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Iran Has a Problem: Oil Traffic Through the Strait Near Qeshm Island Has Fallen to Virtually Zero Since the War Began

U.S. forces quietly struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday in what officials called defensive strikes, even as Trump insists the U.S. isn’t really at war and says Tehran wants a deal very badly. Fuel prices, meanwhile, are on track to be the highest for any midterm election in U.S. history.

A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor performs a vertical climb during the 2025 Marine Corps Base Hawaii (MCBH) Kaneohe Bay Air Show, at MCBH, Aug. 9, 2025. The Kaneohe Bay Air Show provided an opportunity to showcase the aircraft, equipment, and capabilities of the armed forces in the Indo-Pacific region to the local community. The air show, which contained aerial performances, static displays, demonstrations, and vendors, was designed to celebrate MCBH’s longstanding relationship with the local community. (U.S. Army photo by Pfc. Peter Bannister)
A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor performs a vertical climb during the 2025 Marine Corps Base Hawaii (MCBH) Kaneohe Bay Air Show, at MCBH, Aug. 9, 2025. The Kaneohe Bay Air Show provided an opportunity to showcase the aircraft, equipment, and capabilities of the armed forces in the Indo-Pacific region to the local community. The air show, which contained aerial performances, static displays, demonstrations, and vendors, was designed to celebrate MCBH’s longstanding relationship with the local community. (U.S. Army photo by Pfc. Peter Bannister)

On Monday, American forces carried out air strikes against Iran, targeting facilities on Qeshm Island, an Iranian island located on the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Wall Street Journal, the first to report the strikes, which were not previously publicized, wrote that they were carried out in secret, even as American President Donald Trump has recently talked up the possibility of striking a diplomatic deal with Iran’s embattled regime.

VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. (Sept. 20, 2025) The United States Air Force F-22 Demo Team performs at the 2025 Naval Air Station (NAS) Oceana Air Show aboard NAS Oceana, Sept. 20, 2025. The show’s theme celebrated 250 years of America’s navy and featured performances highlighting the precision, power, and innovation of naval aviation. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Apprentice Oliver McCain Vieira)

VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. (Sept. 20, 2025) The United States Air Force F-22 Demo Team performs at the 2025 Naval Air Station (NAS) Oceana Air Show aboard NAS Oceana, Sept. 20, 2025. The show’s theme celebrated 250 years of America’s navy and featured performances highlighting the precision, power, and innovation of naval aviation. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Apprentice Oliver McCain Vieira)

F-22

F-22 Raptor. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

“We had a war with Iran. We won,” Trump said, speaking to a group of reporters earlier this week. “I don’t know if you even call it a war because we haven’t been doing any fighting for months.”

While the president publicly and repeatedly eschewed engaging in renewed fighting with Iran, a measure believed to be aimed, at least in part, at stabilizing oil prices in the lead-up to the American elections this week, the Pentagon had nonetheless conducted some strikes against a variety of targets across Iran.

Those strikes were, however, rather modest compared to the opening stages of Operation Epic Fury, the name given to the ongoing war against Iran jointly launched by a combined Israeli-American force.

The Wall Street Journal reports that several of those smaller engagements were defensive in nature, and aimed at missiles, equipment, or personnel that had attempted to engage American warplanes.

Speaking to CNN, one unnamed official said that the strikes were “a defensive measure for Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against US assets.”

Qeshm Island is only about 14 miles from Bandar Abbas, located just off the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, and before the war was one of Iran’s more important port locations.

Before the war, it oversaw the transit of around 20 million barrels of oil through the strait, a number that has since fallen to virtually zero.

And while the United States has struck the island previously, these fresh strikes were not trumpeted like during the previous rounds of fighting.

A Return to War? Or a New Normal? And What About a Deal?

In an interview with Fox News, a news channel, President Trump appeared to suggest that the United States is not at war with Iran. “We’re not fighting a war. Everyone says ‘you’re at war!’ Well, when was the last time we fired anything? This isn’t a war — it’s a very soft war … But this isn’t like a war that’s going on. There’s no war raging,” the president said.

“It could happen if they don’t make a deal, but they want to make a deal very badly,y and there’s a very good chance we make a deal,” Trump added.

Earlier on Monday, Vice President JD Vance told a group of reporters that the United States’ negotiating team has made progress with their Iranian counterparts, even though he has previously admitted that the United States is not always entirely sure who exactly is calling the shots in Tehran.

“The Iranians are always a little unpredictable, and as the president always says, he retains kinetic options;s, he retains non-kinetic options.

But we’ve certainly made some progress.

We’ll see if we can make some more,” the vice president said.

He elaborated further, saying that both he as well as President Trump did feel “pretty good” about the prospects for peace.

Prices at the Pump

America’s midterm elections typically benefit the party out of power, and this year’s elections are anticipated to be no exception.

One of the deciding factors can be the price of fuel at the pump.

Though prices had been falling modestly before the news of renewed clashes broke out, their current levels are on track to be the highest fuel prices during a midterm election in American history.

Posting to Truth Social on Monday, the president, however, seemed to strike a defiant note. “Oil Prices are DROPPING LIKE A ROCK, down almost $10 a Barrel, A RECORD, because people feel that there will not be a War with Iran,” he wrote. “Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!”

The price of Brent Crude, a global energy benchmark, was trading at over $100 a barrel on Tuesday.

And while it is down somewhat from its recent highs of over $117 per barrel, it remains quite elevated compared to typical pre-war pricing.

About the Author: Caleb Larson

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, with a focus on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines in Donbas and writing about its civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.

Caleb Larson
Written By

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war's shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war's civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.

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