Can Kamala Harris Win the War in Ukraine?

Kamla Harris Will Likely Remain Hawkish on War in Ukraine: Vice President Kamala Harris is oh-so-close to the White House. The election is obviously tight, but she just needs a few states to fall in her favor to take the presidency.

So far, Harris has been tight-lipped about what her international security strategy and foreign policy will be as the new commander in chief. She has indicated that a nuclear-equipped and terrorist-sponsoring Iran is her number one concern. Harris has criticized former President Trump for “cozying up” to dictators indicating that she would not do the same with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. But that is about it on specifics for defense policy and strategy.

The U.S. Checkbook Stays Open for Ukraine

We can assume that Harris, like the rest of the Democrat party, supports an open-ended policy of support for Ukraine. President Joe Biden is hurriedly sending more military assistance to Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces to a tune of a few hundred million dollars each month. Harris does not seem to mind.

She Doesn’t Have That Much Foreign Policy Experience

Of course, a vice president has limited means to change foreign policy that comes out of the White House. The VP has only a national security adviser and a small staff in the defense realm. They are not a policy making body and are only there to keep her abreast of new developments and recurring problems.

What Is the President’s Daily Brief?

If elected, Harris will likely sit for a full “President’s Daily Brief” before inauguration that commanders-in-chiefs get every morning from the ODNI (Office of the Director on National Intelligence). Different presidents have utilized various means for receiving this information. President George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush loved an oral brief chock full of details. President Obama liked to read it on an IPad, and President Trump disliked in-the-weeds details with as few PowerPoint slides as possible.

Harris will likely take her briefs the traditional oral way at first and then tailor them to her liking while in the White House should she win. Harris will probably be surprised about what the intelligence briefers tell her on Ukraine should they be candid and truthful.

A U.S. Army driver assigned to Alpha Company, 1st Battalion, 67th Armor Regiment, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division standbys in the drivers hull of an M1A2 SEPv2 Abrams waiting for further guidance prior to the start of Table VI Tank Gunnery at McGregor Range, New Mexico, Sept. 29, 2023. Gunnery Table VI evaluates crews on engaging stationary and moving targets while utilizing all weapons systems in offensive and defensive positions, ensuring our crews are trained and ready for any mission. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. David Poleski)

The Ukraine War Is a Loser

If they are honest, the briefers will emphasize that this war is awful and unwinnable. It’s a stalemate with no end in sight. The United States and its allies have no clear strategy for what “victory” is and what winning entails.

Difficult Questions for Kamala Harris

Will Kamala Harris support Zelensky’s victory plan of allowing long-range strikes into Russia with American weapons? Will she pursue the strategy of evicting all Russians out of Ukraine to include ejection from Crimea? Does she want the Russians to pay reparations and haul Putin and his cronies in front of a war crimes tribunal?

Zelensky Wants More Handouts

What about weapons systems? Zelensky is never satisfied with the level of U.S. aid. Every time he gets a major end item – like the F-16, HIMARS, Abrams tank, Bradley Fighting Vehicle, and Stryker armored personnel carrier – he wants something else. Now it’s land-fired Tomahawk cruise missiles. He wants the jewels of the crown at all times. The man is never satisfied, and I find him unappreciative of U.S. generosity. Perhaps Harris will too.

A soldier from the Idaho Army National Guard, Charlie Company, 2-116th Combined Arms Battalion, 116th Cavalry Brigade Combat Team makes Idaho National Guard history with the first firing of a Javelin anti-tank missile.
In a historic moment of training for the Idaho Army National Guard, soldiers from Charlie Company, 2-116th Combined Arms Battalion, 116th Cavalry Brigade Combat Team, fired the FGM – Javelin portable anti-tank missile on Sunday while conducting a series of field training exercises scheduled for the week on the Orchard Combat Training Center ranges.

Keep the Status Quo om Ukraine

I see no changes in store for Ukraine policy for Democrats. Republicans, on the other hand, are getting restless and not ready for an open-ended blank check for Ukraine. Some want the money spent on Ukraine to be transferred over to border security. Donald Trump favors this approach. Harris will never do that. Vice presidential candidate JD Vance is dovish on Ukraine and wants it to remain a European problem. He has articulated an America First ideology which means cutting Ukraine off from further aid and letting NATO deal with military assistance.

Vance has also agreed with some aspects of my peace plan on Ukraine and that is to create a Korea-like armistice and demilitarized zone to maintain a perpetual cease fire. Both sides would back up 10 to 20 miles. Russia would keep territory in the Donbas that it occupies, and Ukraine would maintain its presence in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The DMZ would be administered by the United Nations.

There is no way Harris would agree to this. If she wins, this idea is dead. It won’t stop me from advocating for it, but the Democrats would want no part of a DMZ as Zelensky would likely throw a fit and whine to Harris about giving up territory.

So, expect more of the same during a Harris presidency. That probably means Zelensky will get additional F-16s and Tomahawks. It is interesting the Democrats have mostly become the party of war and the Republicans somewhat the party of peace in Ukraine. However, certain realignments have happened in foreign policy ideologies over the years. Harris could end up being hawkish on Ukraine, Russia, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, and North Korea. The San Francisco progressive could find herself devising a foreign policy in which she has an iron fist. That would be an interesting development and sure to disappoint doves and peaceniks.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.