On Sunday night, the Russians launched another large mass missile/drone attack against Kyiv, targeting military industrial sites and energy infrastructure.
At least 15 civilians were killed by the strikes, with many more wounded in the capital and in the surrounding regions. After the attack had finished, the Ukrainian Air Force stated that the country is currently facing a “serious shortage” of interceptor missiles, which hinders its ability to intercept Russia’s ballistic missiles.
Iskander-M. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
After years of fighting and a few months of war in Iran, Missile defense stocks in both Ukraine and the United States have been depleted.
Despite attempts to ramp up production on Patriot interceptors, resupplying the stocks of both countries will take many months, if not years.
Another Missile Attack Against Kyiv
To defend against large ballistic missiles, like Iskandrs and Khinzal hypersonic missiles, Ukraine relies on the Patriot air defense system, which uses the PAC-3 interceptor missile. For defense against drones and cruise missiles, Kyiv utilizes a mixture of gun placements, AD systems like NASAMS, and its air force, now comprised of Mirage-2000s and F-16s.
Against drones and cruise missiles, Ukraine’s air defense is (allegedly) quite effective.
The Air Force reported last night that of the 351 attack drones launched by Russia, 326 had been intercepted, and of the 68 missiles launched, 37 had been intercepted, mostly cruise missiles. As always, official figures should be taken with a grain of salt.
In the aftermath of the attacks, President Zelensky again petitioned his Western allies to help resupply Ukraine’s depleted stock of interceptors.
He urged Western leaders to make “strong decisions” and rearm Ukraine with more Patriot interceptors. “As long as Patriot missiles remain in our allies’ stockpiles, Russia is only encouraged to keep ‘vanquishing’ residential buildings.
German soldiers assigned to Surface Air and Missile Defense Wing 1 fire the Patriot weapons system at the NATO Missile Firing Installation (NAMFI) during Artemis Strike Nov. 7 in Chania, Greece. Artemis Strike is a German-led multinational air defense exercise. German soldiers Over 200 U.S. soldiers and approximately 650 German airmen will be participating in the realistic training within a combined construct, exercise the rigors associated with force projection and educate operators on their air missile defense systems. (Photo By Officer Candidate Sebastian Apel, Air Defence Missile Group 24)
The United States and Europe have enough strength to stop this terror,” Zelensky said in a statement. The Ukrainian leader is set to take part in this week’s NATO summit, which is scheduled for July 7-8.
The Struggle to Defend Kyiv’s Skies
When the war began in 2022, Ukraine relied primarily on the Soviet-era S-300 for its air defenses. However, due to their age and relatively poor upkeep, these legacy systems did not perform well in the first year of the war.
Interestingly, one of the targets of last night’s strike was the Zhuliany machine-building plant, which produces the S-300 and Neptune missiles.
The first Patriot launchers were handed over to Kyiv in 2023, significantly bolstering the country’s air defenses.
As stated earlier, Ukraine’s air defenses are distributed across multiple systems, but the Patriot is primarily responsible for defending against ballistic missiles.
Over the past weeks, Ukraine’s defense against ballistic missiles has significantly deteriorated. According to OSINT analysis, in last week’s missile attack, only six of 24 ballistic missiles were intercepted, and none were intercepted from last night’s attack, likely due to interceptor shortages.
Prior to the current shortage, Ukraine’s air defenses were stocked by a coalition of NATO countries that donated missiles from their own stockpiles to help supply Kyiv.
Among these was Poland, which secretly transferred some of its Patriot missiles and gave up its place in the U.S. missile production queue in favor of Ukraine, causing a political uproar in Warsaw.
Not Enough Interceptors to Go Around
The unfortunate reality is that Kyiv will have to wait for its interceptor missiles. The primary manufacturer of PAC-3 missiles is the United States, which currently produces around 500-650 missiles per year.
While 600 missiles per year may sound like a lot, it is important to remember that there are 18 operators of the Patriot system worldwide, each with its own orders for the valuable interceptor missiles.
The global demand for PAC-3s is also further exacerbated by the war with Iran, which has expended interceptor missile stocks for both the United States and its regional partners.
According to some reports, the U.S. and its allies expended thousands of PAC-3 interceptors during March. Refilling these stocks has been the most important priority for Lockheed Martin, the primary manufacturer of the PAC-3.
Currently, the U.S. has been trying to ramp up production of Patriot interceptor missiles. In 2026, Lockheed signed an agreement with the U.S. to ramp up production to around 2,000 missiles per year by 2030.
This could, in theory, provide enough missiles to refuel the U.S. while also providing for Ukraine’s defense.
In practice, however, the demand for PAC-3 interceptors worldwide is increasing. With a war with China on the horizon, both Japan and South Korea have been looking to increase their inventory of interceptors.
Europe, meanwhile, has been wringing its hands at the prospect of a broader war with Russia and has been trying to replace the stocks it gave to Ukraine.
Unfortunately, Ukraine will have to wait in a long line for its valuable interceptors. Meanwhile, Moscow has been ramping up the frequency and intensity of its strikes against Kyiv.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
