Even Putin’s Biggest Hawks Believe Russia Can’t Win In Ukraine: Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing increasing pressure both at the front and within the country.
The Russian army’s offensive has been stopped, resources are being depleted, and Ukrainian drone strikes are hitting the logistics and economy of the Russian Federation increasingly hard.
Putin at November 2023 Science Fair Russian Government Photo
Reports confirm that even prominent Russian war hawks are increasingly admitting that Moscow cannot achieve an outright military victory in Ukraine. Despite mounting casualties and a prolonged conflict, these figures are privately and publicly acknowledging that Putin’s original and very ambitious goals (which none have been achieved) are unattainable.
Putin’s War Hawks Are Facing The Uncomfortable Truth on Ukraine
Oleg Tsaryov, a former Ukrainian lawmaker, MP, and prominent pro-Russian figure who was originally slated to lead a Moscow-backed puppet regime in Kyiv, openly admitted that it is clear Vladimir Putin cannot accomplish his total war goals.
A year after the invasion, in 2023, he was critically wounded in an assassination attempt attributed to Ukrainian intelligence. But he is certain that the war is now becoming unwinnable.
“Professionals at creating an alternative reality convinced not only the public but also themselves that the illusion they had concocted was real. Sooner or later, the worlds of illusion and reality would collide. Now, that is happening in the most painful way.”
Aleksey Chadaev, a former adviser to Vladimir Putin and a prominent figure in Russia’s military drone sector who runs the Ushkuynik drone-warfare research center, stated the unthinkable. He said that the current course of the war will not only lead to a failure of Putin’s goals,“but to a full-scale defeat.”
Chadaev wants Russia to pursue a ceasefire so that it can reorganize and adequately assess what follows.
Russian President Putin in 2024 Russian Federation Photo
Russia’s Hawks Are Calling For a Cessation Of Hostilities
Since Putin’s “special military operation” began in early 2022, Russia’s most fervent war supporters have called for escalation.
But that is now changing 180 degrees. Now they are questioning whether the country should continue the war at all.
Another Moscow war hawk, Anastasia Kashevarova, a well-known Russian war correspondent and former Duma press secretary, excoriated Russian military leadership after a series of successful Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russian territory.
“The enemy is hitting everything that moves on the roads,” stated, highlighting Ukraine’s growing ability to strike oil facilities, transport networks, and military infrastructure far beyond the front line. She further called out the military’s leadership, asking, “Are you going to fight?”
Russia’s Goals Are “Technically Impossible”
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dragged on for more than four years, and it appears that Russia, which thought that it’d take Kyiv in a few days and the entire country in a few weeks, is locked in a quagmire that it cannot win.
Russian academic Vasily Kashin, the Director of the prestigious Higher School of Economics’ Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, wrote a scathing article on the site “Russia in Global Affairs,” in which he stated that Russia cannot win the war.
“The elimination of the anti-Russian regime is fundamentally unattainable without a full military occupation of the entire country for a long period. For Russia, this is technically impossible.”
He added, “Hopes of annexing new large Ukrainian territories to Russia in the event of a hypothetical collapse of the Ukrainian front seem outlandish. Russia lacks the capacity to sustainably control and manage such territories.”
Vladimir Putin in Syria. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
According to Kashin, “We have no reason to expect the positional stalemate in the war in Ukraine to be overcome in the foreseeable future.” He added that “the idea that we can quickly collapse the Ukrainian front by ‘mobilizing, straining ourselves, and striking with all our might’ should also be discarded and forgotten. The Russian command is acting within its existing limitations, striving to achieve the best possible result.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating (conducted by government sources) is falling, although still high. But ordinary citizens are growing tired of a long war that is long on promises and short on results.
“The general mood is: enough, we’ve been fighting for too long already. It feels to everyone like this has lasted longer than World War II, and at the same time, we still can’t even capture a single region,” an anonymous Russian official said to the Washington Post.
“Five years into the conflict, some realize that another year or two of war will not significantly improve Russia’s negotiating position. It is clear to them that it is time to bring it to an end.
“Discussion of this issue among the elites is beginning to normalize – albeit with all the necessary caveats regarding loyalty. But does Putin realize this? There is no indication that he has changed his mind,” says Alexander Gabuev, Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Some Russian Hawks Want To Go Nuclear
One hawkish Russian figure, Sergei Karaganov, has repeatedly threatened the West with nuclear war if Ukraine does not surrender.
Russia’s intelligence service, the FSB, and the successor to the KGB, wants to escalate tensions with the Baltic states and the West.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes In St. Petersburg Were A Tipping Point
Ukrainian drone strikes have increasingly hit deep inside of Russia, and Putin’s major embarrassment was cemented by Ukrainian drone attacks that have targeted military and energy facilities in Crimea, occupied territories, and even St Petersburg, Putin’s home city.
Ukrainian drones struck energy and military sites in St Petersburg on Wednesday, hours before a large international economic forum gathered in the city.
Russia’s depleted and failing air defense systems failed to shoot down the Ukrainian drones as they slammed into oil storage facilities, and billowed huge plumes of smoke and fire after the strikes.
Ukrainian drones also hit the Kronstadt naval base and shipyard in Leningrad oblast, which is home to Russia’s Baltic fleet.
Video footage showed a Ukrainian drone flying low above the port and hitting a corvette, the Boikiy, which caught fire. The guided missile warship was in dry dock, undergoing repairs, when it was struck.
Oil Facilities In St. Petersburg Set Afire During The Forum
Ukrainian long-range drones have struck an oil terminal in St. Petersburg, setting it ablaze, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said on social media that the drones flew more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) to hit the terminal in Russia’s second-largest city, and Putin’s hometown.
Zelenskyy added that Russia’s oil industry and infrastructure are legitimate targets, and this attack came a day after a Russian attack on Ukraine killed 23 civilians and wounded 151 other people, as Moscow followed through with its threat of escalating its strikes on civilian targets.
“The Ukrainian plan of long-range sanctions is being implemented exactly as it is needed to bring peace closer,” Zelensky wrote, adding a euphemism for its long-distance strikes against Russia.
Ukraine was delighted to poke Putin and the Russian Bear with its gloating over the attacks. Denys Shtilierman of the Ukrainian defense company Fire Point posted on “X” formerly Twitter: “Due to such distinguished guests and the importance of the event itself, we couldn’t ignore it – and urgently flew to [St Petersburg].”
Russia’s Finance Minister Warns Of Cuts
This is taking a huge toll on an already strained Russian economy, with budgets feeling the pinch.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has already warned of large-scale spending cuts in all areas except defense and social payments.
“Our reserves are not limitless,” he said.
Bloomberg reported that Russian financial officials are warning Putin that the war is becoming too expensive for the Russian budget. The budget deficit is growing, economic growth has nearly stalled, and the military leadership is demanding billions more dollars to continue hostilities.
As Ukrainian drones regularly attack oil and gas infrastructure inside of Russia, hammer Russian supply convoys, and destroy the bridges between Russia and areas of occupied Ukraine, Russians of all walks of life, including Putin’s war hawks, are now questioning whether the war should continue.
But thus far, he’s ignoring the obvious signs that the war is being lost.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
