Russians Want the War to End, But Putin Is Doubling Down: As Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign moves from one success to another, inflicting major damage on the Russian military and economy, it is becoming abundantly clear that it’s not enough to force President Vladimir Putin to back down. A Wall Street Journal analysis published this weekend concluded that Ukraine now holds more leverage than at any point since Russia’s full-scale invasion, pointing to strikes on oil refineries and logistics hubs, but notes that all that damage still isn’t enough to bring Putin to the negotiating table. And it’s still not enough to make the Russian president back down on even his most maximalist demands.
Analysts are starting to notice, and the same point was made in another piece published by The Times. Mark Galeotti noted that with the pressure now becoming increasingly visible in Russia, Putin is likely to continue escalating until the conflict reaches its peak. “Brace for a violent summer in Ukraine,” Galeotti notes.
Putin at November 2023 Science Fair Russian Government Photo
Earlier this week, Reuters cited three sources close to the Kremlin who admitted that the Russian president has rejected calls to negotiate with Kyiv and, instead of working with the U.S. and Kyiv to bring about a negotiated end to the conflict – a deal that may still make some concessions to Russia – Putin insists he will fight back even harder.
According to one of the sources, who spoke to Reuters under the condition of anonymity, there is a “high probability” of further escalation in the coming months. Another source said that Putin has “dug in his heels” over capturing the remainder of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, and that he won’t stop until he achieves his goal of taking the territory completely.
Russia Steps Up Ballistic Missile Campaign
We’re already seeing signs of Putin “digging in his heels.”
Overnight into Saturday, July 11, Russian forces launched yet another nationwide barrage of drones and missiles against Ukrainian cities, specifically targeting Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia fired 12 missiles and 121 drones during the assault, with Ukraine’s Air Force reporting intercepting 111 drones and just two of those ballistic missiles. It means that the majority of Russia’s ballistic missiles once again reached most of their targets. It’s a problem Zelenskyy has warned NATO allies about, and one that is being addressed right now with expedited Patriot interceptor deliveries.
But until those interceptors arrive, Putin is taking full advantage of Ukraine’s air defense vulnerabilities and bombing its cities into submission.
The southern port city of Odesa was particularly impacted by the strikes, too, with local authorities confirming that two civilians were killed and another wounded as a result of the strikes. In Kyiv, residential buildings were hit, and emergency workers worked through the night to ensure locals were safe.
It’s part of a pattern we’ve seen unfold in the last several weeks, with Russia leaning more heavily on its ballistic missiles. Until Ukraine can secure the interceptors it needs – in hand, and not just in pledges – then we’re likely to see this escalate in the near term.
The Kremlin Prepares A New Advance
Not only is the Kremlin rejecting compromise, even as it faces massive economic damage from Ukraine’s long-range strikes, it is also seeking to make further advances. Putin is not only insisting on continuing the fight but also remains committed to providing frontline soldiers with the supplies they need to keep making advances through the Donbas. This week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia is “ready for a peaceful resolution” but insisted that it “has enough capability to act independently and continue the special military operation.”
Russian President Putin in 2024 Russian Federation Photo
Ukraine also believes that Russia could be preparing for new offensives – this time, from the north. Reports have revealed that Kyiv’s intelligence agencies believe Moscow is looking to establish a “security zone” along Ukraine’s northern border following Ukraine’s attacks on Russian territory. The news comes after Ukraine successfully destroyed much of the bridge and transport infrastructure in the occupied southern region of Crimea, along with the region’s energy and oil infrastructure. The damage has forced Russian forces to reallocate resources and put pressure on troops on the front line who depended on resupply routes from the south.
Putin vs. the Public
Russian public opinion seems to be shifting, while Putin doubles down on his war. Independent polling from the Levada Center has consistently shown that around two-thirds of Russians now support peace negotiations rather than fighting – the highest level recorded since the invasion began.
At the same time, reports have revealed that Russians conducted more than 137,000 searches for “when will the special military operation end?” on the Yandex search engine during the week of June 22-28. It’s the most interest Russians have shown since February 2022 – and yet, while Russians are looking for the war to end, Putin is preparing to expand it.
If Russia cannot achieve its military objectives before Ukraine receives additional Patriot interceptors and begins producing them domestically at scale, Moscow could face an even more costly campaign – and a bigger domestic economic crisis – as Ukraine’s improved air defenses allow it to sustain its long-range campaign for even longer.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
