At the beginning of this year, world events seemed to be leaning in Russia’s favor. Distracted by military action in Venezuela and Iran, with the potential for conflict in Cuba and other parts of the world, the Trump Administration’s attention and interest in resolving the war in Ukraine through a peace deal seemed to be on life support. Perhaps waning interest in Washington would provide a window of opportunity, thought the Kremlin. But those hopes have since been dashed by what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has termed Ukraine’s “long-range sanctions” regime against Russia: or, put another way, the pummeling of Russian oil and gas infrastructure within Russia itself.
The effect of that campaign has been vivid: fuel shortages and rationing in 56 Russian regions — as well as a rare admission from Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukrainian strikes are squeezing civilians within Russia itself.
TOS-1. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The Situation in Crimea
Last week, the leaders of Russia’s puppet government in occupied Ukraine declared a state of emergency thanks to a dearth of fuel and intermittent power outages across the occupied peninsula. Blackouts in Sevastopol, Crimea’s leading city, have persisted for days due to repeated Ukrainian attacks on the city’s power grid and its primary electricity substation.
Russian forces annexed Ukraine’s Crimea over a decade ago, in a lightning-fast campaign in 2014. The peninsula has been the object of singular focus for the Russian president and was linked to the Russian mainland in 2019. But Ukrainian strikes on Crimea have shaken Russia’s foothold there on the Black Sea. Summer vacation camps for children have been suspended in Crimea, and access to fuel for automobiles has been suspended for civilian purposes, with police and military exempt.
Explosions in the Russian Heartland
But Crimea has not been the only area to have been subjected to Ukrainian bombardment, and Russia’s capital city, Moscow, has found itself the target of Ukrainian ire on multiple occasions.
Two F-16 Vipers from the 314th Fighter Squadron at Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico, fly next to a KC-135 Stratotanker from the 121st Air Refueling Wing at Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, Columbus, Ohio, over New Mexico, Nov. 15, 2022. The 314th FS trains the next generation of F-16 Viper pilots over the Holloman and White Sands Missile training ranges. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Antonio Salfran)
U.S. Air Force Capt. Aimee “Rebel” Fiedler, F-16 Viper Demonstration Team commander and pilot, flies at the Stuart Air Show, FL, Nov 11, 2023. The F-16 Fighting Falcon is capable of speeds of up to mach 2 or twice the speed of sound. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Dallin Wrye)
Waves of bomb-laden Ukrainian drones have rained down on targets throughout the city, but in particular against oil refineries in and around the Moscow region.
The Ukrainian strike campaign has brought the war that Russia began into the Russian heartland and forced Russians living there to take a hard look at a war that they had previously been insulated from.
Internet and GPS disruptions have been commonplace as a result of Russian efforts to jam incoming drone waves. Moscow’s four largest airports, Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, Vnukovo, and Zhukovsky, have experienced multiple closures and flight disruptions due to incoming drone attacks and flight safety concerns.
Energy Infrastructure Targeted, Economy Flatlining
Russia enjoyed a financial windfall due to the war in Iran and rising global oil prices.
International Monetary Fund adjusted its economic predictions for Russian economic growth modestly to 1.1 percent, up from its pre-war estimate of just 0.3 percent. But that brief upward trend was hardly enough to boost Russian state revenue in the long term.
Russia’s wartime economy initially defied predictions of economic collapse, as entire industries broadened production of materiel to further the Russian war machine’s aims in Ukraine. Heated up by strong production in the defense sector, Russian unemployment is at a historically low level. But the private sector has, consequently, faced a labor shortage.
Private firms are unable to compete with the sky-high salaries and sign-up bonuses offered to new recruits by the Russian defense ministry, as well as generous post-service housing and educational opportunities and a massive debt-relief program.
Russian taxes have been raised to find more funding for the war in Ukraine, further dampening the country’s future economic prospects.
Putin Addresses the Ukrainian Strikes
In what was a singularly startling admission, President Putin addressed Ukraine’s strike campaign directly, something he has in the past conspicuously avoided. Admitting that there are “problems” due to the strikes, Putin downplayed the significance of the strikes.
“As for strikes against critical infrastructure in general, and energy infrastructure in particular, of course, these attacks on our infrastructure facilities create problems, that’s obvious,” Putin said, speaking to a Russian outlet. “Right now we’re observing a certain shortage, but it’s not critical.”
Ukrainian Strikes and Russian Air Defenses
Although the Russian state is nowhere near collapse, and its forces are still firmly entrenched in occupied parts of Ukraine, a serious Russian air defense squeeze appears to be on the horizon. CBS News reported that Ukraine’s strikes on Russia proper have forced the expenditure of air defense missiles by Russia’s S-300 air defense batteries.
Though that Soviet-era air defense system has been eclipsed by newer, more capable Russian air defenses, the S-300 is an integral part of Russia’s air defense umbrella.
A shortage of interceptors could create gaps in Russia’s air defenses and leave critical energy and military sites exposed.
Putin admitted as much over the weekend, saying that “the first task is to quickly and significantly ramp up production of those air defense systems that are most needed” — a tacit admission of the effectiveness of Ukraine’s strike campaign.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines in the Donbas and writing about its civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
