Does anyone still remember way back when the prospect of a missile or other aerodynamic weapon system launched from Ukraine hitting a target on actual Russian territory was a terrifying prospect? This would result in horrific “E” word coming to pass –escalation of the conflict into a global war – those of us who were calling for Ukraine to receive long-range weapons from the US, we were told repetitively.
This was the hallmark of Joe Biden’s presidency, who, as The Atlantic described it, ensured that the war would continue indefinitely as he “thought of the conflict as a crisis to be managed, not a war to be won.”
HIMARS. Image Credit: U.S. Government.
Tennessee Army National Guard Soldiers with Alpha Battery, 1-181st Field Artillery Regiment conduct a training exercise using the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) at Camp Shelby, Mississippi, June 9. The unit’s annual training enhances battalion readiness, focuses on mission-essential tasks and ensures Soldiers are proficient in critical skills. (U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. Grayson Cavaliere)
HIMARS Rocket. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
His decision to finally permit strikes with shorter-range US systems like the HIMARS rocket artillery system came only after 33 months of the war. During this almost three-year period, Russia consistently launched long-range missile and drone attacks almost anywhere in Ukraine the Kremlin wanted, and Moscow also increasingly began using Iranian- and North Korean-made weapons to do so.
As the magazine recalls in this November 2024 assessment, “Biden has promised the Ukrainians that he will stand by them ‘for as long as it takes’— but he has nevertheless made sure that the war has gone on much longer than it had to.”
Now, in May 2026, as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “10-day Special Military Operation” inches up on the counter towards day number 1600, Ukraine is hitting targets inside of Russia on practically a daily basis and doing so at will. Moreover, it is striking at not just military sites and command centers, but also at strategic facilities that are essential to Putin’s ability to keep funding his war effort.
These include some of the largest oil refineries and gas transit facilities in Russia, as well as many of the terminals and ports needed to load oil onto tankers for export.
Changing the Dynamic in the Ukraine War
Ukraine’s drone and missile attacks have sharply altered the dynamic of this war and have made it one in which Moscow no longer has the initiative, no longer has the upper hand in the war of air, drone, and missile strikes, and – most importantly – no longer shows any chance of prevailing in the conflict.
The Washington, DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think-tank’s 25 May assessment concludes, “Ukraine is actively challenging the positional character of the war that has dominated the battlefield since 2023. Russian battlefield gains are approaching net zero, while Ukrainian forces are setting conditions potentially to break out of positional warfare by reintroducing limited elements of mechanized maneuver at the tactical level.”
With an ominous warning about what could be in store for Russia’s forces in the near future, the ISW now reports that “Ukraine has re-secured an overall drone advantage and fielded systems capable of disrupting Russian forces throughout their operational depth in support of planned Ukrainian offensive or defensive ground operations.”
The 1-148th Field Artillery Regiment is the latest unit in the Idaho Army National Guard to upgrade its combat capability as modernization efforts across the U.S. Army and Army National Guard take shape.
In plain language, a new-generation version of combined arms, which military experts used to refer to as the “Air-Land Battle.” It is the type of warfare that Russia’s military always claimed they were the world’s experts at, but which they have shown almost no signs of having any institutional memory of ever since the February 2022 invasion.
Long and Medium Range Strikes
Long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, which were once a surprise to Putin’s military, are now so frequent that they are not just hitting valuable targets in Russia’s rear. They are also testing – as well as wearing down – Russian air defenses and straining Moscow’s logistics.
They are also a major boost for Kyiv’s war effort. After years of almost robotically chanting “there is no way the Ukrainians can win,” and wanting to look the other way, Western governments are now reconsidering how much they are willing to do to support the Ukrainian military and their defense companies.
But attacks on shorter-range targets are also causing the Russian military no end of headaches.
Ukraine has been systematically and increasingly interdicting Russian supply lines across southern Ukraine – as well as along the land bridge that connects mainland Russia to Crimea.
These attacks that occur in the 50-to-150-kilometer range have become the most damaging for Moscow’s war effort in recent months. These Middle Strike operations or Mid-Range Strikes have effectively cut off Crimea from the rest of Russia. But they have done so through drone-based interdiction of supply routes rather than through an armored force ground offensive that Western analysts had predicted.
It seems that these low-cost drones can be assembled quickly and cheaply and can accomplish what some of the most expensive and sophisticated Western tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery have failed to do.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, with a specialization in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
