Key Points and Summary – The Pentagon’s shocking decision to cancel the E-7 Wedgetail program threatens decades of American air superiority.
-Intended to replace the aging E-3 AWACS, the E-7 provides critical airborne early warning and battle management essential for combat in the Pacific. While the Defense Department points to future space-based systems, experts warn this technology is not mature enough to fill the void.
-This premature cancellation creates a dangerous capability gap, forcing a reliance on inadequate “Band-Aid” fixes, jeopardizing operations against China, and risking billions of dollars in allied investment in the proven Wedgetail platform.
The E-7 Wedgetail Must Be Saved
Elon Musk and his team are no longer prowling Washington, DC, but at the Pentagon, there is still damage control needed from the rush to slash programs.
For decades, American fighter and bomber pilots have counted on a massive advantage: airborne early warning that sweeps the skies for hundreds of miles to detect enemy fighter planes and missile threats.
The mission of the venerable E-3 AWACS rarely made headlines, but the eyes in the sky and the prime-time battle management have paved the way for successful air operations. The 2026 Air Force budget request aimed to field seven new E-7 Wedgetail radar planes by 2029 to maintain this capability and remain prepared for combat in the Pacific.
Now the plan is in disarray. A sudden Pentagon decision to scrap the acquisition of the E-7 could open up the most significant gap since the Vietnam War, and leave the Air Force to fall back on Navy planes and space satellites to fill in the gaps.
“We believe most of the ISR, or a great deal of ISR, in the future will be space-based,” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said of the E-7 decision.
True, but not in time to counter China.
The E-7 Remains Integral
Networks can now pass target tracks to pilots from multiple sources. Yet the E-7 remains vital to air battle management over the Pacific and in other theaters. The E-7 Wedgetail has already been proven in operations by Australia, Great Britain, and others, and has been deployed to assist the air defense picture for Ukraine. The E-7, like AWACS, tracks both aircraft and ships. In June, the E-7 demonstrated unmanned teaming with two MQ-28 Ghost Bat drones acting as loyal wingmen.
The shock cancellation threatens air superiority in the Pacific—bad news for all joint and allied forces. Chalk it up to a premature push to favor new space missions, ready or not.
Defense Department Pushes Past Experience
What the new Defense Department staff overlooked is the fact that the Air Force has been talking about moving Airborne Moving Target Indicator (AMTI) missions to space since at least the late 1990s. The Air Force would seize the opportunity to save money and carry out AMTI from space if it felt the capability was ready. But while space-based AMTI has improved dramatically, space systems are not yet mature enough to take over all the combined radar warning and battle management functions.
“This is a capability that our Air Force tells us we need,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) said recently of the E-7. “Nobody tells me we’re ready to transfer this capability into space. Eventually, we get it in space, we think, but you’ve got to worry about the here and now.”
Chief of the Space Force General Chance Saltzman explained that space offers a lot of advantages, but “it isn’t necessarily optimized for the full spectrum of operations that your military is going to be asked to do … and so that’s where I think you need a mix of systems.”
American forces have counted on the airborne early warning edge for so long that few remember what it was like for pilots to be blind to the broader air picture.
Air Superiority In Jeopardy
Airborne radar planes date back to the 1950s when the Lockheed EC-121 Warning Star provided additional coverage of the high north against Soviet bombers and missiles. The EC-121, the AWACS’ predecessor, was next deployed during the Vietnam War to offset the advantages of Chinese ground radar stations detecting US fighters.
Like its predecessors, the EC-121 and the E-3 AWACS, the E-7 has a gigantic, far-seeing radar. It also has banks of radios and communications and a crew aboard to carry out surveillance of all airborne traffic, identify enemy aircraft, and warn and vector friendly fighters to intercept. This battle management function is the heart of airborne early warning and not a mission that can be transplanted to space at present.
AWACS got heavy use deconflicting Coalition flight operations during the wars with Iraq. Imagine the target saturation over the Pacific with Chinese and Russian aircraft in the sky.
Given that full proliferated space constellations aren’t yet ready, another Band-Aid fix was for the Air Force to rely on the Navy’s carrier-based E-2D Hawkeye. The E-2D is a phenomenal fleet asset, as proven in the Red Sea and many other operations, but it is a smaller plane designed for a different mission set and built especially for carrier landings. Navy E-2Ds have practiced joint “hot refueling” at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam, but this should not be mistaken for a theater-wide combat surveillance capability.
China’s Growing Military Threat and the E-7
As with all forces deploying to the Indo-Pacific, survivability is an increased concern for the E-7. China is surging its military capabilities and presents challenges in both the “gray-zone” coercion operations around the littorals and bluewater scenarios near the Second Island Chain and beyond. This threat assessment is not new. Flying the AWACS in battle was never 100% safe. For the Air Force, the AWACS was regarded as more survivable in the air than a comparable radar system on the ground.
The 250-mile-plus range of the AWACS radar outstripped enemy missile ranges. Any enemy fighter foolish enough to close in on the AWACS would be in the glare of constant surveillance—easy pickings for a friendly fighter. Longer-range air-to-air missiles like China’s PL-15 have increased the risks across the theater. But the stark fact is that airborne early warning is more essential than ever in a mass air battle involving China. And space is not a sanctuary.
The preponderance of analysis shows that E-7 is a vital capability and indeed “critical to the China contingency.” Here’s another snarl for Congress to untangle.
Don’t forget about the Golden Dome. After 9/11, the demand for AWACS in the United States was so high that NATO invoked Article 5 to send allied AWACS to patrol US airspace. E-7s could be a vital part of any Golden Dome system activated to defend the United States.
Killing the E-7 Is a Big Mistake That Must Be Fixed
Killing the E-7 is also a bad business decision. For starters, the Air Force had a plan to leverage a $9 billion investment from Australia, Saudi Arabia, and others for E-7 radar and systems upgrades. That may collapse if the Pentagon’s decision holds. Furthermore, over 30 E-7s have been ordered by allies, including Canada. The allied investment makes E-7 one of the few new aircraft where allies are buying a leading share, all of which is now at risk.
Airborne battle management and moving target indicator functions may one day reside primarily in space. Until then, the warfighters must be heeded when they say they need E-7 Wedgetail.
About the Author: Dr. Rebecca Grant, Lexington Institute
Dr. Rebecca Grant, a Vice President at the Lexington Institute, is a national security analyst based in Washington, DC specializing in defense and aerospace research and national security consulting. She has over 20 years experience working with the United States Air Force, United States Navy, and top aerospace clients. In addition, Dr. Grant has often appeared on television as an expert on national security for Fox News, Fox Business, CNN, and MSNBC and as a series regular on The Smithsonian’s Air Warriors. Dr. Grant also writes on China, Russia and other technology and national security topics for Fox News Opinion. Her military books include 75 Great Airmen (with Lt. Gen. Chris Miller), The B-2 Goes to War, and Battle-Tested: Aircraft Carriers in Afghanistan and Iraq. Dr. Grant graduated from Wellesley College and earned a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics, University of London. You can follow her on X: @Rebeccagrantdc.
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Tindmish
August 1, 2025 at 12:59 pm
The E-7 is a big fat easy juicy target for long-range air-to-air missiles.
Its size and limited numbers mean easy day-to-day tracking by overhead satellite constellations.
As demonstrated in the may 2025 sindoor operation, satellites working with ground control plus airborne long-range missiles proved the undoing of highly advanced aircraft.
Canberra has been trying to pose as a creditable major player or critical player in the expected coming pacific clash, or Pacific war 2.0, with its AUKUS project and the E-7 flaunting, but Aussie politicians don’t realize if all-out war were to break out, they surely gonna last two days, at most.
Cuz, when the ugly struggle starts to rear its large head in the pacific, the first order of the day would be to take out the weakest with a nuclear punch.
Kill the chickin to impress the ape.
bobb
August 2, 2025 at 12:21 am
Puny small runt-type anglo nations like UK, Australia and canada should be more aware of today’s current or ongoing very rapidly churning circumstances or events.
The leader of the sole super superpower is now in a shaky shake mood and is unraveling.
Reason is Dems are using the obscure rule-of-five to force DoJ to release documents that could incriminate the leader !
As a result, the leader is ‘ordering’ or has ordered 2 SSBMs into ‘position’ for a highly possible nuke first-strike. World war three coming.
Be careful when the great leader is unraveling because he’s in little control of his emotions or his senses. Danger rises fast and time runs short. Head to the nearest hills. Quickly.
Swamplaw Yankee
August 3, 2025 at 3:38 am
Op-ed writers are sketchy on the lethal satellites that the axis of evil has in earth orbit. The current reality may ( already) be that a one-only data gathering venue, based in space, may be eliminated by the Zi-Putin axis within minutes. The peer reader just does not know, as this data is not revealed.
Grant does not mention if the E-7 air frame(s) ordered by Canada is concrete: signed and, most essentially, fully 100% funded. Or, can Canada back out? The lack of firm orders from Mexico and South America is to be noted by all analysts. -30-