Turkey Keeps Dreaming About the F-35 Fighter

The Republic of Turkey is one of NATO’s most important members in terms of force projection of military capabilities and geographic advantage. Since Ankara’s ascension into the organization in 1952, the Turkish nation has helped tilt the balance against Moscow and has been supplemented by critical Western military support.

Against the backdrop of the Syrian Civil War, Turkey, and America have gone through a split in relations over various disputes, which led to the former purchasing the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system.

The purchase of the S-400 is backfiring on Turkey, as the country was excluded from the vaunted F-35 program. Due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the missile defense system has been exposed due to numerous strikes.

Ankara is slowly realizing its gambit failed and now has second thoughts about the S-400. It wants to continue expanding its Air Force, but its road to the F-35 continues to be an impassable mountain.

Turkey’s S-400 Purchase

America and Turkey initially had close relations since the latter joined NATO in 1952. Under the Kissinger Doctrine, the US quietly backed the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974. However, in the 2010s, with the rise of Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP party, relations have simmered—particularly in the cooperative defense sphere.

In 2009, the Turkish government entered talks with Washington over a Patriot missile system purchase. Still, the negotiations stalled due to various factors, such as growing authoritarianism under Erdogan, numerous violations of Greek airspace, and the rift over Kurdish militant groups in Iraq and Syria.

Initially thinking of purchasing the Chinese FD-2000 or creating its own domestic air defense, Turkey instead decided to purchase the Russian S-400, which caused much ire from NATO partners. The S-400 is considered to be incompatible with Western systems due to the spyware Russian technology holds.

A Growing Rift Between Ankara, Washington, and Brussels

During the negotiation phase with Russia over the S-400, Turkey was asked numerous times by partners to scrap the system due to the inevitable sanctions that would occur. Nevertheless, Turkey persisted and finalized the purchase in the late spring of 2019.

Washington would move to respond to Ankara’s purchase by sanctioning Turkey in December 2020 over the Russian missile system. Relations continued to deteriorate as major protests took place in Turkey slowly, cooperation in Syria continued to fluctuate, and talks over the status of nuclear weapons in Incirlik continued to be a hot topic.

Upon the arrival of the first batch of the S-400 in Turkey in July 2019, America moved to place other potential candidates in the F-35 program, and one such country is Turkey’s greatest rival—Greece.

Including Greece in Lockheed Martin’s F-35 program is a major blow to Turkey’s air prowess over the Aegean Sea, where the latter continues to increase violations of Athens’ airspace and Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ).

Initially, upon both members ascending into NATO, Turkey held the advantage militarily, particularly in the land and air. With NATO using aerial supremacy as the definitive doctrine, Greece has gained the edge, especially as Greek pilots are among the organization’s top-ranked.

Regrets over the S-400?

America’s exclusion of Turkey from the F-35 program over the S-400 purchase and stagnant aerial power put the Turkish government in a corner. Still, Ankara found a loophole to try to salvage its Air Force with the global implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Against the backdrop of Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, both Finland and Sweden set aside their neutrality and applied to NATO for enhanced security purposes. Sweden’s application process was particularly a gift for Turkey, as Ankara used its decades-long dispute with Stockholm to veto its NATO membership until Washington lifted its F-16 embargo.

Ultimately, the Biden administration would lift the F-16 Block 70 upgrades to Turkey, but Ankara would remain out of the F-35 program. Likewise, Russia’s missile defense systems have been overexposed and increasingly vulnerable during their invasion of Ukraine.

During the war, Russia lost numerous S-300 and S-400 batteries and missile complexes. Moscow’s air defense has become stretched thin, which is enabling Kyiv to continue its Russian territory with homegrown drones, as most of Russia’s assets are currently inside of Ukraine.

The S-400 has become so vital to Russia due to losses in Ukraine that India has yet to receive the system in full that New Delhi paid for years ago. With the F-35 being a premier stealth fighter, Turkey may have second thoughts over their recent procurement of the S-400, as recent reports have surfaced.

Turkey’s Potential Path Back to the F-35 Program Could Also Ruin Relations with Greece

Despite receiving their initial contract for upgraded F-16s, the Turkish Republic will most likely vie and continue to push to be back in the F-35 program. Though such a scenario is a long shot, NATO’s command in Brussels could give Ankara options to potentially become a future member of the program.

Washington could convince Ankara to transfer their S-400 system to Kyiv, as Ukraine’s air defenses are also stretched thin for a potential Patriot missile transfer. However, complications will remain with the F-35 program.

After Turkey’s split with the West and its approach to the East, the Hellenic Republic of Greece and the United States have grown their relations diplomatically and militarily in a way not seen since the 1950s. American military access throughout Greece and joint exercises continue to grow bilateral relations.

Washington’s strategy in the Mediterranean includes trying to keep both Athens and Ankara from all-out conflicts, whether it be over the EEZ violations or Cyprus, but a renewal of Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program could push Greece away from warming relations with the US.

Turkey is now taking a more independent approach to its foreign policy and creating a growing defense industry. Nonetheless, Ankara will ultimately have to realize it cannot function independently, as its hasty purchase of the S-400 cost the country the premier F-35 and international standing.

About the Author: Julian McBride

Julian McBride is a forensic anthropologist, SOFREP contributor, and independent journalist born in New York. He reports and documents the plight of people around the world who are affected by conflicts, rogue geopolitics, and war, and also tells the stories of war victims whose voices are never heard. Julian is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO which aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.” McBride is also a Contributing Editor to this publication.