Key Points: Russia possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal (5,580 warheads) and has repeatedly threatened escalation over the Ukraine war.
-While the probability of use remains low, four main delivery systems are likely candidates for a “limited” tactical nuclear strike.
-These include the road-mobile Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile (400-500km range); the Mach 10, air-launched Kinzhal hypersonic missile; the Tu-22M3 “Backfire” supersonic bomber capable of carrying nuclear cruise missiles; and the SSC-8 (9M729) ground-launched cruise missile, whose development led to the collapse of the INF Treaty.
-These platforms provide Russia with versatile, hard-to-intercept nuclear options.
Putin Drops a Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine: How World War III Begins?
Talk of nuclear escalation in Ukraine has resurfaced in recent weeks. Since Russia raised its nuclear alert level in 2022, officials have repeatedly hinted that the use of these weapons – once considered unthinkable – is not an impossibility.
In July 2023, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, stated that if Ukraine’s counteroffensive succeeded, Moscow would be compelled to use nuclear weapons.
“Imagine if the.. offensive, which is backed by NATO, was a success and they tore off a part of our land then we would be forced to use a nuclear weapon according to the rules of a decree from the president of Russia,” Medvedev said. “There would simply be no other option. So our enemies should pray for our warriors’ (success). They are making sure that a global nuclear fire is not ignited.”
If Ukraine were to achieve some significant success using NATO weapons, or if Putin gets tired of fighting, he has a large arsenal of nuclear weapons at his disposal.
Russia’s Nuclear Arsenal
Russia possesses approximately 5,580 nuclear warheads, a figure that includes both deployed and non-deployed weapons, along with 1,200 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement.
Of these, around 1,718 are deployed strategic warheads, designed for large-scale destruction of enemy cities, military command centers, or other nuclear facilities. This number includes 870 warheads on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and approximately 200 stationed at heavy bomber bases. More than 1,100 additional warheads are held in storage, and the rest are classified as non-strategic, or tactical, nuclear weapons.
Strategic nuclear weapons are intended for long-range, high-impact strikes – typically against other nuclear powers – and generally yield between 90 and 450 kilotons. Tactical nuclear weapons, by contrast, are designed for battlefield use, often to gain a localized military advantage. Their yields are lower, typically under 20 kilotons, but that distinction is misleading. The atomic bomb dropped in Hiroshima in 1945, for example, was only 15 kilotons. In other words, even the smallest tactical nukes can cause catastrophic damage.
Russia’s deployed strategic warheads are distributed across three primary delivery systems. ICBMs, which are land-based missiles that are generally housed in underground silos, can deliver warheads across continents, including from Russia to the United States. Each missile can carry multiple warheads. SLBMs, which are launched from submarines, offer a stealthier and more survivable second-strike capability. Air-launched weapons are delivered by nuclear-capable bombers such as the Tu-160 “Blackjack” and the Tu-95MS “Bear.” The Tu-160 can carry up to 12 nuclear-capable cruise missiles; the Tu-95MS can carry up to 16.
Russia’s non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons are stored at centralized bases, including twelve large national-level storage sites and approximately 35 additional base-level facilities.
Russia’s Four Main Delivery Systems
Russia’s nuclear arsenal is not just vast, but also versatile. Its warheads can be delivered by a range of missile systems, each with their own distinct characteristics. Some are designed for strategic deterrence while others are designed to be battlefield weapons, theoretically suited for more “limited” use – whatever “limited” means, these days, when tactical nuclear weapons are now several times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.
To reiterate: the likelihood of Putin using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine remains low, but it is not zero. If the Russian president does choose to escalate the war to a nuclear level, there are four delivery systems that stand out as likely candidates for any strikes.
One of the most frequently discussed is the 9K720 Iskander-M, a short-range ballistic missile with a range of 400 to 500 kilometers. Designed for precision strikes against high-value targets, the Iskander can carry either a conventional or nuclear warhead, reportedly with a yield between 10 and 50 kilotons. It is road-mobile and has already been deployed in Kaliningrad and possibly Crimea. Its ability to evade missile defense systems makes it particularly dangerous in a regional battlefield context.
Another option is the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, a hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile with a range of approximately 2,000 kilometers and a top speed of up to Mach 10. The Kinzhal can also carry a nuclear warhead, estimated between 5 and 50 kilotons, and is designed for rapid strikes on time-sensitive targets. Carried by MiG-31K and Tu-22M3 aircraft, the Kinzhal is also difficult to intercept.
The Tu-22M3 “Backfire” bomber is another key part of Russia’s nuclear delivery infrastructure. A supersonic strategic bomber, it can travel as far as 7,000 kilometers with aerial refueling and carry up to 24,000 kilograms of ordnance (supplies like guns, rockets, and nuclear-capable cruise missiles. Operating from airbases within Russia, it is designed to penetrate deep into enemy territory and carry nuclear payloads across continents. The Tu-22M3 could, in theory, deliver nuclear strikes on NATO countries, if the conflict were to ever reach such an unimaginable height.
Finally, there is the SSC-8 (9M729), a ground-launched cruise missile with an estimated range of 500 to 2,500 kilometers. The SSC-8 is launched from mobile platforms, can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, and has drawn particular attention as a result of its role in the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty.
The INF, a landmark arms control agreement signed in 1987 by the United States and Soviet Union, banned all ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, along with their launchers. The treaty collapsed in 2019, however, after the United States withdrew, citing Russia’s development of the SSC-8. Its deployment increased Russia’s ability to strike targets throughout Europe with little warning.
Whether any of these weapons are ever used depends on many factors, and while Russia has many reasons not to deploy nuclear weapons – as I explained here – there’s no telling what decisions could be made if the Kremlin believes there is an existential threat to its regime and country.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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