Did Russia and Ukraine actually agree to an “energy ceasefire”? On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced via his Truth Social account that “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it,” he wrote.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that he “didn’t know about it. We learned from the media.” Zelenskyy added to the Warsaw Security Forum that “we do support it, but I have not heard approval of this proposal from the Russian side, and this looks strange.”
Putin in August of 2022 Image Credit Russian Federation
Putin Speaking With Leader of Belarus Russian Federation Photo.
And the Russians apparently didn’t get the memo either. They attacked and destroyed a Ukrainian power grid overnight and attacked several others.
By Monday morning, the BBC was reporting blackouts in eastern Ukraine after the Russian strikes on power plants.
According to Ukrinform, Ukraine’s state-run news agency, residents of Izyum lost electricity after a Russian strike destroyed the city’s power grid.
Ukrenergo, the state-owned grid operator, reported new outages in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia and announced rationing to keep already damaged equipment from overloading. Energy and rail infrastructure in Zhytomyr, in western Ukraine, was also hit overnight.
That doesn’t sound like a ceasefire.
The Truce Nobody Signed
Despite President Trump’s announcement, only one leader referenced it. President Zelenskyy said the truce was news to him, then said Ukraine was ready to stop hitting Russian energy targets if Moscow did the same.
Moscow said nothing.
By Sunday evening, Zelenskyy was reporting glide bomb strikes and an attack on a power plant in Kharkiv, which he said was one of more than 200 Russian strikes on Ukraine’s grid in a single week.
However, nobody should be surprised. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has described Ukraine’s energy sector as the country’s “Achilles’ heel.” In August, Russia’s Defense Ministry posted images of attack drones promising Ukrainians a freezing winter. Moscow told us exactly what it planned to do. It’s doing it.
As to Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire, Peskov stated that “contacts are ongoing. When we have anything to say on this topic, we’ll be sure to keep you informed.”
Kyiv got the preview last Thursday.
Russian strikes on a facility feeding the capital forced emergency outages, stopped metro trains, suspended part of the public transport system, and dropped water pressure across four districts on the right bank of the Dnipro.
Russia Ignored Earlier Energy Ceasefires
Last March, Washington brokered a supposed 30-day energy truce.
The Russians violated it more than 30 times.
No one wrote it down, so the two sides couldn’t even agree on the dates, and no one monitored it.
The day the Kremlin declared it expired, Russian strikes knocked out power in Sumy Oblast.
A ceasefire with no written text, no agreed start time, no target list, and no verification is a wish.
And Russia has shown no inclination to cease the targeting of civilians or civilian infrastructure.
The Diesel Deal Is The Trade-Off
President Trump has been pressing Kyiv to stop striking Russian oil infrastructure so Moscow can deliver diesel to the US and global markets under a recent deal.
That arrangement would temporarily ease sanctions on Russian fuel and aim to lower diesel prices at the pump before the midterms.
Zelenskyy, European officials, and some US lawmakers have criticized it.
It is a bad idea. Diesel prices are soaring due to the conflict in Iran.
The president wants to ease sanctions on Russia for diesel fuel, while Russian support for Iran’s conflict with the US goes unabated.
He went further, stating that Zelenskyy should be replaced.
Zelenskyy didn’t attack Russia; it was Putin who invaded Ukraine. If anyone was to be replaced, it should start there. It makes no sense.
Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign against Russian refineries is one of the few levers Kyiv has that costs Moscow real money.
Asking Ukraine to shelve it, while Russian drones keep hitting substations in Kharkiv, asks one side to disarm on trust.
Russia will not abide by a ceasefire, no more than Iran will.
Winter Is The Real Deadline
Heating season is here. Every transformer Russia destroys in October becomes a cold apartment in January, because Ukraine’s lights, water pumps, and heating all run on the same grid.
Ukrenergo is already asking people to cut usage during the evening peak.
If Washington wants an energy truce meant the paper it is written on, it needs both capitals to agree in writing, set a start time, name a target list, and define how violations will be called out.
Until then, Kyiv would be foolish to stand down its refinery strikes on the strength of a social media post.
In Izyum, the lights went out anyway.
The drones never read the post. And Moscow will not abide by one regardless.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
