Key Points – US officials now assess that Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike on June 1st hit as many as 20 Russian warplanes, destroying around 10, according to a June 5th Reuters report.
-This figure is roughly half the 41 aircraft initially claimed by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and the SBU. Despite the lower US estimate, the attack on multiple Russian airbases deep within Russia is still considered highly significant.
-It reportedly prompted Vladimir Putin to vow retaliation and harden his negotiating stance, even as US President Donald Trump privately described the audacious Ukrainian operation as “strong” and “bad***.”
Ukraine Massively Inflated Its Operation Spider’s Web “Hit” Figures
Ukraine’s surprise assault on four Russian air bases, dubbed Operation Spider’s Web, doesn’t seem to have been as successful as Kyiv claimed.
Speaking to Reuters, two U.S. officials have revealed the extent to which Ukrainian officials exaggerated the extent of the damage done during the strikes.
“The United States assesses that Ukraine’s drone attack over the weekend hit as many as 20 Russian warplanes, destroying around 10 of them, two U.S. officials told Reuters, a figure that is about half the number estimated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy,” Reuters reported on Thursday, June 5.
Ukraine’s domestic security agency, the SBU, also gave a higher figure. One source within the agency told the Kyiv Independent that Ukrainian first-person-view drones smuggled deep inside Russia and hidden inside trucks hit 41 Russian heavy bombers across the four airfields targeted in the strike.
It remains unclear whether Ukrainian officials deliberately inflated the figures or based their conclusions on evidence Western officials have not yet seen. In recent days, National Security Journal attempted to determine the true number of planes damaged using open-source intelligence, our figures also suggest Ukraine either damaged fewer planes than claimed, or Kyiv simply has access to evidence that has not been made available publicly or to Western leaders.
Trump Is Impressed
While the West estimates that far less damage was done than Ukraine believes, the attack remains significant for many reasons. Not only was the assault damaging enough to prompt Russian President Vladimir Putin to tell U.S. President Donald Trump that negotiations are no longer on the cards and that he intends to retaliate, but Trump himself has even praised Ukrainian ingenuity behind the scenes.
Axios reported on Thursday morning that while President Donald Trump was not informed of the strike ahead of time, he has described it as “strong” and “bad***.”
“Pretty strong,” Trump reportedly told one confidant, who relayed the comment to Axios.
“He thought it was bad***,” a second source said.
A Trump adviser also told the outlet that the White House was impressed by the attack, comparing it to a “chihuahua inflicting some real damage on a much bigger dog.”
Reuters also reported that U.S. officials still believe that the attack is highly significant, with one cautioning that it could have caused so much damage that Moscow is now considering a more severe negotiating position.
If Ukraine’s attack had been as damaging as Kyiv claimed, there’s no telling how much worse Putin’s already concerning response might have been.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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