easy, but that’s how Ukraine can win.

About the Author

Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.

Europe’s Ukraine War in Focus

The British Army Has a Massive Tank Shortage 

What Happens if America Quits NATO?