Key Points and Summary – While not facing imminent collapse, Russia is on an unsustainable path due to the immense strain of the Ukraine war.
-The conflict is exacerbating deep-seated crises, including a catastrophic demographic decline, rampant corruption, and growing social demotivation.
-The economy shows serious signs of stress, with a growing fiscal deficit and the central bank preparing to print trillions of rubles, risking hyperinflation.
-Public opinion is turning against the war, and diplomatic pressure is mounting. The combined weight of these factors suggests that while President Putin’s regime may not fall tomorrow, it is living on borrowed time.
Will Russia Collapse Under the Weight Of the War In Ukraine?
Russia is not facing imminent collapse. But its economy is increasingly challenged by the Kremlin’s continuing war in Ukraine, the country’s reliance on volatile oil revenues, and the effects of Western sanctions.
Despite some resilience in the face of these challenges, Russia’s economy faces growing pressure, especially due to reduced oil income and increased military spending. Internal factors, such as potential labor shortages and social unrest, also undermine the regime’s stability.
Russia’s economy is increasingly geared toward supporting the war effort, leading to increased military spending and potentially hindering civilian-sector growth.
Western sanctions, especially those targeting Russian oil and gas exports, have significantly affected Russia’s revenue streams. The war has exacerbated labor shortages in Russia, leading to increased wages and potential cash flow issues for businesses outside the defense sector.
Rising prices, particularly for imported goods, are affecting the Russian public, which could lead to social unrest. If the war continues and the economy remains strained, there is a risk of hyperinflation and a collapse of the wartime economy.
Will Russia Head Toward A Soviet Union-style Breakup?
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued control over the political system remains a key factor in Russia’s stability. Challenges to his authority could emerge if the war continues to go poorly or the economy deteriorates significantly.
Russia has kept a lid on bad news about the war, as it controls the media and manages reports of casualties that are released to the public. In reality, Russia has suffered more than 1 million casualties in the war in Ukraine. And it is not a matter of if, but when, that information truly hits the public. It is bound to cause unrest. Yet Putin remains unwilling to discuss a peace deal to stop the war.
Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges was the first to recognize the threat Russia faces from collapse, shortly after the invasion began in 2022. The retired three-star general was the former head of European Command and was also the one-time Pershing Chair for Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
“There are centrifugal forces at work that are going to pull it apart,” Hodges told Australia’s ABC News Daily podcast. “I believe we need to be prepared for the possibility of the break-up of the Russian Federation.”
The Signs Of Russia’s Collapse Are Evident
Yuri Bohdanov wrote an intriguing piece for Euromaidan Press on why Russia is headed for collapse. A few bullet points from Bohdanov:
“The population is decreasing by 1 million annually, and the demographic potential needed to maintain Putin’s planned empire has already been exhausted. This decline disproportionately affects ethnic Russian regions, while the Caucasus maintains population growth – a pattern that intensifies ethnic and religious tensions, setting the stage for future conflicts.
“Under Putin’s leadership, Russia has devolved into pure kleptocracy, and national corruption is rampant, with national resources concentrated in the hands of a tiny elite. This corruption-fueled system paralyzes normal economic development, replacing the rule of law with a network of personal loyalties and informal agreements.
“Putin has achieved unprecedented levels of social demotivation, creating exactly what he sought: an atomized, opportunistic society. The result is a population stripped of meaning and motivation. The war in Ukraine has only deepened this crisis, producing a massive class of armed, traumatized criminals who will struggle to reintegrate into civilian life.”
Putin Knows Russia Is Living On Borrowed Time
As the news from Ukraine shows no sign of improving, the country’s resistance remains steadfast, and Western support only seems to be strengthening. Putin is beginning to see the war as unwinnable, or at best as leading to a Pyrrhic victory.
Owen Matthews, a correspondent for the Independent, believes that Russia today is living on borrowed time.
“Russia has begun running a fiscal deficit of some 1.5 per cent of GDP,” Matthews writes. “And most seriously of all, global oil prices have fallen a precipitous 35 per cent this year. As a result, Russia’s Central Bank is set to print 15 trillion roubles (£142bn) in cash come October – the largest issuance since the hyperinflation of the 1990s.
“According to a study by Levada, Russia’s last independent pollster, in June, 64 per cent of respondents favored peace talks, which is six percentage points up since March. At the same time, the number of people who wanted the war to continue fell to 28 per cent, down from 34 per cent in March.“
Putin agreed to come to Alaska to get President Trump to broker a peace treaty. He hopes Trump will guarantee Russia’s claims to the Ukrainian regions of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, without Russia having to fight over them any longer.
But the Monday meeting in Washington between Trump and a number of European leaders showed that Putin overplayed his hand. While U.S. media flocked to show that Putin had beaten Trump, the NATO countries coming to the White House in solidarity for Ukraine are putting Putin in a corner. If he refuses to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Putin will once again be cast as a pariah.
Putin played for time, but time is running out. He may not fall tomorrow, or even this year, but Russia cannot keep up its war with Ukraine; it faces collapse.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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August 24, 2025 at 12:59 pm
Unlikely. Though russia has defaulted in debt repayment previously.
So, who’s gonna collapse.In 2025.
The nazi regime of herr zelenskyy. Obviously.
Events now have shown to russia nobody’s reliable except for north korea.
Trump? Nah.China Yechhhh. india? No go.
So, What’s to be relied on.
Nukes, tactical nukes.
To smash the nazis, russia must employ nukes. Especially against all the airfields, airports, airbases and air depots belonging to zelenskyy’s nazis.
That will wake up all the rest of the big hypocritical folks, like trump, rubio, starmer, macron and rutte and merz.
And xi jinping.
What would they do. Fight?
Just one ICBM on Taipei will finish them all, kaput them thoroughly. Send them to the cleaners.
And then, herr zelenskyy will be gone from the scene.