Key Points and Summary – The AUKUS submarine deal is facing a critical challenge after a top U.S. Navy Admiral warned that America cannot spare any Virginia-class submarines for Australia.
-Last month, Admiral Daryl Caudle, nominee for Chief of Naval Operations, stated that U.S. shipyards must double their current output before any transfers are possible, citing America’s own fleet shortage.
-The admission has sparked alarm in Australia, with former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull warning of a major capability gap.
-Despite Canberra’s public confidence, the “brutal truth” from the Pentagon casts serious doubt on the future of the landmark security pact.
US Admiral: Australia Might Not Get Promised AUKUS Submarines
Australia’s ambitious plan to field nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS security pact is in fresh doubt after a senior US naval officer bluntly admitted that the United States cannot currently spare the vessels.
Caudle: US Must Double Output
Admiral Daryl Caudle, the Trump administration’s nominee to serve as the next Chief of Naval Operations, told a Senate hearing that American shipyards would need to double their output before any of the promised Virginia-class submarines could be transferred to Australia.
The US Navy is already behind in nuclear attack submarine production, producing just over one submarine per year when at least two are needed to meet domestic defence needs.
‘No Magic Beans’ on AUKUS
“There are no magic beans to this,” Caudle cautioned, adding that nothing short of a “100% improvement” in productivity would work.
He praised the Australian navy as “incredible submariners” but stressed that mere goodwill could not override the issue of production bottlenecks and legislative restrictions that forbid weakening US naval strength.
The AUKUS pact, signed in 2021 by Australia, the UK, and the US, was intended to provide Canberra with three to five Virginia-class boats from 2032, before transitioning to an entirely new design built in Britain and eventually in Australia itself.
The cost has been forecast at AU$368bn over three decades.
Yet America’s submarine programme, plagued by labour shortages, industrial inefficiency, and rising costs, shows little sign of the massive reform required.
Even billions in extra congressional funding have failed to lift output.
Ex-Aussie PM Slams Uncertainty
The Guardian reports that ex-Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has seized on Caudle’s remarks, describing the chance of Virginia-class submarines ever arriving in Australian service as “very, very high”.
He warned that with the Collins-class fleet ageing and the British-Australian project years away from completion, the country risks a decade or more without an effective submarine capability. “Why is there no plan B?” Turnbull asked. “Our parliament has the most at stake but is the least informed.”
Canberra insists it remains confident. Defence Minister Richard Marles pointed to the AU$1.6bn already paid into US shipbuilding and the 120 Australian workers embedded in American yards. “We are really confident that the production rates will be raised in America,” he said.
But confidence may not be enough.
Commitments in the Pacific and Europe already stretch the United States, and its defence industrial base has proven stubbornly resistant to rapid expansion.
Australia may have to grapple with the uncomfortable truth that the plans it has staked a generation of security planning on may not ultimately be deliverable.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education. You can follow her on X: @llggeorgia.
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