Vladimir Putin and his military are struggling. The army may be losing around 30,000 troops a month. Russian forces cannot maintain the initiative and are back on their heels. Ukraine is making great use of long-range one-way drones that continually sting Russia. Volodymyr Zelensky is also deploying excellent new homegrown ballistic and cruise missiles, such as the FP-5 Flamingo.
Russia Has Violated the Principles of Warfare
Ukraine Switchblade Drone. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
T-64 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russia is no longer able to mass troops and military hardware at the point of attack. There is no way attacking forces can surprise the Ukrainians tactically. Moscow does not have a clear, objective goal that would give Putin’s troops a complete and total victory. It is difficult for the Russians to concentrate combat power for a decisive attack.
Russia has also lost the art of maneuver. Repositioning forces to mass for an attack or to quickly move elements on the battlefield to exploit gaps in Ukrainian lines is not possible. Unity of command is questionable.
Who is calling the shots in this war? Putin has no prior military experience, yet he is acting as the commander of all forces with little input from his generals. There are no clear, overarching plans that reach the individual soldier.
No More Huge Russian Offensives
It is difficult for the Russians to mount a long, sustained offensive.
Ukrainian reconnaissance drones and satellite imagery that is supplied by the Americans allow the defenders to have prior warning. Russia’s tank corps is decimated and cannot produce the massive numbers required for a prolonged offensive.
Ukraine’s Use of Drones and Missiles Has Been Successful
Meanwhile, Ukraine is using its forces and weaponry effectively. Drone and missile strikes have punished Russian targets, and the Ukrainians have seized on tactics that can go on indefinitely with the production of first-person view drones and unmanned craft that are controlled by difficult-to-eliminate fiber optics.
Su-34 Fullback. Creator: Vitaly V. Kuzmin. Credit: Vitaly V. Kuzmin
Russia’s Energy Facilities Are Under Siege
These Ukrainian attacks are targeting Russian energy infrastructure. This creates high prices for gasoline and other refined products. The Tuapse refinery was hit this month, and the resulting destruction compounded fuel shortages. The strikes from Ukraine must be especially frustrating for the Russian people. The attacks happen every day thanks to the intrepid Ukrainian defense-industrial base. More drones and missiles can be manufactured cheaply and easily.
Ukraine continues to regain territory as Russian ground forces fall back. Putin’s forces can only play defense as they struggle to gain momentum and secure adequate positions on the front lines and along the flanks. There is no clear tactical response from Russia that could stop the bleeding.
Efforts to Resupply the Front Are Failing
Russia also has logistical problems. The incessant drone, artillery, and missile attacks in the rear echelon have hurt resupply efforts. The troops at the front are short on ammunition, food, and other supplies. The soldiers grow more frustrated as morale suffers.
Little Support at Home
On the home front, things are becoming dire. Putin needs citizens to support the war, but with all the casualties, it is difficult for people to give full approval for the conflict. Putin and his cronies have cracked down on all dissent. There is no anti-war effort bubbling up from ordinary Russians.
“As the Kremlin suddenly seems more vulnerable, its security services at home have made sudden, crude, sweeping steps to seize control of Russia’s internet, blocking access to popular social media and messaging apps, such as Instagram and Telegram, and trying to force people onto a state-controlled app. Authorities have imposed mobile internet blackouts, citing the threat from Ukrainian drones,” according to ABC News.
Putin in 2023. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
No Anti-war Effort from Dissidents
These efforts are creating a “fear state” in Russia. Civilians have no hope but to button up their mouths, put down their smartphones, and shrug their shoulders in frustration as Putin has counteracted any effort for popular opposition to the war. Many Russians likely have no idea of the total losses suffered by troops at the front.
The Economy Has Seen Better Days
The economy is struggling in places. The state is on a “war footing,” meaning growth is driven by defense spending and military hardware manufacturing. There is a shortage of qualified workers in the defense industry.
But the broader economy is struggling. Even Putin admitted on state-run television that GDP growth is struggling. Gross Domestic Product decreased 1.8 percent in February and January. For the entire year of 2025, GDP growth was only 1 percent. This is barely above recession levels. Young Russians do not have great job prospects. They can either join the military or work in the defense industry. Both options are considered unsatisfactory.
Russia is benefiting from high global oil prices, which are generating more revenue to finance the war. But the entire economy lacks diversity. The consumer sector is not strong. Other manufacturing sectors outside the defense industry lack vibrancy and growth.
Another problem for ordinary Russians is inflation and high interest rates. Russia’s central bank has implemented a tight-money policy by raising interest rates to fight inflation. The rouble simply does not go very far, and wages have not kept up with rising prices.
It’s Just Not a Great Situation for Russia
Meanwhile, the path forward for the war is unclear. Russia can execute the Kinetic Missile Fight and depend on its own drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian targets. This is unlikely to get Ukrainians to surrender or seek peace negotiations.
Putin seems to have no new ideas for the military effort. The air force lacks air superiority, and Russian warplanes have not fared well in the war. The ground forces are stuck in the mud, and there are no new ideas for reclaiming lost territory or advancing in maneuver warfare with armored attacks. These tactics have become useless.
Victory Day is Underwhelming
One symbolic sign of Russia’s struggles was its annual Victory Day celebrations on May 9. The military parade was a shadow of its former self. The event had barely any tanks and armored personnel carriers, which shows the dire condition of Putin’s armored warfare assets. Ukraine was certainly happy that Russia could not stage a parade replete with major military end items.
It Is Time for a Path to Peace
Look for both sides to agree on a ceasefire this year. This war is a stalemate with no end in sight. Putin is beginning to lose his grip on the armed forces and on the populace.
Russia continues to violate all principles of war that would lead to a victory. What will result is a frozen conflict in which both sides are divided by a demilitarized zone, resembling the situation on the Korean Peninsula. It is time for this war to end, and it may be Putin who finally decides to give up and pursue a peace process.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
