Key Points – Following Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike on Russian strategic bombers (June 1st), concerns about potential Russian nuclear escalation have resurfaced, with Kremlin advisers reportedly warning the Trump administration of growing risks.
-While Vladimir Putin has vowed retaliation and has a history of nuclear saber-rattling, including discussions of tactical nuclear weapon use, actually employing them remains improbable.
-Key deterrents include the devastating economic repercussions from further international sanctions, an unpredictable and potentially overwhelming NATO response, and explicit opposition to nuclear use or threats from crucial partners like China’s Xi Jinping and India’s Narendra Modi.
-Such an escalation would likely not advance Putin’s strategic objectives.
The Ukraine War Becomes a Nuclear War?
As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to respond to Ukraine’s surprise drone attack on four Russian airbases, Kremlin advisers have warned U.S. President Donald Trump that the likelihood of a nuclear confrontation is growing.
Trump’s own advisers have echoed comments made by the Kremlin, not endorsing the idea but making the U.S. president aware of the growing possibility of a nuclear weapon being deployed.
Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund, wrote online that Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web deliberately targeted Russian nuclear assets – a reference to the destruction of nuclear-capable Tu-22M3 bombers – and argued that the assault increases the likelihood of a Third World War.
“Clear communication is urgent – to grasp reality and the rising risks before it’s too late,” Dmitriev said.
While the Russian president has not explicitly warned that he will respond to the attack using nuclear weapons, he did make it clear during a phone call this week with President Trump that he felt compelled to retaliate.
Putin also indicated that efforts to negotiate peace would be put on the backburner while the Kremlin prepares to respond.
“President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields,” Trump said following their phone call.
Nuclear Options Have Always Been in the Cards
The suggestion that Putin may use nuclear weapons in Ukraine is not new. In fact, the possibility has been floated not only by concerned Western analysts and leaders but by Russian officials over the last three years.
Just three days after launching the invasion of Ukraine, on February 27, 2022, Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces to be placed on a “special regime of combat duty,” raising their nuclear alert status. The move was widely seen as a warning to NATO against intervening in the conflict.
In September of that same year, in a televised address, Putin warned that Russia would use all means at its disposal to protect itself, adding, “this is not a bluff.”
In 2022, a popular Russian state television anchor offered an insight into the kind of nuclear strike Russia might launch, arguing that Moscow could approve the deployment of its Poseidon nuclear underwater drone, which could drown the United Kingdom under a 500-metre tidal wave of radioactive seawater.
The use of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs), meant for battlefield use for the purpose of destroying military targets like troop concentrations or command centers, has also been floated as a possibility in the conflict.
In October 2022, Chechen Republic leader Ramzan Kadyrov publicly called for Russia to use low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine following setbacks on the battlefield, and while it was not an official policy statement from Russia, it raised speculation that Russia might be considering ways to deploy nuclear weapons without escalating to a full-scale nuclear war.
Given that TNWs can have yields ranging from 0.1 to 50 kilotons – in some cases exceeding the 15-kiloton bomb dropped on Hiroshima – the notion that their use would be less serious or more ‘limited’ has been widely dismissed as a dangerous illusion.
Ukraine Nuclear War? Why Putin (Probably) Won’t Do It
While nuclear attacks have always been on the cards, and it now seems as though Putin is seriously weighing his nuclear options, there remain many good reasons the Russian president won’t go this far.
Already under immense economic pressure from international sanctions, and aware of President Trump’s efforts to reduce global oil prices – a move that could hurt Russia’s already delicate wartime economy – Putin is presumably aware that deploying nuclear weapons could alter global dynamics in a way that puts his country at even greater risk. It is entirely uncertain how other global players would respond to the strikes, how seriously NATO would respond, and if war against NATO is something Moscow could actually sustain for any meaningful length of time.
China and India, key diplomatic and economic partners of Russia respectively, also have their own red lines. In November, 2022, President Xi Jinping warned against the use or threat of nuclear weapons.
“The international community should jointly oppose the use or threats of using nuclear weapons,” Xi said following a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Nuclear war would put serious economic strain on China’s manufacturing economy, with both the possible spread of radiation and political instability causing damage to global supply chains. It could also force Beijing to distance itself from Russia or impose its own direct sanctions.
In 2022, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also made it clear that he opposed the conflict in Ukraine, despite continuing to do business with Russia’s energy sector, noting that “today’s era is not an era of war.” India, like China, also values strategic predictability. A nuclear strike would upend the rules of global conflict, potentially ignite a new arms race across Asia, and also force India to choose between maintaining diplomatic ties with the West or backing Russia.
While a nuclear strike remains a possibility, particularly after Ukraine’s surprise drone strike, it is difficult to envision how such an escalation would advance Putin’s strategic objectives at this stage.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
The Best Tanks on Earth
AbramsX: The Tank the US Army Wants
Pingback: Putin Might Have Had His 'Worst Week' of the Ukraine War - National Security Journal