Key Points and Summary – The United Kingdom and Australia have solidified their AUKUS partnership by signing the 50-year Geelong Treaty for nuclear submarine cooperation.
-However, the landmark pact faces a critical hurdle, as serious doubts emerge about the United States’ ability to fulfill its promise of supplying Australia with Virginia-class submarines.
-The U.S. shipbuilding industry is plagued by capacity issues and workforce shortages.
-Compounding the problem, the Trump administration has launched a review of the entire deal, led by a skeptical defense official, to determine if the U.S. can afford to build submarines for an ally.
AUKUS Submarine Doubts Have Arrived
The United Kingdom and Australia have solidified their AUKUS partnership by signing the 50-year Geelong Treaty for nuclear submarine cooperation.
However, the landmark pact faces a critical hurdle, as serious doubts emerge about the United States’ ability to fulfill its promise of supplying Australia with Virginia-class submarines.
The U.S. shipbuilding industry is plagued by capacity issues and workforce shortages.
Compounding the problem, the Trump administration has launched a review of the entire deal, led by a skeptical defense official, to determine if the U.S. can afford to build submarines for an ally.
UK Signs 50-Year Nuclear Sub Pact With Australia – But Was It Too Soon?
In July, 2025, the British and Australian governments signed a treaty that committed the two countries to a 50-year nuclear submarine partnership. The Geelong Treaty was signed following a meeting in Geelong, Victoria, between Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles and British Defence Secretary John Healey.
In a statement, the Australian government said that the treaty – which builds on the AUKUS pact agreed by the U.S., U.K., and Australia in 2021 – will “enable comprehensive cooperation on the design, build, operation, sustainment, and disposal of our SSN-AUKUS submarines.”
The British government says that the treaty could be worth as much as 20 billion GDP (roughly 27 billion USD) over the next 25 years. And while the AUKUS agreement is set to be reviewed by U.S. President Donald Trump later this year, Australia remains confident that the pact will remain intact – in large part thanks to the 368 billion AUD commitment over three decades from Australia that includes billions of dollars of investment in American manufacturing and design.
What to Expect From AUKUS
The AUKUS trilateral security partnership secures a new partnership between the three countries to achieve two primary goals, known as “pillars.” Pillar 1 refers to Australia’s plans to acquire at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines from the United States.
Pillar 2, meanwhile, focuses on the development of advanced technologies that will benefit the naval forces of all three countries – ranging from undersea capabilities and quantum technology to autonomy, artificial intelligence, and hypersonic capabilities.
Australia expects the first delivery of a new nuclear-powered submarine to come as soon as 2032 – and in the meantime, the U.S. and U.K. are assisting Australia in the design and construction of as many as five additional attack submarines.
Can the U.S. Deliver?
While the signing of the Geelong Treaty suggests Australia and the United Kingdom remain confident that the program will come together as planned, there has been some concern that the United States may not be able to fulfill its end of the deal.
The anticipated review of the program by the Trump administration was announced in July as part of a broader effort to strengthen the U.S. military and better allocate resources to ensure that the U.S. can more rapidly field assets deemed to be the most strategically important.
Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, will lead the review – and his own skepticism suggests that the deal could either come undone, or be restructured to reflect the realities of the United States’ manufacturing capacity.
During his confirmation hearing in March, Colby said that while he hopes the United States can produce the attack submarines “in sufficient number” and at “sufficient speed,” there would be a “very difficult problem” if it proves to be impossible.
“This is getting back to restoring our defense industrial capacity so that we don’t have to face these awful choices but rather can be in a position where we can produce not only for ourselves, but for our allies,” he also said.
His comments came in the same month that a report from the Congressional Research Service suggested that the U.S. simply does not have the shipbuilding capacities to deliver – and that the problem will be exacerbated by a workforce shortage and supply chain problems.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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