Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive: One Giant Blunder?

Was the Ukrainian Kursk Incursion One Big Mistake?: It was bound to happen. One side would eventually break the stalemate and rush through an opening in the front lines in Ukraine. The Ukrainian army was the first to do so in the Kursk Oblast on August 6. The Ukrainians sent an estimated 1,000 troops with tanks and armored vehicles through a weak point in the Russian lines on the first day of the incursion.

The invasion was an initial success as Russian troops gave up and scattered or became prisoners. By the end of the first week, Ukraine controlled 390 square miles of Russian territory and later ended up with 500 square miles in gains.

But what happens next and can Kyiv keep the momentum going? That seems to be the question the entire world is asking–and the news is not all positive.

Kursk Offensive: Russia Paid the Price at First

Kursk was seen as a considerable triumph done with surprise and confidence. Ukraine finally had their breakthrough, and they were going to make Russia pay in territory, men, and material.

Ukraine could use the land they gained in Kursk (100 settlements, towns, and villages) as a jumping-off point to grab more territory from the Russians.

Hopefully, this would force the Russian army to bring in reinforcements from other parts of the front, weakening their overall defensive position.

Or, at least, that was the idea, according to many experts.

Zelensky Called a Blitz

Even though Ukraine set up an administrative body to hold the territory, the incursion had bogged down by the end of the month due to Russian conscripts making a stand to blunt the Ukrainian offensive.

Vladimir Putin had stopped the bleeding and did a curious thing. He ignored the Ukrainian gains and took advantage of the situation. To conduct the offensive in Kursk, Ukraine had used troops and armor from the Donetsk city of Pokrovsk. Much like a blitz in football, it creates an opportunity to focus an offensive play on the part of the field where the attacking player left open, the Russians pounced in Pokrovsk.

Key City Pokrovsk In Danger

Pokrovsk has an important road network and rail hub that Ukraine uses to move troops, ammunition, and other supplies in that part of the front. By August 4, Russia’s counter-attack placed pressure on that city. Meanwhile, the Russian army was striking back in Kursk and had regained territory east of Korenevo by September 2. They also built on gains in Donetsk to make Ukraine pay for their gambit in Kursk. According to the Institute for the Study of War, “Russian forces recently advanced in the Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk directions and southwest of Donetsk City.”

Now, the shoe is on the other foot. Ukraine is playing defense, and Russia is counter-attacking and making gains in Donetsk, while Putin’s forces are also on the comeback trail in Kursk.

Did Ukraine Make a Strategic Mistake?

This has raised criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He called a blitz, and the Russians reacted well. Should Ukraine have conducted the incursion of Kursk in the first place?

Zelensky was desperate for a win, and he achieved that. The Ukrainians should be credited for mass, initiative, and surprise, but they overplayed their hand. Russia was quick to recognize the weakness and acted accordingly in Donetsk.

Now the situation is tenuous in Pokrovsk. The Russians have seized the initiative and are advancing in both Kursk and Donetsk. Ukraine may have gained tactically in Kursk, although it appears that the incursion will turn out to be a strategic mistake if Russia wins Pokrovsk completely. But Kyiv needed some type of good news from the front and hitting Russia and taking territory was one way that Zelensky could show the world that Ukraine could punch a hole and punish the Russians inside their homeland. Putin decided to “deal with Ukraine later,” as the Center for European Policy Analysis described the situation.

Zelensky Did the Necessary Attack in Ukraine

It is still too early to determine whether the Kursk Ukrainian gambit was a masterstroke or a mistake. I side with Zelensky on the Kursk operation. Ukraine had to do it. It was a means to show that the friendly forces could break the stalemate. Ukrainian generals put together a solid plan and executed it well. Yes, they used troops that were on the frontlines in Donetsk, allowing Russia to strike back there, but Ukraine needed a tactical victory. Russia should be given credit, too, for eventually reacting strongly to the incursion and sending green troops into the void to stop the bleeding while counter-attacking in Donetsk.

Historians will likely point toward the Kursk incursion as a critical point of the war if Russia continues to counterattack successfully. Ukraine could be seen as becoming over-extended in Kursk and making a strategic mistake, or the Kursk incursion would be considered a critical win by Zelensky that gave a psychological boost to Ukrainian forces that had made no real gains during previous offensives. Ukraine has achieved a valuable buffer zone in Russia that could help give them a stronger position in future negotiations. National Security Journal will continue to update you on the war’s progress, and we will determine if the Kursk incursion will be deemed an ultimate success or failure.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.