In what was one of the most confusing moments in recent geopolitical history, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran agreed to a much-ballyhooed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that extended the already-shaky ceasefire between the two powers, which had been in place since late April, for another 60 days.
In the late hours of Sunday, though, the two sides agreed to the MoU, with an official signing ceremony scheduled for this Friday.
F-35I Adir. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
An earlier article detailing the 14-point MoU between Iran and the US was published on this site last week, at least as it was understood then.
But we should focus on the one point that everyone in Washington seems to be ignoring.
It’s actually the most important point of the 14-point MoU.
The Iran War Ceasefire Nobody Could Agree On
That’s point number four, which demands that the Israelis stop their attacks against suspected Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon.
Per the agreement, Tehran lists Lebanese sovereignty (meaning it must be free from airstrikes) as an inextricable component for the ceasefire to work.
Here’s the problem: the United States isn’t attacking Lebanon. Its Israeli allies are striking Southern Lebanon.
Oh, and the Israeli government maintains that, since the Trump administration did not include it in the negotiations for the 60-day ceasefire with Iran, Tel Aviv is not bound by that ceasefire.
Not only is Tel Aviv arguing it isn’t bound by that agreement, but Tehran insists that the Israelis must do more than simply stop their bombardment of Lebanon.
Instead, Iran’s rulers are demanding that Netanyahu’s regime immediately pull the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) out of Southern Lebanon entirely.
F-35I Adir. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Point Four Changes Everything
Prime Minister Netanyahu has already communicated to US President Donald Trump, his purported partner in this war, that he will not comply with Iranian stipulations in the MoU.
And if both the United States and Israel do not follow those directives in the 14-point MoU, then the Iranians will restart the war. Indeed, many news reports from the last 24 hours indicate that the Iranians were preparing a massive retaliation against Israel for its continued attacks against Iran’s allies in the Lebanese Shiite militia, Hezbollah.
There’s no consensus here.
So long as Tehran believes that Washington has guaranteed the ceasefire by reining in Tel Aviv in Lebanon, and as long as Netanyahu keeps telling Trump and Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei “no,” the MoU likely won’t last another three days. Even if Israel did want to follow along with Trump’s MoU with Iran, the fact is that the Israeli military is in full swing inside Southern Lebanon.
Pulling them back would be an ordeal. And there’d be nothing stopping Hezbollah from unleashing waves of counterattacks upon the IDF. That’s not even mentioning the fact that Hezbollah has done significant damage to the advancing IDF elements in Southern Lebanon (because the IDF has not adapted to the new way of war).
An Israeli Air Force pilot climbs into an F-35I Adir prior to a Red Flag-Nellis 23-2 mission at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, March 16, 2023. Red Flag is an opportunity to build on the success of JUNIPER OAK 23-2, JUNIPER FALCON, and additional combined exercises to enhance interoperability with Israel, strengthen bilateral cooperation, and improve capabilities in ways that enhance and promote regional stability and reinforce the United States’ enduring commitment to Israel’s security. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Trevor Bell)
Israel Never Signed the Deal
Anyway, there’s no indication yet that Tel Aviv is even interested in complying with Trump’s deal. Seemingly overnight, popular opinion in Israel about Trump and the American war effort against their hated Iranian enemy has shifted against the US.
Even Israelis who dislike Netanyahu are angry with Trump for not “finishing the job” against Iran.
Under these conditions, and given the fact that Netanyahu’s government has little incentive to end its sweeping operations in Southern Lebanon, one can anticipate Israel continuing its offensives in Southern Lebanon.
Already, the Iranians outlined strikes against Beirut as a red line that would end the MoU. Just before the MoU was set to be agreed to between Washington and Tehran, Tel Aviv ordered airstrikes against suspected Hezbollah targets in southern Beirut. That event is what nearly railroaded the MoU’s informal signing yesterday.
Because Trump signed the agreement, and the agreement is clearly good for Iran, the Iranian Armed Forces stayed their hand–vowing to retaliate and break the MoU with Washington if America’s ally, Israel, conducted any further attacks.
Guess what? Israel might already be planning to wage a sweeping campaign in Southern Lebanon. They do not consider themselves parties to the agreement. Netanyahu clearly feels betrayed by Trump. The Israelis believe their security is being sacrificed for Trump’s near-term political needs. And the Iranians walk away from this deal in a stronger position than they’ve ever been in.
An Israeli Air Force pilot walks to an F-35I Adir prior to a Red Flag-Nellis 23-2 mission at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, March 15, 2023. Red Flag is an opportunity to build on the success of JUNIPER OAK 23-2, JUNIPER FALCON, and additional combined exercises to enhance interoperability with Israel, strengthen bilateral cooperation, and improve capabilities in ways that enhance and promote regional stability and reinforce the United States’ enduring commitment to Israel’s security. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Trevor Bell)
Tehran Expects Washington to Control Tel Aviv
Israel will continue striking suspected Hezbollah targets in Lebanon with the full force of the IDF. That will, in turn, collapse any 60-day ceasefire possibly before the official signing on Friday. The whole MoU spectacle was little more than a waste of everyone’s time. Israel will not comply.
Iran will not disassociate the United States from Israel (partly because Washington won’t do anything to exercise real control over the Israelis).
Missiles will again be flying soon, and bombs will again be dropping all across the Middle East because Israel’s leadership cannot brook any semblance of compromise, even if it means alienating their American partners.
The Ceasefire Is an Illusion
Make no mistake. Israel cannot afford even a 60-day ceasefire to take hold. Since they don’t believe they’re governed by the agreement anyway, the war will continue. And it will pull the Americans back into it once more. Mark my words.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is the National Security Editor. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert also hosts “National Security Talk” on Rumble. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, the most recent of which is A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
