For the past several years, Iran has been facing severe water shortages due to drought and mismanagement. The country has entered a state of water bankruptcy, in which national demand exceeds what nature can reasonably provide. According to some estimates, per‑capita renewable water availability has fallen to roughly 850 cubic meters per year, well below the United Nations threshold for absolute scarcity. These problems have been further exacerbated by the current war with the United States and Israel, during which much of Iran’s energy and agricultural infrastructure has been targeted by air strikes.
Now, Iran is facing a crisis as it has to contend with the war while also dealing with the worsening water crisis.
Climate and Agriculture: The Biggest Strains on Iran’s Water Supply
Iran flag. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Iran’s climate has always been arid, but recent decades have brought conditions that strain even the most resilient ecosystems.
Rainfall has become increasingly rare, and what rain the country does get usually results in flooding.
Extended heat waves have become more frequent, with temperatures climbing high enough to force government offices in several provinces to close to reduce energy and water consumption.
Long-term projections suggest that Iran’s total water supply could fall from around 670 billion cubic meters in 2019 to roughly 540 billion cubic meters by 2080.
Agriculture has consumed the majority of Iran’s water supplies. The sector consumes more than 90 percent of the country’s water, much of it through inefficient flood irrigation. Water‑intensive crops such as wheat, rice, alfalfa, and sugar beet are grown even in regions where natural conditions make such cultivation unsustainable. For decades, government policy has encouraged agricultural expansion in the name of food self‑sufficiency, especially under the pressure of international sanctions. While this approach makes sense considering Iran’s position, it has placed enormous strain on the country’s rivers and water reservoirs.
While Iran possesses modern irrigation systems, they cover only a fraction of the country’s farmland, leaving most of the country dependent on methods that waste large amounts of water.
Iran F-14 Tomcat Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Effects on Iran’s Population
As a result, the country’s groundwater reservoirs have been seriously depleted. Iran extracts around 57 billion cubic meters of groundwater each year, accounting for nearly 9 percent of global extraction. More than half of the country’s aquifers are now in critical condition.
In many regions, wells that once provided reliable water have run dry, forcing farmers to drill deeper in search of diminishing reserves. This over‑pumping has caused widespread land subsidence, particularly in the central plateau.
Around Tehran, the ground is sinking at rates that could threaten civilian infrastructure. Once an aquifer collapses, it cannot be restored; the underground structure compacts permanently, losing its ability to store water. This irreversible damage is one of the most serious long-term consequences Iran faces.
Urban areas are also under immense pressure. Tehran, a city of roughly ten million people, has experienced repeated water shortages as reservoir levels fall and demand continues to rise. The city’s population grows by about 200,000 people each year, increasing the strain on an already fragile system. During the 2025 drought, reservoirs supplying the capital dropped to around 12 percent of capacity.
Government officials warned that if rainfall did not improve, rationing would become unavoidable, and in a worst‑case scenario, parts of the city might need to be evacuated.
The Role of Government Mismanagement
On top of all that, mismanagement from government agencies has exacerbated the problem. Water management in Iran is fragmented among multiple ministries and agencies, leading to overlapping responsibilities and inconsistent policies. Subsidies for water and energy encourage overuse, while development projects often proceed without adequate environmental assessment.
Sanctions from the West have limited access to modern water technologies and reduced the government’s ability to invest in large‑scale infrastructure improvements. Many experts argue that without significant administrative and political reforms, the crisis will continue to deepen regardless of technological solutions.
The long-term effects of the crisis are already becoming visible in the countryside. Rural communities have been hit hard by water shortages and forced to adapt to harsh conditions. Many villages have been abandoned as residents migrate to cities in search of work and reliable water supplies.
Protests have erupted in regions such as Isfahan and Khuzestan, where residents accuse authorities of mismanagement or unfair diversion of water resources. In urban areas, rationing and declining water quality contribute to public frustration and erode trust in government institutions. Water scarcity has become a national security concern, influencing internal stability and shaping Iran’s regional posture.
War and the Bleak Path Forward
As if all of that were not bad enough, the ongoing war in the Middle East has made the situation even worse for Iran. Recently, it was reported that the U.S. might have targeted the desalination plant on Qeshm Island, which supplies water to more than 30 villages. This has been denied by Washington. We will provide more information on this issue once it is available.
While the country relies on desalination plants for only 3% of its drinking water, the war has had a noticeable effect on its water supply. Other attacks on critical infrastructure have affected Iran’s energy grid and supply chains, which can quickly cascade to water shortages around the country.
The future for Iran does not look bright with the war continuing to wreak havoc on the country’s infrastructure. There are, however, some avenues of escape for the water-stricken nation. It can invest in less water-intensive energy sources, most notably solar energy, to reduce the energy sector’s water demand. It can also invest in more efficient irrigation systems nationwide to reduce waste.
However, under comprehensive U.S. sanctions, these solutions are difficult to implement, meaning Iran will likely be dependent on foreign assistance to meet its water needs, which runs counter to the country’s goal of self-sufficiency.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
