The Ukraine War Means All Future Wars Will Be Drone Wars

Key Points – The war in Ukraine demonstrates that drones have fundamentally transformed modern warfare. Various types—reconnaissance, missile-armed UAVs, swarming loitering munitions, and cheap, easily operated First-Person View (FPV) drones—now dominate the battlefield, neutralizing massed armored assaults and making tanks highly vulnerable.

-These systems are cost-effective force multipliers, enabling continuous, deep strikes and creating a new form of operational art.

-While not strategic nuclear assets, drones change the calculus of victory and necessitate a shift in military doctrine, including the development of effective counter-drone technologies, as seen in the US military’s rethinking of armored warfare.

The Ukraine War and Drone War

In 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine, I wrote a book about the future of warfare. One of the most popular chapters was the section on unmanned aircraft. I predicted that drones would transform warfare, and so far, that strategic foresight has come true in Ukraine and Russia. All types of drones have been introduced during this conflict and have dominated the fight.

Reconnaissance drones have sniffed out any hope of making an armored advance led by tanks and armored personnel carriers. Larger uncrewed craft have been equipped with laser-guided anti-tank missiles. Then there are the first-person view (FPV) drones that can kill as few as one soldier at a time. Loitering drones take over in swarms and destroy tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in significant numbers.

What Can Be Done to Protect Tanks?

Ukraine and Russia have tried to protect themselves but to no avail. Tanks have been especially vulnerable, and both sides have attempted to up-armor vehicles with “cope cages” for better survivability. Massive spearheads can no longer be formed to pierce through front lines with infantry streaming into gaps. Recon drones spot the armored columns when assembled, and the swarming drones take over.

Changing the Fight With Ease

Unmanned aerial systems are cheap, easy to produce, and simple to fly. Drones are force multipliers. Young Ukrainian and Russian fighters who have undeveloped skills in remotely piloted flight take quickly to FPVs and soon control them expertly. Fiber optic drones are even more deadly and difficult to thwart. They resist traditional jamming and electronic countermeasures and can fly in areas other drones cannot.

Examine the latest development. On May 18, Russia launched its largest drone attack of the war. The invaders targeted several locations deep into Ukraine, even targeting Kyiv. The Ukrainian Air Force said that Russia launched 273 attack drones at the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions in the east and the vicinity of Kyiv. One woman perished in the remotely piloted vehicle strike. Ukraine countered the attack by destroying 88 of the craft while the rest mostly veered off their attack vectors.

What Are FPV Drones?

Meanwhile, drones have been valuable in up-close trench warfare. Reuters has described a drone war dominated by FPVs. “The tiny, inexpensive FPV (first-person view) drone has proved to be one of the most potent weapons in this war, where conventional warplanes are relatively rare because of a dense concentration of anti-aircraft systems near front lines. FPVs – originally designed for civilian racers – are controlled by pilots on the ground and often crashed into targets, laden with explosives.”

A warhead on an FPV can be up to six pounds of high explosives, and the whole contraption can be purchased for as little as $500 a unit. These are easy to assemble and arrive at the front almost daily. A six-pound warhead is enough to pierce through the top of a tank’s turret, where armor is weakest. FPVs can also be anti-personnel weapons. Atrocious videos show how both sides guide drones to chase and kill a single soldier. The infantry fighter may hear and see the drone, but there is no escape. It is simply better to lay in a trench and hide under bunkers.

Eyes in the Sky

Recon drones have a major role. They sniff out movement and keep armored forces from massing for the attack, another reason tanks are ineffective in Ukraine and Russia.

Unmanned craft is the essence of asymmetric warfare that can punish the enemy and break their will to fight. This also gives users an immediate feedback loop. It is unlike an artillery strike, where the gunners are not quite sure about the damage they cause. Drones have cameras and video transmitters, and their operators are given immediate news of a successful or unsuccessful strike. This is perfect for placing on social media and broadcasting how deadly the contraptions can be to the world. It’s a morale builder in a stalemated war of attrition that often has no good news to broadcast. War becomes a public relations effort that airs the battles in real-time.

Transforming the Fight at the Operational Level

We know that drones are tactically sound and have changed warfare, but they are also creating a high level of operational art. Large attacks by drones deep in enemy territory have become a regular occurrence.

While no one attack can make an end state and be decisive, drones have lengthened the duration of warfare. Why should one side sue for peace when they can keep fighting with unmanned vehicles? Warfare can be conducted 24/7 without the need for crewed airplanes. There does not need to be a huge defense industrial base to make bombers, fighter jets, and ships. Simple FPV drones are cheap and straightforward to produce without requiring a massive group of workers and large factories.

Drones may not be strategic – they do not carry nuclear weapons after all – but they create a new form of fear and change the calculus of what victory looks like. Can one side even win when both armies use drones to such a great extent? The fighting could go on forever as long as drones can be produced this easily and cheaply. There is no need for a cease-fire when these craft can be launched at will.

The United States is rethinking the way it sees armored warfare. In future American battles, tanks will remain in the rear and act more like mobile artillery. Counter-drone systems must be created to accompany armored vehicles now. Drone swarms are especially dangerous in the mechanized fight. And we know that recon craft can spot any movement from tanks and armored personnel carriers. The U.S. Marine Corps even gave up its tanks, knowing that future battles would render them almost useless.

Drones are here to stay. They are tactically and operationally sound. Unmanned craft are cheap and easy to produce. They have an anti-personnel option that is scary. Tanks are no match for them. There is a public relations quality since their exploits enable videos to be displayed on social media. Warfare no longer requires such a large defense industrial base. The next step of conflict will be to determine which side can produce the best counter-drone technologies.

This will determine who can sustain the future fight without succumbing to the uncrewed death from above. The war between Ukraine and Russia will be known as the turning point when warfare was taken over by remotely piloted craft.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

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