Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian military commander and a Member of Parliament, has warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to use tactical nuclear weapons if his nation were to face certain defeat in the Ukraine war. His comments were made at the beginning of the month, during which he made three major assertions.
Kostenko, who is a Colonel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that Putin might use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine’s military positions, infrastructure, or even large cities if the former KGB Lt. Col. feels his military is losing and that course is seen as irreversible. This assertion was made based on intelligence information, according to Ukrainian sources, and the projection is that the size of a Russian nuclear strike could range from several to dozens of kilotons in explosive force.
Finnish artillery units fire Howitzers At Rovajärvi exercise area In northern Finland. Image Credit: NATO.
Finnish artillery units fire Howitzers At Rovajärvi exercise area In northern Finland. Image Credit: NATO Flickr.
Russia and Tactical Nuclear Weapons: The Threat Is Real
What Kostenko has proposed, in preparation for just such a contingency, is legislation to create a new, separate national security strategy. That policy would specifically create structures and plans to be ready in the event of any biological, chemical, or nuclear threats.
His warning is being issued in parallel with statements by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has proclaimed that the war is entering a “new stage.” Part of that new phase of the conflict is Ukraine now striking strategic targets on multiple and/or consecutive days, such as the oil facility on the Black Sea at Tuapse or at a major oil storage facility in Perm.
The strikes on the Tuapse refinery are now estimated to have caused US$ 300 million in damages plus the loss of export revenue for Russia’s war effort.
What is the Nuclear Tripwire
In military terminology, the event that convinces a nation that its conventional forces are now ineffective and that the only way to stave off defeat is known as the “nuclear tripwire.” The term is frequently invoked in reference to long-standing scenarios, such as the Cold War days when NATO forces faced off against the Warsaw Pact, or the South Korea (ROK) situation should hostilities break out with the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK).
Kostenko, speaking to the Ukrainian news outlet Channel 24, said he could see the tripwire being activated if Putin sees there is no way to stave off a defeat on the battlefield. These strikes would be tactical nuclear weapons, say military analysts looking at the potential for this outcome, and the targeting would be more punitive than having any tangible effect in limiting the Ukrainians’ ability to continue the war.
Overall, says more than one military expert, the Russian use of nuclear weapons does very little– if anything – for Moscow should its conventional military situation reach such a dire state.
Almost three years ago, the former EUCOM commander and retired US Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges pointed out that the proverbial juice is not worth the squeeze, as they say, if Russia were to employ its tactical nuclear arsenal.
“You cannot kill 32,000 people with a tactical nuclear weapon unless they are all sitting inside the same football stadium,” he said. “And no one is playing football in this time of war.”
Tactical Realities
Other comments came from the Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who also described to Ukrainska Pravda two years ago how self-defeating the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine would be.
“We have no evidence that he [Putin] is preparing to use nuclear weapons,” Sikorski said.
The Polish minister also detailed that the former KGB functionary cannot single-handedly decide to launch a nuclear strike.
“He cannot utilize these [nuclear] weapons by just clicking a button. The standard line of command from the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff applies to its use. As a result, he must persuade his generals to obey such an order. These generals understand that obeying such an order would make them war criminals. At this point, they will have to choose between fulfilling such an order and getting rid of Putin,” Sikorski said.
Furthermore, Sikorski claimed that the US has “very decisively” informed Russia that it would use its conventional weapons “to destroy any Russian target in the occupied territories of Ukraine” if the Russian Federation launches a nuclear strike.
“I think this is a strong deterrent,” Sikorski added.
On another occasion, Sikorski described the other realities on the ground involving the use of nuclear weapons.
“The prevailing winds blow west to east in this part of the world,” he explained. “So, any residual radiation from a Russian strike ends up falling on his own soldiers” and largely on his own country. This fact – as he and other commentators have pointed out – would destroy what is left of any cohesion in his own military and would be suicide.
Russia’s president reportedly increasingly fears a coup that could remove him despite his dictatorial powers. That paranoia has had him living almost perpetually underground, in a series of bunkers, and has led him to conceal his movements. His actions in this manner very much parallel those of the Nazi German dictator Adolf Hitler in the final months of World War II.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two consecutive awards for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
