Key Points and Summary – The deployment of the USS Gerald Ford strike group and some 12,000 U.S. troops near Venezuela has sparked fears of an impending war and regime-change operation against Nicolás Maduro.
-Washington is hitting suspected narco-terrorist boats and designating Maduro’s Cartel de los Soles a terrorist group, yet officials privately insist there are no plans for an invasion.
The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) successfully completes the third and final scheduled explosive event of Full Ship Shock Trials while underway in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 8, 2021. The U.S. Navy conducts shock trials of new ship designs using live explosives to confirm that our warships can continue to meet demanding mission requirements under harsh conditions they might encounter in battle. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Novalee Manzella)
-Accomplished defense writer Steve Balestrieri argues the buildup fits Trump’s “escalate to negotiate” playbook seen with North Korea, NATO, and tariffs: brandish overwhelming force, then leverage it for talks and power-sharing.
-Full-scale war is unlikely; the real endgame is coercive diplomacy and a negotiated Venezuelan transition.
Should The US Really Go To War With Venezuela?
The USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier strike group has been deployed to the region around Venezuela as the US has been carrying out strikes against what Washington has described as narco-terrorist boats carrying illicit drugs heading to the United States.
Since September, US strikes have killed at least 80 people in 20 attacks on small boats accused of transporting drugs in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean.
But many believe that the actual reason behind all of the reported 12,000 American troops in the region is that they are there to put pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The buildup of American military might with the Ford carrier strike group, as well as a growing force of warships, fighter aircraft, bombers, marines, drones, and spy planes in the Caribbean, is the largest deployment there since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
But is the US actually going to war with Venezuela, and if it is, what is the endgame?
Ford’s Carrier Strike Group is Part Of “Operation Southern Spear.”
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has stated that the dozen or so ships in the region are part of what he dubbed “Operation Southern Spear.”
Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), of the House Armed Services Committee, said during a Friday interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press NOW” that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “denied” there are any plans to carry out land strikes inside Venezuela or seek regime change during a recent classified briefing with lawmakers regarding the ongoing boat strikes.
The world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) sails in the Mediterranean Sea, Dec. 31, 2023. The U.S. maintains forward deployed, ready, and postured forces to deter aggression and support security and stability around the world. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jacob Mattingly)
The Trump administration has insisted that Maduro is an illegitimate leader, after he fraudulently rigged his election last fall, and is a narco terrorist leader. The administration said on Sunday that it will designate the Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization and that Maduro is its leader.
There is concern that the US will begin land strikes inside Venezuela, which could lead to a ground invasion to force regime change.
The United States Will Not Invade Venezuela
While the US’s increasingly clear objective is to remove Maduro and his military cronies from power, the US will not invade Venezuela, which is probably the only way Maduro and the military establishment could be forced out.
The American public would not support an invasion, and despite the impressive number of troops in the region, it isn’t enough to facilitate a ground incursion.
And air strikes, even inside Venezuela, wouldn’t be enough to drive Maduro from power. Neither would the $50 million bounty that the US put on Maduro as a narco-terrorist.
President Trump’s Playbook, “Escalate to Negotiate”
Despite the president’s bold war of words on Maduro and the illegitimate regime in Venezuela, Trump has been against large-scale military interventions, especially those involving prolonged deployments and nation-building.
A U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress, assigned to the 2nd Bomb Wing, receives fuel from a KC-135 Stratotanker, assigned to the 340th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron, during a multi-day Bomber Task Force mission over Southwest Asia, Dec. 10, 2020. The B-52 is a long range bomber with a range of approximately 8,800 miles, enabling rapid support of Bomber Task Force missions or deployments and reinforcing global security and stability.(U.S Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Joey Swafford)
President Trump has addressed complex national security questions by employing the strategy outlined in his book, “The Art of the Deal.” And that strategy is to “escalate to negotiate.”
Back in 2018, after North Korea tested ICBMs capable of hitting the United States, Trump threatened it with “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” He then held three summits on denuclearization with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
During his first administration, officials reported that Trump privately expressed a desire to withdraw from the NATO alliance on multiple occasions. However, his administration’s official policy ultimately remained one of pressuring allies to increase spending rather than an outright exit, and he later called leaving the alliance “unnecessary” after some progress was made on spending goals.
Trump threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO if other members did not increase their own levels of military spending. Most did, and so Washington has remained in place, where it was always intended to be.
Just this past spring, Trump raised tariffs on almost every country in the world, only to pause many of the levies to negotiate with states for lower trade barriers.
Trump’s imposed tariffs will raise $2.4 trillion in revenue over the next decade on a conventional basis and reduce US GDP by 0.6 percent, all before foreign retaliation. Accounting for adverse economic effects, the revenue raised by the tariffs falls to $1.8 trillion over the next decade.
The Endgame in Venezuela? Negotiation
What the president is doing here isn’t ramping up for a prolonged and costly invasion; it is setting the table for lengthy negotiations and power sharing.
He said as much on Sunday, when he didn’t offer details other than that ” possible discussions with Maduro, but he said, “Venezuela would like to talk.”
It won’t be easy, nor will it be quick. But this is where things are headed. It isn’t as big a headline as the US conducting air strikes inside Venezuela, but it follows Trump’s strategy in dealing with other crises.
A U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress aircraft flies in a seven-ship formation during the Hyundai Air and Sea Show at Miami Beach, Florida, May 24, 2025. The flyover represented the Air Force’s total force, integrating active duty, guard, and reserve pilots flying the B-1B Lancer, B-2 Spirit, F-22 Raptor, A-10 Thunderbolt II, B-52H Stratofortress, F-16C Fighting Falcon, and F-15C Eagle aircraft. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Bailee A. Darbasie)
However, if Trump can force Maduro into some form of negotiation, it would be another feather in his administration’s cap.
Washington will leverage negotiations with the threat of US military might, while getting international support to help rebuild Venezuela’s shattered economy.
By employing the Teddy Roosevelt “big stick” approach, the possibility of war escalation is always present; however, bringing Maduro and the opposition together offers a way to circumvent a situation that isn’t in the best interests of anyone.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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Swamplaw Yankee
November 18, 2025 at 3:05 am
The 2025 MAGA POTUS Trump had the unique position to be the ethical cheerleader for the WEST. That is, the Leader of the WEST. and, what is that status?
The Historians can argue when exactly in 2025 Trump self-abdicated as Leader of the WEST. Certainly, when meeting with the chief opponent of the Yankee empire, the PRC CCP Xi, it was clear that Trump just could not find any leadership of the WEST inside his mental state. There was no Victory for the WEST is Victory for Ukraine inside of Trump!
Trump could have ended the 1000 year old Genocide of Ukrainians by the Kremlin Muscovy with one simple sentence that withers the Genetic need of the ruuzzkies to mass abduct + kill Ukrainians. Immediately remove your military back to the 2103 boundaries before your long planned invasion of Ukraine. Once, millions of Muscovy parasites determined that there will be no FREE Ukrainian real estate for them as in 1932-33 the whole effort to kill Ukrainians becomes financially useless.
The whole Genocide effort ends with a second sentence. That Putin immediately pre-pay in US gold bullion $10,000,000 compensation and reparation per each and every mass abducted child and tortured Ukrainian since 2014. Once hundreds of thousands of muscovites that culturally genocided mass abducted Ukrainian children for the last 12 years determine that they, the child thieve, are on the hook for $10,000,000 in compensation to the child, + that the 12 years of physical abuse was not free, the mad rush of muscovites to divorce themselves from Putin and the human trafficked children will be unstoppable.
Maga POTUS Trump could not utter these 2 sentences to stop the meat grinder front trench Genocide line that the Kremlin ruuzzkies have financed for the last 12 years.
Trump announced to Xi, that he is now a Monroe Doctrine Orange Scarecrow. Trump wishes to only control his back 20 or 30 acres. Xi stays out of the back 30 and Trump roams the back 30 as if Trump had not self-abdicated as the leader of the WEST.
Big show of US MILITARY Force, small show of US MILITARY Force, controlling the south is so very simple compared to the capacity needed to mentally out-play the out + out Genocide in Ukraine that Xi’s vassal Putin is into for the last dozen years.
The MAGA POTUS was just outplayed by Xi, as soon as Trump started to lie that his magical capacity to stop in 24 hours a 1000 year old Genocide! Xi knew that the PRC CCP had fished in a low capacity thinker in Foreign Policy, one who demeaned any expert advice so repeatedly when in the POTUS office.
Yes, the op-ed can still fill the pages with air carrier exercises run by the ruler of the Back 30! But, somewhere the new Leader of the WEST, a non-American is stirring. -30-
Krystal cane
November 18, 2025 at 10:49 am
Trump could not even spell geopolitics
Jim
November 18, 2025 at 11:30 am
I think the author is right. Trump does escalate to negotiate to bring leverage or pressure to gain the desired terms.
There was a New York Times story in October reporting Ambassador Ric Grenell extracted terms from Maduro to give American companies oil & mineral concessions on very favorable terms, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected the deal as only regime change was acceptable.
My suspicion is that Grenell indeed made the demand, but Maduro’s negotiators never responded one way or the other and Maduro never publicly acknowledged such a possible agreement.
So, the military buildup continued to the present time.
I also agree, a military invasion is unlikely because even with the sizable military assets in the region, it still isn’t enough carry out an invasion and march on Caracas, let alone an occupation as they notoriously have a short political shelf-life.
Venezuela’s oil is heavy and sour (high sulfur content) which requires specific refinery capability and it just so happens oil refineries were built here in the U. S. with the prospect to refine and process such types of oil… with Venezuela’s oil in mind.
Let’s hope an agreement can be reached between Maduro and the U. S. without the necessity of military action.
Is it a negotiation with the proverbial “gun to the head” style… it sure seems like it… we’ll see how it turns out… not my preferred style of negotiations.
J.W. Cox
November 18, 2025 at 1:26 pm
Mr. Balestrieri assumes an awful lot in this post, most especially that Trump’s “escalate to negotiate” is applicable to foreign and military policy, and specifically to the situation in Venezuela.
In the NATO and tariff examples that he cites, Trump had/has leverage: the US could have walked away from Nato; and, at least for now, Trump’s authority to impose punishing import duties on whomever and whatever he wants has not been conclusively challenged.
If anything, the North Korean example that Balestrieri cites shows the shortcomings of “escalate to negotiate.” He doesn’t cite any evidence that Trump’s threats frightened Kim into the summit meetings. The meetings themselves are hardly lasting achievements; and they resulted in NO concreate actions or consequences to stop, or slow down, or change North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. And the reason for that outcome is that Trump lacked leverage; without leverage, “escalation” is, literally, just words.
So far, a similar dynamic is playing out with Venezuela, except this time, Trump is escalating with military assets despite his lack of leverage. Even if the boats and lives that are being destroyed are involved in running drugs, destroying more of them doesn’t seem likely to weaken Maduro, except possibly at the margins.
The mere presence of 12,000 US troops and the world’s largest aircraft carrier, at least in this context, are meaningless if the Secretary of State is telling everyone that Trump won’t order air strikes on or an invasion of Venezuela. “We’re building up US military forces but we’re not going to use them,” doesn’t seem like a credible “escalation.”
On the other hand, Balestrieri seems to ignore that Trump sent US bombers to attack Iran. Trump apparently did so because he believed that he didn’t need leverage.
Finally, Balestrieri seems to think that Maduro just needs to think rationally about the benefits of whatever “deal” Trump has in mind. Plenty of countries under dictators have endured “shattered” economies for years, even decades. I’m not seeing evidence that Maduro can’t keep on doing what he’s doing.
I. Martin
November 18, 2025 at 4:00 pm
Unfortunately, I think Mr. Balestrieri is correct. Trump is using his “Art of the Deal” approach, which is a bad fit for geopolitics. Trump needs to make the case for why we should invade Venezuela. I suspect a decent case can be made. Congressional support is warranted. And then this bluff will be much more effective. The marines could take the Simon Bolivar Airport and we would fly in as many troops as needed. Chase Maduro into the jungle and see how he operates out there. Deny him a steady place to operate a government. I wouldn’t expect much after that.