The struggle to protect the skies over Ukraine persists as NATO scrambles to deliver valuable Patriot interceptors to Kyiv.
Since the Patriot air defense system was first delivered to Ukraine, Kyiv has struggled with limited stocks of air defense missiles.
A 35th Fighter Squadron F-16 Fighting Falcon flies near the Korean peninsula during a dogfighting training scenario during exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield 25 at Kunsan Air Base, Republic of Korea, Aug. 20, 2025. UFS25 is a combined, joint, all-domain military training exercise that integrates ground, air, naval, space, cyber and information elements, enhancing readiness through realistic combat simulations. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Landon Gunsauls)
In 2026, however, limited supplies have turned into crippling shortages as the country’s air defense supply has largely dried up.
Capitalizing on Kyiv’s weakened state, Russia has been bombarding Ukraine ruthlessly using ballistic missiles that Ukraine can no longer reliably intercept. According to some estimates, Russia launched 150 Iskander ballistic missiles against Kyiv, only seven of which were intercepted.
Ukraine’s Search for Air Defenses
President Zelenskyy has been attempting once again to convince the West to donate more Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine as Moscow ramps up its strikes against Kyiv.
The Ukrainian President recently met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, during which he urged NATO to provide more air defenses. “It is important to cut through all red tape and make the necessary political decisions,” Zelenskyy told Rutte. “Literally every day, people’s lives here in Ukraine depend on the resolve of our partners in Europe and the United States.”
Speaking at a National Security and Defense Council meeting on winter resilience, Zelenskyy suggested that Western allies may be intentionally withholding missile supplies to make Ukraine “more compliant.”
Zelensky further noted that deliveries from Western nations have slowed considerably in the first half of 2026. Supplies of air defenses have reportedly fallen to only one-third of their 2025 levels. “Our partners do have the missiles. It is important that the necessary political decisions on supplies and the acceleration of production processes are ultimately made – including decisions on localization in Ukraine,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media. Concerns about air defenses are further exacerbated by the upcoming winter, during which Russia is expected to launch a large-scale aerial campaign to disable the country’s electrical grid.
Ukraine also expects Russia to dramatically step up its production of ballistic missiles ahead of time to inflict maximum damage during the winter.
Expect No Deliveries From the U.S. Anytime Soon
Unfortunately for Ukraine, Patriot interceptors are in especially high demand at this point.
The United States, which is the primary manufacturer of PAC-3 missiles, is currently locked in a war with Iran.
According to some estimates, the war in the Middle East has consumed around 65% of the U.S.’s inventory of air defense missiles. Another CSIS report estimated that at the current production rate, it will take about 3 years to replenish the U.S. stock to prewar levels.
America’s allies in the Gulf region have likewise depleted their stocks of PAC-3s. According to some estimates, the Gulf states fired more than 1,100 Patriot missiles collectively since the start of the war.
With the threat of Iranian ballistic missiles still present, the U.S. simply does not have missiles to spare at the moment.
Furthermore, current production rates are simply insufficient to meet Kyiv’s needs.
Last year, Lockheed Martin produced around 600 missiles globally.
Even if all these missiles were rerouted to Kyiv, ignoring the needs of the U.S., the Middle East, and NATO, they would still be unable to adequately defend the skies above Kyiv.
Steps are being taken to increase production of PAC-3’s around the world. Europe is expecting its first Patriot factory to open in Germany in September of this year.
The U.S. Department of War likewise secured several contracts with Lockheed Martin, the primary manufacturer of Patriot missiles, to ramp up production of PAC-3 interceptors to meet rising demand.
Lockheed intends to ramp up its missile production rate over the next four years, aiming to produce 2,000 missiles per year by 2030.
Increasing Production of PAC-3 Missiles
There is still the question of PAC-3 production in Ukraine. At the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, Trump expressed his desire to give Kyiv a license to produce Patriot missiles domestically.
Last week, the President rescinded his statements, likely after being told PAC-3 production was realistically unobtainable.
Zelenskyy, however, has since been pursuing the option of opening up a production line in Ukraine.
One idea that has been suggested is to allow Kyiv to produce one or more of the subcomponents required for PAC-3 missiles, with full assembly taking place elsewhere in Europe.
Even with this compromise, there are still numerous risks in allowing any Patriot component to be manufactured in Kyiv.
Any defense-related factory built on Ukrainian soil is practically begging for a visit from a Russian ballistic missile.
Even if the global production rate on PAC-3 were to increase, Ukraine still has to compete with the rate at which Russia produces its missiles.
According to Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, the Russian defense industry delivered approximately 700 Iskander ballistic missiles to the Russian Armed Forces in 2025 and is currently producing approximately 55-60 such missiles per month.
Production of RM-48U ballistic missiles, which are fired from S-300/S-400 air defense launchers, is also at a steady rate of 50 per month.
There is also the issue of cruise missiles, missile deliveries from North Korea, and attack drones, which are produced in the hundreds per month. In short, global Patriot production is insufficient to satisfy Ukraine’s needs.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
