Persistent attacks in the Black Sea are causing a worldwide rise in wheat prices as importers desperately seek alternative solutions during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Both Russia and Ukraine have intensified attacks on each other’s Black Sea ports, grain terminals and commercial vessels in recent weeks, causing widespread disruption across the world.
Putin in Meeting In January 2023 Creative Commons Photo
Putin Back in 2025 Creative Commons Photo
Wheat prices have risen to their highest level for three years as a result of the ongoing disruption.
The Weight of Wheat
Both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of wheat, accounting for 27% of global exports in total.
Even short-term disruption in the Black Sea can cause prices to soar quickly given the sheer volume of wheat that passes through the waterway.
Since July, both sides have ramped up attacks on ports, grain terminals, and vessels as part of a wider strategy to disrupt the enemy’s economy.
For much of the conflict, both Russia and Ukraine have expanded their military operations beyond targeting enemy units or artillery, recognizing the effectiveness of inflicting damage on each other’s economies on their respective war efforts.
This has substantially raised the price of wheat worldwide.
At the end of June, the worldwide price of wheat was 590.5 USD/bu. By the week commencing Monday, 24th August, that figure had risen to 767 USD/bu – a 30% increase in eight weeks.
That figure is the highest since June 2023, but still well below the record of 1175 USD/bu set in the first week of the war.
Black Sea Strikes
Ukrainian wheat exports have been heavily hit during the recent period of intensified attacks.
Russian strikes have removed approximately one-third of Ukraine’s grain-export capacity, with Black Sea ports heavily affected.
90% of Ukraine’s exports transit through the Black Sea, and recent strikes have forced Kyiv to redirect cargo to the lower-capacity Danube ports and through railway networks to the rest of Europe.
Likewise, Russian exports are also feeling the strain. Russia’s Black Sea ports – responsible for more than 70% of the country’s grain exports- have been targeted by Ukraine.
Furthermore, Ukrainian drone attacks on major terminals at Novorossiysk were so damaging that operations were forced into suspension.
Alternatives Required
Given the region’s suitability for agriculture and wide availability of food commodities, Black Sea wheat has typically been cheaper than worldwide counterparts.
Including cargo and freight costs, Black Sea wheat typically sells between $260 and $280 per ton.
By contrast, Australian and Argentinian wheat can sell anywhere from $310 up to $330 per ton.
The ongoing conflict in the Black Sea is therefore forcing food-importing nations to buy pricier alternatives, with some paying as much as $70 per ton more than before.
Growing shipping delays and uncertainty about whether purchases will ever arrive are forcing buyers such as Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Sri Lanka to seek elsewhere.
Cost Concerns
The sheer volume of wheat exported through the Black Sea, along with the fact that both Russia and Ukraine are targeting each other’s export mechanisms, means ongoing disruption will continue to drive prices.
It’s not necessarily the destruction of wheat that’s the issue. Shipowners, fearful that their vessels may be caught up in the conflict, may refuse voyages, demand higher freight rates, delay loading or divert to safer ports. The risk of an attack alone can raise wheat prices, even if the wheat itself remains undamaged.
For richer buyers in the West, that problem means little more than a costlier receipt with an alternative supplier.
The cost of living may rise, but there will always be a guarantee that supplies will be aplenty for nations which can afford to switch sellers.
Countries which rely heavily on wheat imports, however, will be deeply concerned.
North Africa, for example, is largely unsuitable for wheat production, and so most nations in the region rely heavily on Black Sea exports.
If grain prices keep rising, poorer governments may face a dilemma: raise supermarket prices or spend even more on subsidies.
Naturally, that raises the cost of living, whether through more expensive grocery visits for consumers or through taxes imposed by a government needing to balance its books; it’s a slippery slope for countries already on the verge of widespread unrest.
About the Author: Shay Bottomley
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist. He has written for the Western Standard, Business Insider, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo.
