Key Points – A recent Chinese study by defense experts, including PLA Air Force Early Warning Academy researcher Wang Bingqie, surprisingly identifies the 70-year-old US B-52H Stratofortress as the primary threat to China in a potential nuclear exchange.
-This assessment prioritizes the B-52H over stealth bombers like the B-2 or upcoming B-21, due to its large payload capacity, long range, and ability to launch standoff nuclear cruise missiles and advanced B61-12 nuclear bombs from outside Chinese air defenses.
-The study suggests China needs to improve its long-range air defenses, satellite ISR, and early warning radar to counter this perceived B-52 threat.
New Study Suggests that China Is Most Afraid of the B-52 in a Nuclear Exchange
American military observers spend significant time fearing China with its new military hardware. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. A group of Chinese defense experts wrote a report in a Chinese publication revealing that they consider the B-52H the biggest threat to the country if a nuclear exchange occurred. The findings are somewhat surprising considering the high level of effectiveness of the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber and the features of the new B-21 Raider.
Researchers are most concerned about the elderly 70-year-old Stratofortress that is nuclear-capable and able to launch stand-off cruise missiles out of the range of Chinese air defenses.
The lead author of the study is Wang Bingqie from the PLA Air Force Early Warning Academy in Wuhan. The piece was published in the Chinese journal Modern Defense Technology.
Simulation Reveals that a B-52 Could Sneak Through Defenses
The writers imagined a scenario and conducted a simulation in which the Americans would use the B-52 to bombard Chinese naval assets and targets on the Mainland with nuclear bombs. They considered that the B-52 would have the means to make the best ground strike and the ability to have the kind of range that would be needed to hit China.
“According to the researchers, its payload capacity, range, and upgraded avionics give it a higher strategic value in a limited nuclear conflict than stealth fighters or bombers,” InterestingEngineering.com wrote.
The B-2 and F-35 could accompany the B-52 in a potential strike, but the airframe that Chinese social scientists are most concerned about is the Stratofortress.
B61-12 Nuclear Bomb Has the Scientists Worried Too
China should be most worried about the upgraded B61-12 nuclear bomb that could freeze a ground war in place with an explosion equivalent to 300 tons of TNT. Using the B61-12 could foil Chinese attempts at executing its anti-access/ area denial gambit that underpins the country’s grand strategy against the United States and allies in the region.
The writers believe these weapons can create “shockwaves, radiation, and long-lasting radioactive contamination.” They are assuming that the B-52 would drop four nuclear bombs on Chinese forces, and that could include targeting military infrastructure and cities.
Air Defenses Must Be Improved
The authors wrote that to thwart a B-52 attack, China should improve its long-range air defense systems, conduct more satellite intelligence gathering, and fashion new radar for early warning.
The scientists are also worried that U.S. lawmakers and policy experts in the Department of Defense are calling for more B-52s to be outfitted with nuclear weapons – as many as 30 bombers could be equipped with the B61-12 bombs.
Can China Figure Out the Nuclear Threat In Time?
China would have difficulty determining where the air strikes would come from as F-35s and B-2s would accompany the B-52s. The authors believe that China must first determine which airplanes are carrying nuclear weapons and which are engaging with conventional weapons.
“China’s focus on the B-52 also reflects its concerns about vulnerabilities in its defense architecture. The People’s Liberation Army has invested heavily in air defense systems like the HQ-9 and Russian-supplied S-400, designed to counter aircraft and missiles. However, the B-52’s ability to deploy long-range cruise missiles complicates these defenses,” according to BulgarianMilitary.com.
The Chinese vowed to destroy early warning airplanes such as the E-3 Sentry AWACS as a vital tactic to reduce the B-52’s military might.
China has maintained that it would conduct no “first use” of nuclear weapons. The country has around 600 nuclear devices and aims to have 1,000 warheads in its stockpile by 2030.
Significantly, they are planning for a nuclear exchange and consider the U.S. Air Force to be fully prepared for war and that the Americans would engage in a first-strike encounter with China.
Will the PLA Listen to the Outside Experts?
It is unclear if this study will become policy for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Numerous Chinese military think tanks and journals often maintain alarming and hawkish views about PLA strategy, operations, and tactics.
However, this gives important insights into what adversaries think about countering the United States. There is all the more reason for the Air Force to complete the B-52 upgrade program for new engines and radars.
The B-21 Raider should also give the Chinese fits. While the authors have discounted the value of the B-1B Lancer, new stealth bombers like the Raider are even more sophisticated than the B-52, aside from a lower payload capacity.
This report shows that the United States is progressing with its nuclear triad and deterrence capabilities. Notice that in the report, the Chinese did not cover U.S. ICBMs and submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missiles that would also deter the Middle Kingdom.
Xi Jinping’s generals will surely read the report and adjust Chinese nuclear tactics and strategy. This is a small win for the United States but more work needs to be done on the B-52 to make it thrive in the coming decades. But it is clear the Chinese fear and respect the huge bomber, and that is music to American ears.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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