PUBLISHED On August 15, 2025, 9:10 PM EDT – Key Points and Summary: The landmark AUKUS security pact, which includes the sale of U.S. Virginia-class submarines to Australia, is now under review by the Pentagon, raising concerns about the deal’s future.
-The review, led by a top defense official who has previously cited the scarcity of U.S. submarines, is creating uncertainty.
SSN-AUKUS. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Despite a new bilateral agreement between the UK and Australia to advance the submarine program and strong bipartisan support from Congress to preserve the deal, the Pentagon’s reevaluation has put the crucial Indo-Pacific security initiative in a precarious position.
AUKUS Submarine Deal Dying?
Back in 2021, during the Biden administration, the United States, Great Britain, and Australia agreed to form AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership. The agreement entered force in 2022.
Per a Pentagon fact sheet, the purpose of the agreement was to “strengthen the ability of each government to support security and defense interests, building on longstanding and ongoing bilateral ties. It will promote deeper information sharing and technology sharing; and foster deeper integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases, and supply chains.”
And a big part of the deal was security delivered via submarines.
“The first initiative under AUKUS is a commitment to support Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy,” the fact sheet explains. “The second initiative intends to enhance joint capabilities and interoperability, focusing on cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and additional undersea capabilities.”
Then in 2023, the three nations announced an “optimal pathway to produce a nuclear-powered submarine capability in Australia at the earliest point.”
The deal is constructed as a way to counter the influence of China in the Indo-Pacific. It will involve the U.S. selling three to five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, with the first scheduled as soon as 2032, per the Associated Press.
The Deal in Trouble?
However, in June, Reuters reported the Pentagon announced it was planning a review of AUKUS, with Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby leading the process. The review is expected to continue until the fall. According to Reuters, Colby has stated in the past that submarines are scarce, and that the U.S. is not able to produce enough to meet its own demand.
“If we can produce the attack submarines in sufficient number and sufficient speed, then great. But if we can’t, that becomes a very difficult problem,” Colby said in his March confirmation hearing, as reported by the AP. “This is getting back to restoring our defense industrial capacity so that we don’t have to face these awful choices but rather can be in a position where we can produce not only for ourselves, but for our allies.”
In late July, Australia and the United Kingdom reached a bilateral agreement structured to build on AUKUS—it is known as the Geelong Treaty.
“The Geelong Treaty will enable comprehensive cooperation on the design, build, operation, sustainment, and disposal of our SSN-AUKUS submarines,” the statement from the two defense ministers said.
The U.S. has also pushed Australia to spend more on defense, echoing earlier pressure from the Trump administration on NATO allies to take similar steps.
“We’ll determine our defence policy, we’ve invested, just across [the next four years], an additional $10bn in defence,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in May, before the announcement of the review, per The Guardian. “What we’ll do is continue to invest in our capability, but also our relationships in the region.”
Saving the Deal
According to the Associated Press, the administration is being pushed by both parties to preserve the AUKUS deal.
“AUKUS is essential to strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and advancing the undersea capabilities that will be central to ensuring peace and stability,” Rep. John Moolenaar (R-MI) and Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-MI), wrote on July 22 in a letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The two members of Congress are the chairman and ranking member, respectively, of the House panel on China.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told the AP that support for the deal is strong from both parties among senators on the committee.
“There is a little bit of mystification about the analysis done at the Pentagon,” Kaine told the AP. “Maybe (what) the analysis will say is: We believe this is a good thing.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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