Ukraine’s expanding campaign of drone strikes has allowed Kyiv’s forces to grapple with the Russian war machine and wrest back parts of formerly occupied territory on a larger scale for the first time since the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive. Bloodied on the battlefield in Ukraine, Russia is, however, feeling the pressure elsewhere: in Russia itself.
Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russia’s oil and gas facilities throughout the country are exerting acute pressure on a Russian populace that was by and large insulated from the direct effects of the war, raising questions about the Kremlin’s wartime strategy and how it is prosecuting the war. The strikes force Russia to shuffle its air defenses around, in some cases moving them from the front line back to Russia to protect infrastructure in the heart of Russia itself.
Putin on July 7, 2002 Image Credit from Creative Commons
In a sign of just how stretched Russian air defenses have become, one of Russia’s biggest annual economic events, the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, narrowly avoided going up in flames.
The Saint Petersburg Economic Forum
Before the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the St. Petersburg Economic Forum had been Russia’s annual economic showcase, drawing investors and businesspeople to Russia from all over the world. It had typically been a singular opportunity for the city to showcase Russian business and investment potential. This year’s event, however, was remarkably subdued.
Only two national leaders arrived at this year’s forum: the heads of state of Uzbekistan and Tanzania. An American delegation was also in attendance, but instead of elected officials or close acolytes of the president, the head of the mission was a comparatively junior representative, Rodney Mims Cook Jr., who is the Chairman of the Commission of Fine Arts. It was, in a few words, not the strongest showing in the event’s history.
An Annual Economic Forum Tarnished
On his Telegram channel, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky explained that Kyiv’s recent strikes on St. Petersburg were effective, and hit “two targets within the city,” the Kronstadt military complex, which is used by the Russian navy, as well as an oil refinery within the city, the Saint Petersburg Oil Terminal. “Ukraine’s plan for long-range sanctions is being implemented exactly as needed to bring peace closer,” President Zelensky said to his channel followers.
Tu-160 Bomber Russian Air Force Photo
The economic forum day in St. Petersburg went ahead as planned, though the Ukrainian strikes cast a pall on the event. “The Petersburg forum is opening with a nice plume of black smoke in the background after Ukrainian strikes,” Sergiy Sternenko, a Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser, said.
Victory Day Parade Upset
In a sign of how concerned Russia is about the Ukrainian drone campaign, Russian authorities opted earlier last month to hold a truncated Victory Day parade at Red Square in Moscow. The annual event is typically full of pomp and spectacle, showcasing some of Russia’s most sophisticated military hardware.
But the optics of a Ukrainian strike on the parade itself could not be ignored, and for the first time in a generation, the parade, which commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, was much smaller in scale.
Russian Oil Facilities in the Crosshairs
While the war in Iran has been a modest economic boon to Russian energy exports, that small windfall has been degraded by Ukraine’s expanding drone strike campaign against Russian oil and gas refineries and transportation infrastructure.
While Russia is naturally one of the world’s leading oil exporters, oil and gas refineries throughout the country have increasingly come under attack.
Even locations many thousands of kilometers from the front lines in Ukraine have been put under pressure by Ukraine’s burgeoning drone campaign, part of a broader strategy by Kyiv to put a dent in the Kremlin’s coffers and Russia’s ability to finance the ongoing war.
But by bringing the fight to Russia itself, Ukraine has managed to tarnish the feeling of safety previously enjoyed by most Russians living in Russia, while also forcing Russia’s hand.
Now, not only must Russia protect its military assets in Ukraine, but it must also contend with the possibility of Ukrainian drone strikes, perhaps anywhere in the world’s largest country — a difficult prospect to successfully defend against.
Future Insecurity
While Ukraine’s expanding wave of strikes on Russian positions in Ukraine certainly put the Russian war machine on the back foot and increased pressure on Russia’s civilian population at home, they may not be enough by themselves to win the war decisively in Kyiv’s favor.
Still, they come at a time of increasing precariousness for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, and put his effort to wrest control of Ukraine on unstable ground. With the offensive season now here, this summer appears poised to be a difficult time for Russia.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
